IMRAN KHAN STICKS TO HIS PRINCIPLES

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 005100 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2017 TAGS: PGOV PK PREL SUBJECT: IMRAN KHAN STICKS TO HIS PRINCIPLES Classified By: Polcouns Candace Putnam, for reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: With little to lose personally, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan is working to convince Pakistan's opposition parties to boycott the January general elections. Khan predicted any coalition government formed after the election would be short-lived and suggested that Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif should boycott now to bolster his future chances. Khan predicted elections in the Northwest Frontier Province and the tribal areas would be violent. End Summary. ¶2. (C) PolCouns and PolOff November 27 met PTI leader Khan at his Islamabad farm. Sporting a pressed white shalwar kameez and a vintage Rolex watch, Khan was characteristically charismatic. He stated flatly that he was not going to participate in the upcoming elections out of "solidarity" with the lawyers movement. ¶3. (C) Khan said he would try to convince Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif to join his electoral boycott and hoped that Sharif's decision would also convince Pakistan People's Party leader Benazir Bhutto to follow suit. Khan noted that the majority of Sharif's political base comes from his anti-Musharraf positions and--unlike Bhutto--his unwillingness to cut deals with Musharraf. Therefore, Sharif's electoral prospects would be "over" if he participated in the upcoming race because it would show complicity with Musharraf. Khan also predicted that the next coalition government would be short-lived, so it made sense for Sharif to sit this round out and reap the rewards of sticking to his principles in the next election. ¶4. (C) Khan was pessimistic about his country's near-term political prospects. Khan predicted a high level of electoral violence in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and in his own district in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). Khan said growing resentment towards Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) leader Fazlur Rehman would cost the religious bloc votes and predicted that nationalist parties, particularly the Pashtun Awami Nationalist Party, would pick up JUI-F seats. Assuming Sharif and Bhutto participate in the election, Khan said personal interests might compel Sharif, Bhutto, or Musharraf to form a coalition, but personal animosity among the three would undermine any potential partnership within a year. ¶5. (C) Comment: Khan, whose PTI party is effectively a one-man show, has little to lose personally in supporting a boycott. His credibility rests with his self-created role as the politician who sticks to his principles, and he is popular with the Pakistani intelligentsia and elements of the disaspora. But Khan has never been able to turn his starring role as the captain of Pakistan's only team to win the international cricket championship into an effective political party. End comment. PATTERSON