PAKISTAN: PLANNING FOR JANUARY 8 ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 005054 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID PHUM PK SUBJECT: PAKISTAN: PLANNING FOR JANUARY 8 ELECTIONS REF: A. ISLAMABAD 4998 ¶B. ISLAMABAD 4995 ¶C. ISLAMABAD 4992 ¶D. ISLAMABAD 4947 ¶E. ISLAMABAD 4864 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Embassy is emailing to SCA, USAID, and DRL the first cut of the Mission Pakistan election monitoring plan. We will focus on constituencies which historically have been closely contested and/or stolen. We are planning, particularly if the Europeans do not participate in election-monitoring, a Mission-wide monitoring program, to ensure elections are &free, fair and transparent.8 Post requests additional people and resources. Even with more personnel, our election effort will adversely affect reporting and visitor support. We are also consulting with IRI about an enhanced observation mission. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) With the arrival of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, post believes that USG involvement in election monitoring will be more critical than ever. While a boycott is still possible, we believe most parties are likely to participate in the elections. Historically, losers in Pakistan have claimed (often justifiably) that elections have been stolen. We believe the return of both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, combined with Musharraf's new civilian role as President, has leveled the playing field and increase the importance of voting in what may be closely contested elections. ¶3. (SBU) Embassy has emailed to SCA, DRL, and USAID a first draft of the Mission,s election monitoring plan. We ask that it be widely shared among agencies. We are also working with the IRI election mission, domestic monitoring groups, and other diplomatic missions to include their small, bilateral delegations in our effort. USG involvement will be particularly important if (as per reftels B, C and E) the EU refuses to send observers. A major election effort will, however, degrade the Embassy,s ability to report and to support visitors. (Embassy is already expecting a CODEL to participate in the monitoring effort.) In addition, we expect considerable international press which will require our attention. Post will need funding from SCA to provide for rental cars, per diem, the cost of establishing a control center, and other expenses. We estimate we will need $90,000 to cover TDY, overtime, travel and other expenses. Details of expected costs will be provided as election day approaches. ¶4. (SBU) Embassy has consulted with IRI about increasing the numbers of its observers. To recap, IRI was already planning to have twelve long-term observers in country by this week and 43 short-term observers, to arrive 4-5 days before the election. This initial effort is funded by DRL. USAID has now made available additional funding ($1.4 million) to fund an increase in IRI observers. Unlike observers from diplomatic missions, including ourselves, IRI has real expertise and can concentrate on the counting process and working with the parties to identify conflictive constituencies. We are asking IRI to cost out a proposal to increase the number of long-term advisors from twelve to twenty-two and the short-term advisors by forty-three to sixty-three. All would be personnel who have direct, international election experience. ¶5. (U) We are also contributing to the funding of domestic observers from the Asia Foundation. The Asia Foundation is affiliated with the local Free and Fair elections network, a Pakistani NGO, which will provide 20,000 election observers for approximately 100 districts. UNDP will play a coordinating role among NGOs and has prepared a manual for political party workers with information on the election procedures, a description of the process, and the appeals process. ¶6. (SBU) Post needs personnel for the election monitoring who are familiar with Pakistan. Some individuals with previous experience are Tom West (SCA/PAB),Saba Ghori (DRL),Rozina Damanwala (DRL),Barbara Smith (USAID),Michael Hrychchyshyn (USAID),Robin McClellan (S/CT-New Delhi),Tim Wilder (SCA/Afghanistan) and Sameer Sheth (SCA/PAB). USAID has only one TDY election officer in Pakistan. We believe one person ISLAMABAD 00005054 002 OF 002 is not adequate to support the process and request that USAID provide an additional person to support this effort. ¶7. (U) Post will continue to plan along these lines unless instructed otherwise. PATTERSON