URGING THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION TO STAY ENGAGED ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004992

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PK PREL
SUBJECT: URGING THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION TO STAY ENGAGED ON
PAKISTAN

REF: ISLAMABAD 4864

ISLAMABAD 00004992 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary and action request: Led by the European
Commission, a growing number of European countries here are
questioning their participation in election observer
missions. Ambassador briefed her European counterparts
November 22 (septel) to urge that they not take pre-emptive
decisions that will limit the international community's
ability to continue encouraging the government to return to
constitutional normalcy. Post believes that recent events
have made it more, not less, important to have as many
independent observers in the field as possible. We support
reprogramming funds to enhance the number of observers in the
U.S. mission being organized by the International Republican
Institute (IRI) and believe EU capitals should consider doing
the same. We are also concerned about the domino effect of
an EC cancellation will have on other nations' observer
missions. Post requests that the Department instruct the
U.S. Mission to the EU to urge that the EC stay engaged in
promoting credible elections in Pakistan. End summary.


2. (C) At a November 20 meeting of the election "like minded"
group of counterparts from mainly EU and Commonwealth
countries (reftel),European Commission DCM Balthasar Benz
indicated that the EC's stance on elections has hardened. He
said that the Commissioner has suspended plans to send an EC
election observer mission because of concern that the January
8 elections were to be held under a state of emergency. Benz
added that the observer mission would likely be canceled if
the state of emergency were not lifted sufficiently early in
the campaign to allow for a free and fair election day. Benz
proposed November 26 as a possible deadline because it is the
last day Pakistan's Election Commission will accept
candidates' nominations. (Note: The EC planned to send 15
long-term and approximately 150 short-term observers to
monitor Pakistan's election. This is the largest independent
observer mission planned.)


3. (C) At this news, Canada, Switzerland and Norway
representatives responded that their small bilateral observer
missions may be canceled because they were to be coordinated
under the EC's umbrella. Privately, other countries,
including Japan, are wondering in light of the EC decision if
they should proceed with organizing their own bilateral
observation missions. The Commonwealth's decision to suspend
Pakistan also puts its observer mission in doubt.


4. (C) The USG has repeatedly told the government that the
elections will not be credible if they are held under a state
of emergency and have demanded that political detainees be
released and media curbs lifted so that campaigning can
proceed. The government has taken some steps in the right
direction, including lifting the block on transmission of
most television stations and releasing a significant number
of detainees. The Supreme Court ruled November 22 to confirm
Musharraf's re-election; therefore, he could resign as Chief
of Army Staff and re-take the presidential oath of office as
a civilian as early as this weekend. The Pakistan People's
Party has begun to file candidate papers, making it less
likely that it or other parties will boycott the elections.


5. (C) Thus, events may be moving slowly in the right
direction, and it is presumptuous and short-sighted to
pre-emptively withdraw international support for Pakistan's
elections. Post believes that it is more, not less,
important to have the maximum number of international
observers on the ground on election day, and we are working
to increase the number of U.S. observers in the DRL-funded
IRI mission. We believe that EU capitals should support this
and all efforts to make Pakistan's elections as credible as
possible.


6. (C) Action request: Ambassador briefed her EU

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counterparts November 22 to urge that they remain engaged in
democracy promotion by continuing to support election
monitoring. Post requests the Department to instruct the
U.S. Mission to the EU to send the same message. The EC
should not suspend or cancel its election observation mission
and should continue to press the government to lift the state
of emergency so that credible elections can be held in
January.

PATTERSON