AN IRANIAN ACTIVIST'S ADVICE ON REACHING THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISTANBUL 000855 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - ADDRRESSEE ADDED NOFORN SIPDIS LONDON FOR GAYLE, BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD BAKU FOR HAUGEN; DUBAI FOR IRPO E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM IR TU SUBJECT: AN IRANIAN ACTIVIST'S ADVICE ON REACHING THE IRANIAN PEOPLE ISTANBUL 00000855 001.4 OF 003 Classified By: Sandra Oudkirk, Deputy Principal Officer; U.S. Consulate General Istanbul REASON: 1.4 (d) 1.(C//NF) Summary: Istanbul "Iran watcher" met with visiting Iranian artist/human rights activist Parastou Forouhar September 17 to discuss the current climate in Iran and USG efforts to reach out to the Iranian people. Forouhar welcomed the USG,s decision to train more diplomats in Farsi and post them near Iran; urged Washington to give highest priority to confronting the regime on human rights rather than the nuclear program; said Iranian activists need more Internet-related support; and speculated that younger politically-active Iranians were watching Turkey,s AKP party as a possible future model for Iran. End Summary. Dinner with an Iranian dissident -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) Istanbul Iran watcher met with Ms. Forouhar in Istanbul for a wide-ranging dinner discussion about Iran. (Post thanks Embassy Berlin,s Iran watcher for forwarding the contact.) Forouhar is a well-known artist and activist whose renown comes in part from her efforts to press the regime in 1998-99 to investigate the brutal murder by regime thugs of her parents in November 1998. She has been living in Germany since 1991 but travels back to Iran every year to maintain links with Iranian artists and human rights activists and to commemorate the anniversary of her parents, deaths. Forouhar is staying in Istanbul until October, then plans to visit Iran for several months if the regime allows, before returning to her family in Germany. More people-to-people exchanges needed -------------- ¶3. (C/NF) Forouhar offered enthusiastic support for State,s efforts to develop a cadre of Farsi speaking diplomats and post them regionally for the purpose of better understanding developments inside Iran. She noted that word of the USG,s interest in learning more about daily life in Iran from Iranians themselves, as well as the recent increase in IVLP programs for Iranians, had given an emotional boost to many of her activist colleagues. "These programs are your best advertisement that you care about the Iranian people. But we need ten times as many people-to-people exchanges. Instead of ten programs every year, fund fifty." ¶4. (C/NF) Forouhar urged that the USG not shy away from controversial IVLP programs, encouraging more programs for on human rights (especially women,s rights) activists. "Let them decide if they are willing to take the risk and come. Many still will." She said that decisions like the one by the Open Society Institute (OSI) to cease its human rights-related programs in favor of safer programs out of concern for program partners only reinforces to the regime that its clamp-down tactics are working. Forouhar also suggested IVLP programs to invite the younger generation of (non-IRGC-affiliated) journalists, judges, politicians, police, and other GOI-controlled professions. "They are the ones you need to reach out to." She speculated that the regime would try to stop them but felt that even just an invitation to participate would be a useful signal, and despite the risks some might even accept. ¶5. (C/NF) Regarding training and assistance for Iranian civil society and human rights groups, Forouhar urged that we focus on Internet capacity-building that will help NGOs, individuals, and web-logs inside Iran stay online. She said the Internet, and to a lesser degree satellite television, serves as a lifeline for her colleagues inside Iran. She described the constant efforts by the regime to filter sites and block the information flow, and the constant counter-efforts by Iranians to stay online, one step ahead of the regime. Any helpful training or software that can protect Internet users from such filtering would be of critical value. Whisper about the nuclear program, yell about human rights -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) Queried about Iranian popular reactions to USG pressure on the regime, Forouhar suggested that the Iranian people do not care about the nuclear program, but they also bristle when the only statements they hear from Washington, London, and Paris harp about stopping Iran from developing this technology. "If you and the UN believe it is important ISTANBUL 00000855 002.4 OF 003 to stop this program, go ahead