NSA AZIZ PROPOSES STEPS TO IMPROVE ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 005237 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2017 TAGS: PGOV PK PREL SUBJECT: NSA AZIZ PROPOSES STEPS TO IMPROVE ELECTIONS Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Ambassador and DCM called on National Security Advisor (NSA) Tariq Aziz December 11 to discuss the on-going political situation and upcoming elections. NSA Aziz said the Saudi Ambassador to Pakistan recently met with Nawaz Sharif, implying the Saudis had tried to encourage a rapprochement between Musharraf and Nawaz. Aziz shared his views on the political prospects of the major parties. Ambassador and DCM raised the issue of filling vacant electoral commission (ECP) positions and replacing the Secretary of the ECP, to which Aziz responded positively. SIPDIS Aziz also said the government was considering meeting Benazir Bhutto's demand of relieving nazims (akin to mayors) until elections are held. End summary. ¶2. (C) NSA Aziz opened by saying the Saudi Ambassador to Pakistan had recently been "very active," implying he had tried in his much publicized meeting with Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif to encourage a rapprochement with Musharraf. Aziz ruled out this possibility, saying Sharif could not get over his personal animosity and need for retribution towards Musharraf. Aziz opined that none of the major political parties could win a simple majority in next month's election and smaller parties will be needed to form a government, particularly Fazlur Rehman's Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F). Aziz went on to say Sharif and the Chaudhry's understood this, but Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader Benazir Bhutto still thinks she can win a simple majority of seats. Aziz said Bhutto would level charges of corruption and rigging when her party fails to win such a majority. ¶3. (C) Ambassador asked Aziz about the status of filling still-vacant ECP positions. Aziz responded the government had accepted two of the names Bhutto had put forward for these positions and was in the process of formalizing an agreement. When asked by the DCM what the government planned to do about the Secretary of the ECP, Aziz was non-committal. After DCM reiterated widespread concerns held by the international and NGO community on the Secretary's character, competence, and partiality, Aziz agreed it would probably make sense to replace him. Aziz said the perception of how the ECP runs the election is more important than the fact that the Chief Commissioner of the ECP would be distraught over a change in personnel so close to the election. Aziz firmly stated he would propose dismissing the Secretary to President Musharraf. ¶4. (C) Aziz then raised Bhutto's demand that nazims (local mayors) be removed from office for the remaining month before the election. Aziz surprised us by stating he thought Bhutto's proposal made sense and was possible. Aziz stressed here again that perception was everything and if taking such action would enhance the credibility of elections, it would be worth doing. Aziz indicated Musharraf could issue an ordinance under the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) suspending nazims through the election. Aziz strongly suggested the Ambassador raise such a recommendation to President Musharraf in their next meeting. ¶5. (C) Comment: The attempted Saudi intervention remains curious and inconclusive. Like many of Aziz's previous recommendations the past few months, the steps to enhance the transparency of the electoral process are positive and welcome. Sadly, even if the government were to take such actions, we feel these steps are not likely to signal a change in domestic and international opinion regarding the government's handling of the election. Despite this, we will encourage all elements of the government to make these proposed changes. End comment. PATTERSON