BHUTTO'S ASSASSINATION: THE DAY AFTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 005383

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PK
SUBJECT: BHUTTO'S ASSASSINATION: THE DAY AFTER

REF: ISLAMABAD

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (C) Summary. Benazir Bhutto's family and supporters are
consumed with funeral and mourning ceremonies, but the
struggle for party leadership between Benazir's husband, Asif
Ali Zardari, and PPP Vice Chairman Amin Faheem has begun.
The USG is perceived as being the power behind Bhutto's
return to Pakistan, and Faheem's supporters already are
touting the Secretary's December 27 call as evidence of USG
support for his leadership in the party. We believe that
intervention with Nawaz Sharif to argue against a boycott
would be well-received by both the government and the PPP.
We anticipate that the current violence will subside in most
of Pakistan after the three-day mourning period ends. End
Summary.


2. (U) Pakistan this morning is reeling with shock and
gloom over the December 27 assassination of Pakistan People's
Party leader Benazir Bhutto. The funeral began at 1430 local
time in Larkana; the GOP sent a C-130 and helicopters to
transfer Bhutto's body from Rawalpindi to Larkana. Benazir's
husband, Asif Ali Zardari and Benazir's three children
arrived last night. Bhutto has been interred next to her
father, Zulfikar, and the scene at the family home in Larkana
is chaotic as grief-stricken supporters are swarming the
house, grounds and family mausoleum.


3. (C) Following sporadic violence across Pakistan last
night, attacks on vehicles, banks and government offices
continued today, particularly in Bhutto's home province of
Sindh and in Balochistan. The GOP declared a three-day
mourning period so government offices, shops, banks and the
stock exchange are closed. The media is reporting al Qaeda
has claimed credit, but much of PPP supporters' anger and
frustration is being directed at government-related targets
because they blame the GOP for not providing Bhutto with
adequate security. The fact that Bhutto, a Sindhi, was
killed in the Punjab will be played out in inter-provincial
rivalries for years to come.


4. (C) We expect violence to continue during the three-day
mourning period in major cities, and probably for several
more days in Karachi and other parts of Sindh. Several
commentators noted that the attack on Bhutto took place in
Liaquat Bagh, a field where Pakistan's first Prime Minister
was assassinated in 1951 and a government paramilitary force
attacked a political rally in 1973; it is near where
Benazir's father was hung by President Zia in 1979. Although
today's press coverage provided fairly balanced obituaries
describing Bhutto's strengths and weaknesses, we expect she
will increasingly be idolized in the coming days. It is
important to remember that Benazir, her father and her two
brothers were all murdered; to Pakistanis, the family is akin
to the Kennedys, and the people need to vent their national
grief. Here, grief often translates into violent acts, but
it remains to be seen whether the current violence will carry
over into the new year and the scheduled elections.

PPP Leadership Vacuum
--------------


5. (C) Bhutto's death 12 days before the general election
leaves the party in a serious quandry, and there are already
signs of a power struggle. Bhutto's demanding and autocratic
style left little room for competitors to emerge, so most PPP
leadership skills are as yet untested. The main contenders
for party leadership are Benazir's husband, Zardari, and PPP
Vice Chairman Amin Faheem. Another possibility is Aitzaz
Ahsan, the lawyer who defended the former Chief Justice and
is now President of the Supreme Court Bar Association.


6. (C) PPP is a family-based feudal party that has been
living on the legacy of former Prime Minister Zulfakir Bhutto
and now his daughter Benazir. Therefore, the natural choice
for Benazir's successor would be a direct family member.
However, Benazir's sister Sanam has shunned politics, and
Benazir's children are too young (aged 18, 17 and 14).
Zardari, although unpopular with party rank and file, could
be considered as a placeholder at least until one of the
children takes over. Zardari comes with a great deal of

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baggage, so much so that he did not return to Pakistan with
Benazir when she returned from exile in October. He has
spent 11 years in and out of prison, charged but never
convicted of crimes ranging from blackmail and extortion to
murder. He is known as "Mr. Ten-Percent" because of his
alleged corruption during Benazir's terms as Prime Minister.
Zardari reportedly is in poor health with diabetes, heart
trouble and spinal injuries. But he was particularly vocal
in accusing the GOP of complicity after the October 18
bombing of Bhutto's welcome home rally in Karchi; he is
likely to repeat his attacks on the GOP in the next few days.