but do it more quietly." What the Iranian people need to hear is Washington, London, and the UN "yelling at Iran" over its brutal human rights record. Forouhar said that only such an effort would prove to Iranians that the international community cares about their lives and living conditions. ¶7. (C/NF) In this vein, Forouhar welcomed the recent letter sent by Iranian pro-democracy activist Akbar Ganji to UNSYG Ban Ki-Moon describing the systematic human rights abuses of the regime. Forouhar agrees with Ganji that the regime,s human rights record should be the UN,s first priority when it confronts the regime. She acknowledged the challenge of raising Iran,s human rights record at the UNSC given the likely opposition of other human rights "abusers" on the Council to such a focus. But if Iranians saw that the U.S. or EU was still trying to do so, "it would give them hope, and it would still put the regime even more on the defensive." A Mossadegh renaissance? -------------- ¶8. (C/NF) Asked about the future of the reformist movement in Iran, and whether a future pro-democracy leader could emerge out of this system, Forouhar expounded on Iran,s historical fixation with heroes. "Iranians love heroes. We are waiting for Rostam (e.g., Rostam and Sohrab, from the Persian "Epic of Kings") to protect us, but that is the problem: everyone is waiting for someone else to be the hero." She surmised that most Iranian activists feel so embittered about the lost opportunities and "betrayal" under former President Khatami that they do not trust any politician working within the system, and they do not seen any other pro-democracy activists (e.g., Ganji) as having the leadership ability necessary to successfully challenge the system. ¶9. (C/NF) According to Forouhar, the only Iranian leader most reformers still gain any inspiration from is former Prime Minister Mossadegh, overthrown in a US/UK engineered coup in 1953. She noted that even some in the regime have begun to use his legacy in their rhetoric, pointing to his success at nationalizing Iran,s oil resources. "They want the people to think they are doing the same thing with the nuclear program." But she cautioned, with a subversive smile, that this could haunt them. "The more the younger generation hears about Mossadegh -- noble, secular, western educated but fiercely nationalistic, the more they will wish for a leader just like him -- including the secular part." Anything the USG could do to indirectly encourage a "Mossadegh renaissance" in Iran would likely end up in increasing domestic pressure on the "un-Mossadegh" regime. We,re watching the AKP -------------- ¶10. (C/NF) Asked her view of the future of Iran,s theocratic style of government, she predicted that the "velyat-e faqih" system under which the Supreme Leader claims a mandate from God was likely to change, maybe as soon as Khamenei passes away. "Almost the entire population, even some younger mullahs, think this is a corruption." Acknowledging that devotion to (Shia) Islam is an essential aspect of Iranian national character, she underscored that many Iranians were watching closely what happens in Turkey, with the moderate Islamic "Justice and Development" Party (AKP) now controlling the Presidency, Prime Ministry, and Parliament. Fourhar explained that if the AKP continues to have economic success, and can show how to govern effectively as an Islamist party (albeit Sunni) in a secular system, this may have a profound impact on Iranians. She suggested the USG encourage the AKP to reach out to younger politically active Iranians and bring them to Turkey on IVLP-type programs. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C/NF) The chain-smoking, forty-five year-old Forouhar was a lively and relaxed interlocutor, and claimed she felt no risk in meeting with a USG official even as she is preparing to return to Iran. Her views tend to track with what one would expect from a fierce opponent of the regime and a strong secularist, with some interesting exceptions (e.g., her interest in the AKP model). Although a German ISTANBUL 00000855 003.4 OF 003 resident since 1991, her stature as a fearless and vocal advocate for familes of victims of the regime appears to have allowed her to enjoy close contacts with many human rights activists still in Iran. During the conversation, the Iran watcher explained both the policy and funding constraints that may preclude the USG from pursuing at least some of her advice on reaching the Iranian people. But we pass back her comments in detail as potentially reflecting the views of at least some activists in Iran and underscoring the close attention they are paying to USG "Iran watching" efforts and our democracy- and human-rights-related programs. End comment. WIENER