Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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07ISLAMABAD4791 | 2007-11-08 12:32:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Islamabad |
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004791 |
1. (C) Summary: Interior Minister Sherpao defended the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) and told DCM November 7 that elections likely would be delayed until March or April. Sherpao gave his personal assurances over the well-being of detained opposition lawyer Aitzaz Ahsan and agreed to look into reports that the government was expelling the International Republican Institute (IRI) and denying a visa to the local leader of The Asia Foundation. He expressed frustration with the political situation in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) and accused the USG of "not doing enough" to stabilize the area and to assist moderate groups. DCM promised to brief Sherpao on our security and development plan for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and said we would welcome ideas on how to improve the situation in the NWFP. End Summary. Elections -------------------------- 2. (C) In a November 7 meeting with Interior Minister Ahmed Khan Sherpao, DCM reiterated USG concerns over emergency rule, noting that USG officials were led to believe this was a temporary condition, and that President Musharraf must quickly announce a schedule for elections and the date he will resign from the Army. Sherpao defended the PCO, saying it was implemented because "there was no way within the constitution" to address the judiciary's alleged interference and to combat extremist elements in the NWFP, particularly in Swat. Sherpao said that the GOP would likely 'delay' elections until after the Muslim holiday of Moharrum in January, and possibly until March or April 2008. He also advocated for a "code of conduct" among political parties in which public gatherings are prohibited. Sherpao did not know whether President Musharraf would resign as Chief of Army Staff. Human Rights -------------------------- 3. (C) DCM expressed concern over the welfare of anti-government Pakistan People's Party attorney Aitzaz Ahsan, who was arrested November 3. Sherpao gave his personal assurances that Ahsan is well cared-for, is receiving his medicine; he promised to call Mrs. Ahsan to arrange for her to visit her husband. Sherpao further assured the DCM that, contrary to rumor, Aitzaz's wife is not and would not be harassed by authorities. The DCM encouraged Sherpao to release the lawyer as soon as possible, noting that his detention has mobilized the international human rights community and is causing tremendous problems for Pakistan overseas. DCM pointed to a call Deputy Secretary Negroponte received from Senator Conrad who informed him that 30 senators will sign a document expressing concern for the lawyer. Upon the DCM's request, Sherpao said he would look into arranging a visit between Aitzaz and USG officials. 4. (C) Sherpao claimed to have no knowledge of a letter sent to the International Republican Institute (IRI) from the Economic Affairs Division (EAD) instructing IRI to close. The DCM remarked the State Department had chosen IRI to organize our elections monitoring team, which would be in Pakistan beginning November 20. Sherpao promised to address the issue with his staff. DCM inquired as to why the visa of The Asia Foundation's local director, Jon Summers, had been canceled. Sherpao said he was unaware of this and would look into the matter. 5. (C) Sherpao brushed aside concerns over allegations that police officials are using a more forceful level of violence against demonstrators. DCM warned that this issue would reflect badly upon the minister, and the country's lawyers are "up in arms" about the situation. Sherpao said former president Zia al Haq used to employ public floggings to clamp down on protesters; but did concede that authorities' use of force is "a little in excess." NWFP Security -------------------------- 6. (C) Sherpao expressed particular concern over USG ISLAMABAD 00004791 002 OF 002 political engagement in the NWFP. He appeared frustrated with his party's inability to mobilize in the area, acknowledging its lack of support and the dominance there of the religious parties. His cited a recent trip to his village, where terror threats against him prevented movement of any kind and left him feeling as though he had been held "hostage." According to Sherpao, the security services now deployed have not been able to maintain effective control, and the governor needed to be replaced. Sherpao indicated he is willing to turn to the opposition (read Benazir Bhutto) for assistance. However, he accused the USG of not 'doing enough' to help moderate parties in the NWFP fight against terrorism and asked the USG to "come up with a plan." DCM offered to brief Sherpao on the U.S. security and development plan for the FATA and said we would welcome ideas on how to help Pakistan improve security in the NWFP. 8. C) Comment: Sherpao is focused more on the security situation than the political one, and his comments on the election follow a pattern of contradictory remarks from party and government officials. His concern about the rapidly deteriorating situation in the NWFP, however, is well placed. In Swat alone, Maulana Fazlullah now controls most of the district, and Talibanization is spreading into the settled areas. Neither massive Army intervention nor negotiations, were successful and the GOP seems to have run out of ideas on how to address the situation. With Musharraf focused on his political future, it is unlikely that the GOP will find solutions any time soon. End Comment. PATTERSON |