MUSHARRAF'S MIDDLE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ASIAN PEACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 000609 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2016 TAGS: PK PREL PTER XF SUBJECT: MUSHARRAF'S MIDDLE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ASIAN PEACE TOUR REF: A. ISLAMABAD 00528 ¶B. ISLAMABAD 00256 Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C//NF) Summary. In January, President Musharraf energetically renewed his two-year old effort to be a leader of moderate Muslim world with trips to seven Islamic capitals in three weeks; trips to two more capitals--Tehran and Ankara--are scheduled for this week. With a sense of urgency driven by a surge in factional fighting in Palestine, sectarian violence sweeping Iraq, and violence in Lebanon, Musharraf is pushing the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, the UAE, Malaysia, Indonesia, Iran, and Turkey to unite around a "new forceful initiative" to solve the Palestinian dispute. Musharraf now has in his hands universal agreement that "something" needs to be done and that a united moderate Muslim world approach is the way to go. End summary. WE'VE GOT TO DO SOMETHING -------------- ¶2. (C//NF) President Musharraf's drive to lead the moderate Muslim world kicked into high-gear in January when Musharraf started his Middle Eastern tour by telling reporters that the leaders of the Muslim world "cannot remain indifferent bystanders" to the surge in factional fighting in Palestine, instability in Lebanon, the spiraling sectarian violence in Iraq, and the direct impact of these trends on Pakistan and other Muslim nations. As he told CODEL Pelosi, he seeks to make an impact on the problem by getting his fellow leaders to unite around a solution that blunts the tide of sectarianism and agrees to pursue coordinated actions against terrorist organizations (Ref A). ¶3. (C//NF) From Riyadh to Kuala Lampur, Musharraf's message was the same: "we cannot miss this opportunity to bring peace and security to the region and the Islamic world at large; it is time to unite around a new solution." Musharraf has candidly admitted (reftel) that he cannot guarantee success, but he did gain agreement to begin discussions on a new initiative from the counterparts he consulted: King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, King Abdullah of Jordan, President Bashar al Asad of Syria, President Zayed of the U.A.E, Minister Badawi of Malaysia, and President Yudhyono of Indonesia. At the culmination of his consensus-building tour, Musharraf is expected to seek approval of a "statement of common principles" and convene an event hosted by Saudi King Abdullah to launch his new Middle East initiative. (Note: At this stage, it is unclear what form either the "Statement of Common Principles" or the "initiative" will take". End Note.) ¶4. (C//NF) This week, he is expected to seek consensus from Turkey and deliver a message to Iranian President Ahmedinejad--as he did with Syria's Asad (ref A)--that he is concerned by Iran's unhelpful contributions to instability in the region. Musharraf has told visiting U.S. officials that his outreach to Syria and Iran is necessary to blunt their potentially obstructionist response as he strives to build a core coalition of moderate Muslim states. Comment ISLAMABAD 00000609 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶5. (C//NF) After three weeks on the road, Musharraf has gained broad consensus for his idea that a united moderate Muslim world initiative is the need of the hour. Musharraf's palpable concern over the surge in Middle East violence, its perceived impact on the increasing sectarian violence in Pakistan, and the positive local press he has generated belie his determination. However, notably missing from coverage of Musharraf's trip--and from his own statements--are indications that his fellow leaders share his fervor and are close to agreeing on a concrete way ahead. End comment. CROCKER