ISTANBUL OFFICE CALLS UNDERLINE IMPORTANCE OF

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000868 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2022 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU IR IZ SUBJECT: ISTANBUL OFFICE CALLS UNDERLINE IMPORTANCE OF ECONOMY ON POLITICS REF: A. ISTANBUL 624 ¶B. STATE 132207 ¶C. ANKARA 2350 Classified By: Consul General Sharon Wiener for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) . ¶1. (C) Summary and comment. EUR/SE desk officer Danielle Garbe met recently with TESEV President Can Paker, former Special Envoy General Edip Baser and academician Kemal Kirisci to hear views on Turkey's domestic politics, its foreign relations and the bureaucracy's view of the fight against the PKK. A common theme in two of three meetings was the importance of Turkey's growing economy on political and foreign policy decisions. As democracy and the economy strengthen and mature, Turks and their more responsive - and probably freer - politicians may take another look at the bottom line and ask how agreements and alliances affect their economic well-being and security. If allies want to stay in the game, they may be forced to play with a closer eye on economic rather than traditional, security-based partnerships. And if the traditional elite suspect we're less than transparent on a point they claim is central to Turkish security - the PKK - the game gets harder. These comments echo the message TOBB Chairman Rifat Hisarciklioglu recently made to EEB A/S Sullivan in Washington -- strong economic ties can bolster the bilateral relationship during tense political periods. (Ref B.) End summary and comment. FIRST - A WORD FROM THE SEASONED ELITE -------------- ¶2. (S) General Baser, referring to September 11 headlines claiming direct American assistance to PKK and/or PJAK terrorists in Iraq, elaborated upon his July claim that Turkish intelligence had captured Americans on film at Kandil Mountain (Ref A.) As Turkey's former Special Envoy to Combat the PKK, he told Garbe that he and U.S. Special Envoy General (ret.) Joseph Ralston had together viewed media in TGS Buyukanit's office depicting "Barzani's people supplying food, water and ammunition to PKK" in northern Iraq. The tape also showed "a few American soldiers in the background." According to Baser, Ralston's later explanation, after sharing the footage in the U.S., was that "the soldiers were there by chance - passers-by near a PKK control post." No Turk is satisfied with that response, according to Baser. Baser said the soldiers were recognizable as Americans because of their uniforms and the appearance of their faces and skin color. He expressed surprise the U.S. had not used psychological warfare against the PKK. The General also proffered a defensive statement that poor economic and social conditions in Turkey's southeast were no different than conditions in villages near the Aegean and in central Turkey because of poor civil administration. CAN PAKER: POLITICS IS FREER -------------- ¶3. (C) TESEV President Can Paker on the other hand focused on Justice and Development Party's (AKP's) success in Parliamentary elections and the election of Abdullah Gul as President of Turkey. According to Paker, a new era has dawned in Turkish politics - an era marked by a lack of civil/military bureaucratic monitoring of politics. From its foundation as a republic until now, Turkey's "masters and founders" had manipulated the political process by means of the presidency, A new middle class spawned by economic liberalization in the late 1980s has overtaken Turkey's "traditional, privileged, self-described 'secular' middle class" founded and protected since the formation of the republic in 1923. Paker said TESEV surveys indicate a new entrepreneurial class - both rational and practical owing to success through hard work - now accounts for about 70% of Turkey's middle class with the balance held by the classical, "conceptually rational" and educated middle class, identified with the civil and military bureaucratic elites. Today, both wings of the middle class fear the other. ¶4. (C) The military exploits the fear of the (more devout) entrepreneurs, according to Paker, by playing the secular card; he believes the new President will not take the bait. Ten year ago, with Abdullah Gul sitting in his office, Paker counseled Gul to avoid politicking on the basis of religion and nationalism because Turks do not vote based on those factors. Gul had laughed and related an experience, years before, when he had begun to wax eloquent on religion in a ISTANBUL 00000868 002 OF 002 rural tea house. Within five minutes, he lost his audience; they were more interested in better harvests, acquiring adequate farm equipment and getting their daughters married. Gul has not been forgotten the lesson: his countrymen are practical, not focused on the esoterica of Islam. ¶5. (C) Paker discounted the possibility of a military intervention against the current government because the resulting economic disruption would be too great for them to "survive." The economy today boasts a USD 400 billion GDP, doubling the USD 200 billion economy before the crisis of 2001 when the GDP shrank to USD 186 billion. A military coup would severely damage the economy and scare off foreign investment. The military, in these circumstances, "would be finished," according to Paker. KEMAL KIRISCI: IT'S THE ECONOMY... -------------- ¶6. (C) Professor Kemal Kirisci, Chairman of Bogazici University's faculty of Political Science and International Relations, agreed in large part with Paker's views. He framed his academician's perspective, though, by alluding to Immanuel Kant's idea of a democratic peace and Richard Rosecrance's theory of healthy, modern state-to-state relations based on trade. He suggested both theories illustrated why Turkey did not carry out a cross-border operation against the PKK in northern Iraq early this summer, arguing that not only business fora TUSIAD and TOBB but even Republican People's Party's (CHP's) own Deniz Baykal pressured the military against a CBO in light of the potential harm to trade. Turkey, he said, had become a "trading economy," ala Rosecrance, whose economic strength compared favorably with most of its neighbors. The only exceptions are Greece, Russia and Iran. Turkey only lags behind the latter two because of their significant energy reserves. ¶7. (C) Kirisci said Turkey's stability and economic growth are now a (small) engine of growth for the region, citing Turkish business retailing and industrial expansion in neighboring countries, including Bulgaria. The implications of Turkey's becoming a "trading state" have profound implications for the U.S.-Turkey relationship, according to Kirisci, with Turkey tilting ever more definitely to states whose trading relationship complements Turkey's economic growth. It was for reasons of trade he speculated the GOT would "pull something off" with respect to a solution for Cyprus. ¶8. (C) Even luminaries in the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) have significant economic interests in northern Iraq which will influence their view of that relationship, he claimed. The AKP mayor of Kars, near Turkey's border with Armenia, strongly favors opening Turkey's border with that country. In a good-natured poke at his guests, Kirisci wondered if somehow the U.S. could "nudge" democracy forward in America - Turkey is now a full-fledged democracy, he maintained, and politicians here look over their shoulders, meaning the public will for peace and growing economic security will continue changing the way Turkey's politicians view their neighborhood and their relationship with the U.S. WIENER