BHUTTO'S SON (AND HUSBAND) NEW PPP LEADERS; PPP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 005395 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PK SUBJECT: BHUTTO'S SON (AND HUSBAND) NEW PPP LEADERS; PPP SUPPORTS ELECTIONS ON TIME REF: ISLAMABAD 5388 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d) ¶1. (C) The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) has chosen Benazir's son, Bilawal Bhutto, to lead the party, with support from her husband, Asif Ali Zardari as a co-chair. Amin Faheem will continue as Vice Chairman and be the PPP's candidate for Prime Minister. While Bilawal finishes his degree at Oxford, Asif Ali Zardari would lead the party, but he will not be a candidate. Over 90% of PPP members attending today's meeting supported going forward with elections as scheduled on January 8. In a press conference, an emotional Zardari called on Nawaz Sharif to participate in elections and asked for a Hariri-type UN investigation into Bhutto's death. ¶2. (C) In separate conversations with Ambassador, NSA Aziz and Pakistan Muslim League (PML) President Chaudhry Shujaat confirmed that the GOP would follow the PPP's wishes, but both noted logistical problems created by the post-assassination violence would make it increasingly difficult to have the election on January 8. Shujaat and Aziz also confirmed that the idea of an international investigation into Bhutto's death had been discussed and rejected by Musharraf. Shujaat indicated that, with the PPP under Bilawal, Zardari and Faheem, there was a good chance for PML and PPP to form a coalition government after the elections. ¶3. (C) In our view, we will need to press the government to allow some type of international review of the assassination investigation. End Summary. PPP Leadership -------------- ¶4. (C) Pakistan People's Party (PPP) Vice Chairman Amin Faheem and Senator Enver Baig called Post several times December 28 and 29 to update us on the progress of PPP party negotiations. The final decision was that Benazir's son Bilawal Bhutto would lead the party, while her husband, Asif Ali Zardari acted as co-chair. Amin Faheem would continue as Vice Chairman and be the party's choice for Prime Minister. While Bilawal finishes his degree at Oxford, Zardari will lead the party. Baig told Ambassador that Zardari would not stand for election, and over 90% of PPP leaders at today's meeting supported going forward with elections on January 8. After the press conference, Ambassador congratulated Faheem on the PPP's decision; he confirmed he would be the party's choice for Prime Minister. ¶5. (C) Baig told Polcouns that, in her will, Benazir had named her husband Asif Ali Zardari to take over leadership of the party, but Zardari had declined urging instead that Benazir's son Bilawal (aged 19, currently enrolled at Oxford) be given the title of party chief. The compromise was a joint chairmanship for now. ¶6. (C) Pakistan Muslim League (PML) President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain told Ambassador that neither Zardari nor Bilawal had a college degree; therefore, neither was eligible to be a candidate for Parliament or Prime Minister. Shujaat indicated that Zardari would not stand for election because he knows the Army would not support someone with Zardari's questionable reputation. Elections Postponement -------------- ¶7. (C) In a December 29 phone conversation, Tariq Aziz confirmed to the Ambassador that the government would accept whatever decision PPP made about when the elections could take place. Aziz also confirmed press reports that several Election Commission Offices in Sindh had been burned down, printing presses are closed preventing printing of election ballots, and fuel shortages are complicating delivery of ballots which have been printed. It would, therefore, be difficult to hold elections on January 8. ¶8. (C) In a December 29 meeting with Ambassador, Shujaat ISLAMABAD 00005395 002 OF 003 said that he and PML Punjab leader Pervaiz Elahi had met yesterday with President Musharraf to discuss the election situation. Shujaat confirmed that the government will wait for PPP's decision on how to proceed but also confirmed the logistical and security problems the Election Commission now faces. Shujaat and Elahi polled over 40 of their key party leaders; the majority in Punjab and Balochistan were prepared to go forward with elections on January 8, but those in Sindh (the site of the worst post-assassination violence) and Northwest Frontier Province supported a delay. Shujaat said that the PPP's 40 day mourning period would end on February 5, and the Muslim holy month of Muharram would end on February 10; therefore, elections could be held on February 14, 16 or 18. Electoral Fallout -------------- ¶9. (C) Shujaat said that Bhutto's assassination would clearly give the PPP a boost at the polls, particularly in urban Sindh and Punjab. But he noted that voter registration was lower in urban than rural areas. He predicted that Nawaz Sharif would again reverse himself and participate in elections if the PPP participated. He dismissed the idea that Fazlur Rehman's Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party would be weaker because of its record of poor governance in the Northwest Frontier Province. Shujaat reluctantly agreed that Bhutto's assassination and a election postponement that gives Nawaz more time to campaign would undercut the PML's vote, but he remained confident the PML would get the majority necessary to form a coalition government. ¶10. (C) Shujaat said that PML relations with both Zardari and Faheem were excellent and insisted that the chances for a PPP-PML coalition government were better than they had been before Bhutto's death. Speaking personally, Shujaat said he faced his own family's opposition to dealing with Bhutto because of their family history (Reftel). Shujaat described Zardari as a clever man, but one who was not in good health. When he was Interior Minister under Nawaz Sharif, Shujaat personally had assisted Zardari in avoiding extradition to the UK on trumped-up narcotics charges. Shujaat described Faheem as being honest but weak. Shujaat said that under Bhutto, no one else in the PPP had the opportunity for much independent action, so it was perhaps premature to underestimate Faheem's leadership capabilities. But, we would have to ask the PPP if they were willing to join a coalition with the PML. Independent Investigation -------------- ¶11. (C) Ambassador again raised with Aziz the need for an independent/international investigation of Bhutto's death. Aziz said he had spoken to Zardari about his decision forbidding an autopsy. Aziz explained that autopsies were controversial, particularly for females, but Aziz said he had argued in vain with the President for an international inquiry. ¶12. (C) Shujaat confirmed that the issue had been discussed with Musharraf and that Aziz had argued for an international investigation but had been voted down. As an alternative, Shujaat had suggested that an international team of experts be invited to receive a briefing on the GOP's findings. In contrast to Aziz, however, Shujaat said that autopsies were perfectly normal in Pakistan in response to magistrate's order, so if the Bhutto family allowed her body to be exhumed, the government could conduct another post-mortem based on an autopsy. ¶13. (C) Comment: None of PPP's current lineup (Zardari, Bilawal and Faheem) are likely to give the PPP strong leadership in the short-term, but the decision to keep party control in the family is not surprising. We see two troublesome issues. First, the decision of the PPP to go forward with elections on January 8, when it may be logistically difficult. We expect this will be the subject of negotiations in the next few days. The second is an international investigation, particularly now that the party has formally called for UN intervention. The GOP will not ISLAMABAD 00005395 003 OF 003 welcome such an investigation. The best news is the possibility for a strong, stable PML-PPP coalition government after the elections. PATTERSON