PAKISTAN UPDATE: WEEK OF NOVEMBER 26

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 005099

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN UPDATE: WEEK OF NOVEMBER 26

Ref: None
_____________________________________________ ____________________

Classified By: Polcouns Candace Putnam, for reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: Sporadic protests by lawyers, journalists
and students continued around the country the week of
November 26, and opposition political party leaders continued
to debate whether to boycott the January 8 elections. In the
wake of Pervez Musharraf's retirement as Chief of Army Staff,
his second-term inauguration as President, and his
announcement that the State of Emergency (SOE) and
Provisional Constitutional Order would end on December 16,
most politicians are busy filing their candidate nomination
papers. The Ministry of Interior announced that only 37
people detained under the SOE remained in detention. The
United Arab Emirates lifted the block on transmission of Geo
TV from Dubai, but Geo is not yet back on cable TV in
Pakistan. With Codel Bennett, Ambassador raised the ongoing
visa problems of IRI and The Asia Foundation with President
Musharraf and Foreign Minister Haq.. End summary.

Protests Continue
--------------


2. (U) On November 29, police baton-charged rock-throwing
lawyers protesting in Lahore; the GOP denied tear gassing the
group and reported that lawyers who had been detained in the
protest had been released. On November 28, lawyers and
journalists held a small, joint demonstration at the Peshawar
High Court to protest the sacking of the judiciary and media
restrictions. Although the protest was dispersed peacefully,
the lawyers vowed to continue their demonstrations until the
state of emergency is lifted. In addition, many of the
student wings of the Peshawar political parties, including
the Pakhtun Students Federation, the Peoples Student
Federation, the Muslim League Students Federation, and Islami
Jamiat Talaba (JTI),are planning to organize small protests
over the coming days.


3. (U) The lawyers of Rawalpindi, Attock, and Taxila observed
November 29 as a Black Day to protest Musharraf's
inauguration under the 1973 Constitution. The same day, the
Lahore Bar Association held a rally as it also observed a
Black Day against Musharraf's inauguration. In Karachi and
Balochistan, the lawyers continue to hold daily one-hour
strikes.

To Boycott or Not to Boycott
--------------


4. (U) The All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) held
meetings in Lahore that continued through November 30 to
consider whether to boycott the January elections. To date,
the APDM does not have a firm boycott policy despite multiple
press announcements by its members. At a press conference in
Peshawar on November 30, Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) announced it
would boycott both the provincial and national elections in
the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). The Pakistan Tehreek
Insaaf (PTI),led by Imran Khan also announced an intention
to boycott the elections. The Awami National Party (ANP) and
Jaamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F),however, said they would not
boycott. Nawaz Sharif, leader of the Pakistan Muslim
League-N party, indicated publicly that his party would
boycott but it is not clear if it actually will not
participate in elections.


5. Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP)
indicated in press statements that her party would take part
in the upcoming elections but under protest and with the
right to boycott as the election approaches.


6. Meanwhile, the Election Commission reported that it has
received 13,490 nomination papers for a total of 265 National
Assembly and 566 provincial assembly seats.

Arrests/Detentions
--------------


7. (U) The Ministry of Interior (MOI) announced on November
27 that during the first few weeks of the state of emergency,
approximately 5,750 individuals were arrested but only 37
currently remained behind bars. Of those still imprisoned,
five are detained under the Maintenance of Public Order (MPO)

Ordinance and the remaining prisoners are charged with acts
of violence. The five currently detained under the MPO
include the current Supreme Court Bar Association President
Aitzaz Ahsan, Justice (ret.) Tariq Mehmood, and three other
lawyers. According to media reports, the members of the
deposed Supreme Court, who have been under house arrest in
the Islamabad judges' enclave since November 3, were ordered
to be forcibly removed from their government homes.

Media
--------------


8. (U) On November 29, the media authorities in Dubai
announced that they will once again allow Geo TV to resume
its broadcast from Dubai. However, the GOP has not yet
restored Geo's access to cable TV inside Pakistan. In
support of the channel, several small-scale demonstrations
took place around Pakistan, including marches from the Lahore
Press Club to the Geo office by lawyers and civil society
organizations on November 27 and a similar march conducted by
approximately 100 university students on November 28.

IRI/TAF
--------------


9. (U) With visiting Codel Bennett, Ambassador raised with
President Musharraf and FM Haq our concern that the
International Republican Institute (IRI) continues to receive
GOP letters advising them to leave the country. Ambassador
also raised our concern that the local director of The Asia
Foundation (TAF) has had his visa canceled. Both IRI and TAF
are implementing USAID- and DRL-funded election and democracy
projects in Pakistan. Both the President and the Minister
promised to try and resolve these problems.


10. (C) Comment: In the wake of Pervez Musharraf's
retirement as Chief of Army Staff, his second-term
inauguration as President, and his announcement that the
State of Emergency and Provisional Constitutional Order would
end on December 16, most politicians are busy filing their
candidate nomination papers. Although protests continue, the
media is turning its attention to the cycle of vote swapping
and political coalition building that is the norm for
election season in Pakistan. We believe that most detainees
have indeed been released but expect the MOI to vigorously
enforce the Election Commission's code of conduct (septel)
that limits large political rallies for security reasons.


PATTERSON