"LIKE MINDED" GROUP: REACTIONS TO ELECTIONS UNDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004864 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2017 TAGS: PGOV PK PREL PINR AEMR KFLO CASC SUBJECT: "LIKE MINDED" GROUP: REACTIONS TO ELECTIONS UNDER A STATE OF EMERGENCY REF: ISLAMABAD 4824 Classified By: DCM Peter W. Bodde, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary: International donors for Pakistan's pro-democracy programs are growing increasingly skeptical that the government can reverse actions related to the state of emergency in time to stave off aid cuts or decisions to cancel election observation missions. Post continues to caution that such action is premature. End summary. ¶2. (C/NF) PolOff attended November 13 the weekly meeting of the "like minded" group on democracy/election issues, which includes diplomatic representatives from the EU and/or Commonwealth countries, plus the U.S. and (sometimes) Japan. The European Commission ¶3. (C/NF) The European Commission's DCM Balthasar Benz announced that the European Commissioner would decide in Brussels later November 13 whether to send an EC observer mission for Pakistan's parliamentary elections. President Musharraf announced November 11 that these elections should occur before January 9, 2008. The Commissioner's position, reported Benz, would likely be: "No observers if elections are under a state of emergency." EC/Islamabad advised the Commissioner to make the decision public. Benz confirmed that if, between now and elections, the emergency is lifted, "we are ready to go." UK/Commonwealth ¶4. (C/NF) The UK High Commission's PolCouns Thomas Drew briefed the recently released Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) statement that gave Pakistan ten days to reverse anti-democratic actions. He said it was a middle ground between doing nothing and suspending Pakistan's membership in the organization. For now, the suspension threat is just a "useful lever," Drew added. The organization has this next week to determine whether to use it or not, before heads of government meet in Kigali. Separately, Drew told Polcouns that Prime Minister Aziz had lobbied hard with Commonwealth SecGen McKinnon to convince him not to go forward with a suspension. According to Drew, at the CMAG meeting, the Canadians and Australians had pushed the hardest for a suspension, with the UK acting as a moderating force. "A Text With No Status" ¶5. (C/NF) International NGO representatives and officials from some of the donor countries reportedly attended a UN Development Programme (UNDP)-called, elections technical working group meeting on November 12. Confounded by the difficulties of assisting with and observing elections under a state of emergency, this technical-level group drafted "a text with no status," intended for donors to consider. ¶6. (C/NF) The text proposes that donors would separately argue the same points to the GOP: (1) re-instate media freedoms, (2) ensure judicial independence, (3) release lawyers, human rights activists and political party workers, and (4) treat political parties/leaders equally, allowing them to conduct campaign programs. The text does not set any deadline for the GOP to complete these four points. However, Pakistan's Election Commission (ECP) estimates that it needs at least 45 days, logistically, to put on these elections. Counting back from Musharraf's announced deadline for elections of January 9, 2008, these four points would need to be fulfilled by November 20, so argued Netherlands' PolOff Mirjam Krijnen. ¶7. (C/NF) If donors were to cut-off the aid provided for ISLAMABAD 00004864 002 OF 002 elections through the UNDP, it would mainly affect training of poll workers. Much of the hardware (e.g., ballot boxes), reported Krijnen, has already been delivered. She also mentioned that, because of government arrests and intimidation, UNDP programs with the political parties and journalists have ground to a halt. Japan ¶8. (C/NF) Lastly, Japan's PolOff Katsunori Ashida quoted recent statements by his Foreign Minister: While there is no final decision as yet, "Japan may have to reel in" its aid. Reportedly, the FM further noted that a planned increase in Japan's aid program to Pakistan is now on hold. (Note: DCM separately briefed the Japanese on the integrated U.S. program for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and the Japanese took note of the U.S. willingness to take risks the GOJ was not.) ¶9. (C/NF) Comment: Many of the donor countries which make up this informal "like minded" group are groping for a response to Musharraf's November 3 actions. Some of them, prompted by international NGOs and with relatively little aid at stake, are prematurely pushing for an immediate cut-off. However, this "useful lever" can only be pulled once. End comment. PATTERSON