AKP MP VAHIT ERDEM ON BILATERAL RELATIONS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000690 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER TU SUBJECT: AKP MP VAHIT ERDEM ON BILATERAL RELATIONS, PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS Classified By: Classified by Acting Principal Officer Sandra Oudkirk ¶1. (C) Summary. Justice and Development Party (AKP) MP Vahit Erdem argued that the U.S. offers the only viable strategic partnership for Turkey, but noted that U.S. Iraq policy is an enormous problem and cautioned that only concrete U.S. action against the PKK in Northern Iraq could ease the pressure for a cross border operation. He expects that AKP will nominate Abdullah Gul for the presidency unless Gul withdraws, a step Erdem hopes Gul will take. Erdem believes the symbolic effect of a headscarf-wearing Turkish president's wife would be negative and should be avoided. End Summary. Strategic Vision -------------- ¶2. (C) Recently re-elected Kirikkale MP Vahit Erdem described AKP's vision for a second term as an extension of former President Turgut Ozal's goal of a strategic relationship with the United States based on defense, economic and regional cooperation. He agreed that Turkey needs to have good relations with neighboring countries but asserted that only the U.S. offered a truly "strategic" relationship. Turkish-Russian, Turkish-Chinese and even Turkish-EU relations are fraught with historical tension and competing national goals and would never be as close or as mutually beneficial as the U.S. - Turkish relationship. ¶3. (C) He described his role within AKP as an advocate in favor of the March 1, 2003 resolution, and noted that much work needed to be done to restore public faith in the bilateral relationship. He argued that Turkish leaders must do more to describe to the public how the U.S. supports Turkey and cited three areas where U.S political support had been vital for Turkey's national interests: the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline; the events surrounding the capture of Abdullah Ocalan; and the now almost concluded IMF program. PKK activities in Northern Iraq and the appearance that the U.S. is "not doing enough to support Turkey" are an enormous problem for the government. Erdem said he realized Turkish military action in Northern Iraq would adversely affect both Northern Iraq and Southeastern Turkey, but he argued that without "concrete action", such as the hand-over of a senior PKK official within the next one to two months, the pressure for a cross border operation would become irresistible. ¶4. (C) Erdem claimed that he intends to reach out to the newly-elected pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) members of parliament. He hopes recent public comments are true and they will act in a constructive manner while in parliament. He adhered to the standard line on Kurdish aspirations noting that Kurds are Turks and there is no limit to advancement within the Turkish state for Kurdish citizens. He argued that terrorism is a result of isolation, poverty, tribalism and the lack of readily available government services. The strong AKP showing in the Southeast is proof, he argued, that people in the Southeast are looking for "normal politics." Outreach to DTP can help make this happen if DTP will avoid provocation and work with the new government to set achievable goals. Presidential Politics -------------- ¶5. (C) Erdem argued that previous coups have eaten away at Turkish democracy. The current party list system, giving party leaders much more control than regular party members, dates to the 1980 elections which were organized quickly and led to party leaders selecting candidates without input from the membership as a whole. This gave the party leaders much more control and is still reflected in the current system. Control is not absolute, however. Erdem noted that AKP party leader PM Erdogan and FM Gul appear to be working at cros purposes with regard to the presidential electons, with Gul all but declaring his candidacy jut days after Erdogan claimed to be looking for aconsensus candidate. ¶6. (C) With the National Moement Party's (MHP) agreement to attend the presdential elections, AKP will be able to select th next president on the third round of voting, and rdem indicated that the AKP is unlikely to abandn Gul. Erdem said he "doesn't want Gul as presidnt" and believes PM Erdogan would prefer to avoi the controversy that a Gul candidacy is sure to cause. He personally hoped the AKP was able to select a candidate with an uncovered wife. Turkey has been a "symbol of modernity" in the Islamic world since ISTANBUL 00000690 002 OF 002 Ataturk's time. Having a Turkish president's wife who wears an Islamic headscarf when the wives of the senior leaders in Jordan, Syria and Egypt do not, would convey an incorrect, unrepresentative image, he argued. Erdem underscored the need to select a strong president, who would play a statesmanlike role for the next seven years. He indicated that whoever is selected as president will serve a full term irrespective of the results of the October referendum on the direct election of the president. ¶7. (C) Comment. Erdem is a technocrat and was believed to be a candidate for Defense Minister in the previous government. He is an internationalist and a strong supporter of close ties with the U.S. both within the NATO framework and bilaterally. His views on the PKK in Northern Iraq and the Kurdish question break no new ground. However, his vocal and unsolicited take on the 'headscarf in Cankaya' issue demonstrate that the AKP is not a monolith on social issues. End Comment. Bio Notes -------------- ¶8. (U) Vahit Erdem is a second term AKP MP from Kirikkale Province. Before entering political life he was a career bureaucrat in the State Planning Organization. He founded the Undersecretariat for Military Industries (SSM) and served as undersecretary for eight years. He also served as general secretary of the Grand National Assembly, Prime Ministry SIPDIS Senior Advisor and Presidential Deputy Secretary General. During his first term as an MP he headed the Turkish delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, where he served as one of four vice presidents. He has an undergraduate degree from Istanbul Technical University and a masters degree from Bradford University (UK). He is married and has three adult children, all of whom were educated in the United States. OUDKIRK