SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF CONGRESSMAN ROHRABACHER

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISTANBUL 001011 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR H, EUR FOR CONGRESSMAN ROHRABACHER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017 TAGS: OREP AMGT ASEC AFIN TU SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF CONGRESSMAN ROHRABACHER TO ISTANBUL REF: STATE 155972 Classified By: Consul General Sharon A. Wiener for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Your visit to Istanbul follows President Bush's successful November 5 meeting with PM Erdogan in Washington and Secretary Rice's constructive Ankara meetings with Erdogan, President Gul and FM Babacan on November 2. The President and Secretary Rice greatly improved Turkish-American relations by pledging increased, real-time intelligence sharing to help eradicate the terrorist PKK organization. Follow through on this pledge, along with the suspension of action on Congress's Armenian genocide resolution (H.R. 106),opens a window for discussions on other key bilateral issues which should lead to strengthened relations. Media and the public remain wary that Turkey will be put off once again with words instead of results. End summary. Turkey and Iraq -------------- ¶2. (C) Despite ongoing tensions, Turkey and Iraq are both benefiting from Ankara's consistent push to support the Iraqi central government. The GOT has continued to try to help PM Maliki consolidate central government control through regular Sunni outreach (including inviting VP al-Hashimi twice in recent months),as well as the August Maliki visit to Ankara. The Turks maintain a consulate in Mosul and are opening another in Basra. And at the high water mark in bilateral tensions, FM Babacan made the first high-level GOT visit since 2003 to Baghdad October 23, taking Turkey's message directly to the full array of Iraqi leadership. USG pressure on Iraqi Kurdish leaders to interrupt PKK operations in northern Iraq and other measures agreed to at the November 3 Iraq Neighbors Ministerial in Istanbul have also improved relations. The lull in tensions may be short-lived if the PKK launches more violent attacks or an impatient and frustrated Turkish public fails to see the concrete action against the PKK it demands. Political Overview -------------- ¶3. (C) Erdogan's Government: Since the July parliamentary election, when the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) won 46.7% of the vote, PM Erdogan's new government has been event-driven. First came a contentious presidential election which installed Abdullah Gul as President. Then the AKP launched an ambitious and controversial effort to revise the 1982 military-written constitution. After Ramadan, the House Foreign Affairs Committee voted out the Armenian genocide resolution, increasing already high anti-American sentiment in Turkey. Two very significant PKK attacks ratcheted up pressure on the GOT to reject USG calls for restraint in striking PKK forces in northern Iraq. In the aftermath of two ambushes, Erdogan brought a cross-border operation (CBO) authorization motion before parliament; he managed his party with determination. But the onus, especially after a third large attack on October 21, remains squarely on his shoulders. Economic Overview -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The Turkish economy has recovered strongly from the 2001 financial crisis, completing five years of GDP growth averaging over 7% -- the highest rate of any OECD country. In dollar terms, per capita GDP doubled to $5,500 over the past five years. For the first time since the early 1970's, inflation has been in single digits for three years. Turkey achieved this through its IMF-sponsored economic program and orthodox, pro-investor, pro-market policies. Foreign investment has grown tenfold, to over $20 billion last year and is approaching $25 billion this year. With two-way bilateral trade around $10 billion, roughly in balance between exports and imports, the U.S. is an important trading partner for Turkey. Half of Turkey's trade is with the EU, and Turkish trade with the Middle East, African and former Soviet Union countries is growing. Your Istanbul Meetings -------------- ¶6. (SBU) At your office's request we have arranged a meeting with Kemal Koprulu, founder of the ARI movement (a pro-EU/pro-U.S., youth-focused public policy think tank) on the morning of Monday, November 27. Although Koprulu does not hold political office, he is a keen observer of Turkish political life and his leadership of the ARI movement gives him the ability to exert influence in the secular center-right. Following this meeting, we have arranged a country briefing at the consulate during which DEA will review drug trafficking issues. WIENER