MGPK01: SITREP 24, AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004925 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2017 TAGS: PGOV PK AEMR AMGT CASC KFLO PINR PREL SUBJECT: MGPK01: SITREP 24, AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD: ANTI-MUSHARRAF PETITIONS DISMISSED; GEO TV STILL SHUT DOWN; OPPOSITION CONSIDERING NEXT MOVES REF: ISLAMABAD 4895 Classified By: DCM Peter W. Bodde, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The reconstituted Supreme Court dismissed most of the petitions against Musharraf's re-election when opposition attorneys refused to recognize the panel's authority. One petition remains for a November 22 hearing. Depending on the outcome of the case, Musharraf may be free to take the presidential oath of office as early as this Thursday. Pakistani press gave wide coverage to the Deputy Secretary's November 16-18 visit. Geo and ARY TV stations SIPDIS remain off the air. Opposition representatives will meet in Islamabad late November 19 to decide whether to contest elections, even if under a state of emergency. There were scattered demonstrations in Pakistan's largest cities November 18-19, with limited arrests. Mission offices continue to operate normally. End summary. ¶2. (C) On November 19, a 10-justice Supreme Court panel threw out five of six petitions against Musharraf's re-election for "lack of prosecution." Opposition lawyers, including for Pakistan People's Party (PPP) Makhdoom Amin Faheem and the lawyers' Wajihuddin Ahmad, refused to recognize the reconstituted bench. Some lawyers argued in court that the pre-emergency 11-justice panel should be returned. Other lawyers did not even show up to court. The Court deferred to November 22 one final petitioner. That petition is widely viewed as frivolous and was actually dismissed by the pre-emergency Court. Assuming a quick dismissal of this final petition, President Musharraf may be able to take the presidential oath as early as November 22. ¶3. (C) The reconstituted Supreme Court also heard arguments November 19 against the proclamation of emergency and provisional constitution order. We expect this case to continue for a couple days more. ¶4. (U) Urdu- and English-language press gave wide coverage of the Deputy Secretary's recent visit and departing statement. Most articles highlighted D's call that elections not be held under a state of emergency. ¶5. (U) Local media also reported that President Musharraf will travel to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, November 20-21. ¶6. (U) "Solidarity demonstrations" were planned for November 19 in front of Geo TV offices in Islamabad and Karachi to protest the complete cut in operations of GEO TV and ARY TV stations. Other local and international broadcasters are on the air though. ¶7. (C) Attorney General Malik Qayyum warned November 18 that Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader Benazir Bhutto could still face corruption charges. Qayyum predicted that Musharraf's October 5 National Reconciliation Ordinance might be overturned by the Supreme Court. (Note: Qayyum told the Ambassador November 7 that the Ordinance was poorly drafted and likely unconstitutional.) The Court has yet to set a date to review the Ordinance. ¶8. (C) Parties making up the opposition All Pakistan Democratic Movement (APDM) are meeting in Islamabad late November 19 to decide whether they will participate in parliamentary elections, even if under a state of emergency. They will also discuss whether to take any joint action with the PPP. It appears that the religious parties, particularly Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F),will contest elections. The nationalist parties, such as the Awami National Party (ANP), have reportedly made no final decisions but are leaning toward participating. And Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is undecided. All these parties, including the PPP, boycotted an Election Commission meeting called today to review election rules. ¶9. (C) Supreme Court Bar Association president and lawyers' movement leader Aitzaz Ahsan remains at Adiala Prison, Rawalpindi. After Embassy discussed this case with National ISLAMABAD 00004925 002 OF 002 Security Advisor Tariq Aziz and Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao, Ahsan's wife (Bushra Aitzaz) and daughter (Saman Ahsan) were able to visit him November 17 and planned to see him again November 19 and 20. Post is in direct contact with both. They report that Ahsan appears to be physically fine and has received his medicines. Ahsan is completely cut off from any other communications, however, beyond these small, monitored encounters. ¶10. (U) Karachi: The Karachi Union of Journalists will demonstrate November 19, although the timing remains unannounced to avoid pre-emptive mass arrests. Political parties conducted small protests in various parts of Sindh. PPP Women's Wing marched in Larkhana November 18, resulting in a handful of arrests. Journalists protested November 18 outside of press clubs in numerous Balochistan cities/towns. No arrests were reported. Sindh's and Balochistan's caretaker chief ministers were sworn in November 19. ¶11. (U) Lahore: An 18-member caretaker provincial cabinet, including caretaker chief minister Sheikh Ejaz Nisar, was sworn in November 19 in Lahore. CG Lahore reports that Nisar is close to his immediate predecessor, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi. PPP contacts do not believe Nisar will be a neutral caretaker through the elections process. ¶12. (U) Peshawar: Small protests by lawyers and journalists are expected November 19 in Peshawar and in several other Frontier Province (NWFP) districts (Mardan, Dir and Kohat). November 18 demonstrations were limited, with only a couple by Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) and a couple in Swabi by lawyers and journalists. PATTERSON