7. (C) Faheem was the PPP in-country leader during Bhutto's
eight years of self-imposed exile; he is a senior
parliamentarian, former Minister of Communications
(1993-2002) and Housing (1993-1996) and he competed for Prime
Minister with the PML's Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain in 2004.
Faheem is well-respected in PPP party circles and is known as
a completely loyal Bhutto supporter. He is moderate and
secular. He leads a spiritual group which promotes the
peaceful Sufi values of Islam (while enjoying an occasional
bloody mary). Importantly for a Sindh-based party, he is
from Hala in Sindh. But Faheem is known as a weak leader
with little of the charisma needed to lead an emotionally
devastated party as a Prime Minister.


8. (C) Ahsan is undoubtedly PPP's most brilliant mind and
strategist. He was the only Pakistani politician to
capitalize on the March suspension of the former Chief
Justice by organizing nation-wide rallies, and he mounted a
stirring defense of the former Chief Justice in court. But
Bhutto, then seeking a deal with Musharraf, did not endorse
Ahsan's campaign and she barely approved his candidacy for
re-election. Ahsan has been hedging his bets, including by
meeting with Nawaz Sharif in London earlier this year. Ahsan
also was considered the strategist who convinced the former
Chief Justice to goad Musharraf into declaring a state of
emergency. Ahsan has since cast his lot with the lawyers; he
withdrew his candidacy for re-election on December 15. Our
PPP contacts do not believe the party will adopt the
controversial Ahsan as a leader because he had all but split
with Bhutto prior to her death. With Bhutto gone, however,
Ahsan may well form a splinter party in the future.

Elections on Schedule?
--------------


9. (C) Faheem announced December 27 that the PPP would
adopt a 40 day period of mourning; all parties have suspended
campaigning for the three-day mourning period announced the
government. All the PPP leaders are engaged in
funeral/mourning so they have made no public statements on
whether they will continue with elections. However, analysts
believe that the "grief factor" will enhance the PPP's
chances in the upcoming elections. Some observers have
proposed a delay, but a delay is likely to expose the PPP
leadership battle and over time create doubts about the
party's ability to deliver all-important electoral perks.


10. (C) Shahbaz Sharif told CG Lahore (septel) that,
indeed, the PML-N intends now to boycott the election. The
PML is still playing a dangerous game of hoping to undermine
the credibility of the elections and promote street protests
that require the Army to step in and restore order. Despite
public proclamations against the military's role in politics,
Nawaz knows that this is the only way to deliver on his goal
of ousting Musharraf.


11. (C) If Nawaz's PML-N party does boycott the elections,
the most likely result will be to clear the field for
Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, the PML candidate, to become the next
Prime Minister. Before Bhutto's assassination, PML and PML-N
share a center-right power base in the critical Punjab, and
they were headed towards splitting the vote to Bhutto's
benefit. Some PLM-N members may contest despite the boycott.


12. (C) Musharraf reportedly will call an All Parties
Conference in the coming days to consult with political
parties on the way forward for elections. At a minimum,
there will be no more big rallies in the few remaining
campaign days, and the government will have to use additional
Army/police forces to maintain security on election day. The

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All Parties Conference could conclude that it is better to
delay elections.


13. (C) Comment: The President's message of condolence and
condemnation has been well received, but contacts caution
that we wait until the three-day mourning period ends before
engaging the PPP on political decisions. The USG is perceived
as being the power behind Bhutto's return to Pakistan, and
Faheem's supporters in the PPP already are touting the
Secretary's December 27 call as evidence of USG support for

SIPDIS
his leadership in the party. However, we believe that
intervention with the PML-N to argue against a boycott would
be well-received by the government and the PPP.



PATTERSON