MGPK01: SITREP 12, ELECTIONS TO BE HELD BY FEB 15;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004797

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2017
TAGS: AEMR AMGT CASC KFLO PGOV PINR PK PREL
SUBJECT: MGPK01: SITREP 12, ELECTIONS TO BE HELD BY FEB 15;
BHUTTO TO "RISK LIFE" FOR RALLY

REF: ISLAMABAD 04776

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: President Musharraf announced today that
national elections would take place before February 15 and
that he would resign as Chief of Army Staff when the newly
constituted Supreme Court rules on his election case. Bhutto
exhorted supporters to join a PPP rally in Rawalpindi
November 9 despite government efforts to block it. The
Ministry of Information announced today that it would restore
eight to ten networks, as long as they agree to a strenuous
code of conduct allowing for government content control.
Major TV channels have still refused to comply with the code
of conduct. All Mission offices continue to operate
normally. End summary.

Elections by February 14
--------------


2. (C) National Security Advisor, Tariq Aziz confirmd media
reports that President Musharraf has decided to hold
elections by February 15. Further, Musharraf will resign as
Chief of Army Staff after the newly reconstituted Supreme
Court rules on the pending case regarding his eligibility for
the election he won on October 6.

PPP Rally to Proceed
--------------


3. (U) During a press conference, Pakistan People's Party
leader Benazir Bhutto exhorted supporters and others who
opposed the state of emergency to participate in a planned
PPP rally in Rawalpindi on November 9 despite efforts by the
government to block it. Bhutto stated that she would "risk
her life" by leading the rally. Ref A reports on GOP
requests that the U.S. convince Bhutto to stop the rally or
face house arrest. PPP contacts say the rally will proceed
despite reports of suicide bombers in Islamabad. The PPP
claims that the GOP is not providing necessary support in the
form of either transportation or security for tomorrow's
gathering.


4. (C) Ghafoor Haidri, an official within Jamaat-i Islami
(JI),confirms Geo TV reporting that the police did not allow
JI members inside Mansoorah to hold a Mutahida Majlis Amal
(MMA religious parties group) Supreme Council meeting.
Because of this refusal, Haidri and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam
(JUIF) leader Mauluan Fazlur Rehman, are being forced to hold
their meeting in an undisclosed location. Qazi Hussain
Ahmed, the leader of JI, will not be in attendance in that he
is currently under house arrest in Mansoorah.

Consulate Reports
--------------


5. Karachi: Courts are proceeding despite a lawyers' boycott.
At this time, protests by the lawyers, political parties,
journalists, or civil society organizations are not expected.


6. Punjab/Lahore: Approximately 150 PPP members were
arrested in Lahore and another 400 in other Punjab cities
following a series of party rallies in Punjab province.
According to sources, the numbers are likely to increase
significantly tonight in an attempt to ruin tomorrow's PPP
rally scheduled in Rawalpindi.


7. Peshawar: Although roughly 1000 protesters were expected,
JI managed to recruit only 350 protesters today in a peaceful
demonstration. A second JI demonstration is expected in the
Northwest Frontier Province tomorrow.

Possible Media Restoration
--------------


8. After several days of only the government-run PTV on the
air and the wily Geo TV network skirting the system, the
Minister of Information announced that 8 to 10 channels will
once again be able for viewing, including Business Plus,
CNBC, BBC, CNN, and Al-Jazeera. However, these channels must
agree to a strenuous government-imposed code of conduct,
leaving several of the more popular stations, including Dawn
and AAJ, to make the choice of government-controlled content

ISLAMABAD 00004797 002 OF 002


or more time off the air. As of 1830 local time, only CNBC
is being distributed.



PATTERSON