MGPK01: SITREP 11, AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD: ISOLATED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004776 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2017 TAGS: AEMR AMGT CASC KFLO PGOV PINR PK PREL SUBJECT: MGPK01: SITREP 11, AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD: ISOLATED PROTESTS CONTINUE ACROSS COUNTRY REF: ISLAMABAD 4766 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The National Security Council is meeting to discuss the current political/security situation. The National Assembly November 7 voted to approve the State of Emergency. In a meeting yesterday with Ambassador, PPP leader Bhutto said she is ready to work with Musharraf if he schedules elections and resigns from his post in the Army, but would otherwise take the PPP to the streets. Musharraf did not commit to an election timetable in a speech to National Assembly members yesterday. Standard and Poor's downgraded Pakistan's credit ratings. Pakistan press report President Bush yesterday called Musharraf and asked him to hold elections and resign from Army post. Isolated protests continue throughout country. Mission offices continue to operate normally. End summary. ¶2. (U) The media reports that, for the first time since the state of emergency was declared, the National Security Council is meeting to discuss "post-emergency" plans, the internal security situation (especially in Swat) and plans for elections. ¶3. (C) The National Assembly met November 7 and voted to approve the State of Emergency and congratulate Musharraf on his reelection. The Pakistan People's Party boycotted the session, and other opposition parties had already resigned, so this was a rump session of pro-government parties only. Before the session Pakistan Muslim League parliamentarians met with President Musharraf and lunched with Prime Minister Aziz. Contrary to press reports, Musharraf did not/not promise to hold elections on schedule. Post sources indicate Musharraf said the state of emergency was not a long-term solution to existing problems. Because "terrorism is getting out of hand, I have no idea how long it will take" to schedule elections. ¶4. (C) Ambassador met 7 November with Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader Benazir Bhutto (reftel). Bhutto told Ambassador she is ready to work with Musharraf after he schedules elections and resigns from the Army. Bhutto said she would take PPP to the streets if Musharraf did not honor his commitments. Bhutto plans to continue with a PPP rally tomorrow in Rawalpindi and said that she would organize a march November 13 from Lahore to Islamabad if Musharraf did not fulfill his commitments by November 9. GOP is trying to stop the PPP from renting buses to bring PPP supporters to Rawalpindi, according to mission contacts. The PPP held a party leadership conference in Islamabad today. ¶5. (C) Ambassador met 7 November with Attorney General Malik Qayyum (reftel). AG Qayyum said Musharraf would not schedule elections until the newly reconstituted Supreme Court ruled on the pending petition challenging Musharraf's presidential candidacy. Qayyum was still working on expanding the number of justices on the court, which he expected would begin to hear Musharraf's eligibility case next week. He predicted elections would be postponed until February and that Musharraf would resign as Chief of Army Staff, but not on November 15. Qayyum said that press restrictions would be lifted and that anti-government lawyers and human rights activists would be released within the next few weeks. (Embassy notes that it heard three different election scenarios from three different cabinet members the evening of 7 November.) ¶6. (U) Standard and Poor's Rating Services revised its outlook on Pakistan's long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings from stable to negative. S&P's announcement comes after Moody's Investor Services downgraded Pakistan's B1 and B2 local currency government bonds from stable to negative. Prior to announcing its ratings decision, a team from S&P's cut short its evaluation trip to Pakistan after the imposition of the state of emergency. ¶7. (U) All newspapers and private TV news stations (that can be seen through satellite dishes) highlighted President Bush's statements following his phone call to Musharraf and the NSC statement that "U.S. patience is not unlimited." The government has restored access to one local private TV news station, the local affiliate of CNBC, which broadcasts ISLAMABAD 00004776 002 OF 002 business (i.e., not political) news. ¶8. (U) The GOP is taking action to block the sale of satellite dishes, according to Pakistani press. In Karachi, police confiscated dish antennas; in Islamabad, Lahore, and Rawalpindi, police have told shopkeepers not to sell satellite dishes, according to the Pakistani press. Lahore ¶9. (U) Police yesterday tolerated student protests at the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS),the National University of Computer and Emerging Studies, and the Punjab University. Students at the Beaconhouse National University today are scheduled to observe a "black day" against the PCO. Police yesterday beat several reporters trying to cover the LUMS protests. ¶10. (U) Lahore CG also said that the GOP set up six sub-jails because of over-crowding in prisons. In a conversation with mission, Punjab Home Secretary said they are running out of prison space, but do not want to mix political detainees with the criminal population. ¶11. (C) Jamaat-i Islami (JI) leader Liaqat Baloch told Lahore CG that there is a (MMA) coalition meeting scheduled today to "mend fences between the JI and JUI-F." Karachi ¶12. (U) Karachi CG legal community continues to boycott the Sindh High Court and the city courts; a leader in the Balochistan Bar Association was yesterday arrested in Quetta after addressing a press conference and calling for demonstrations. Students and teachers at multiple universities yesterday observed a "black day"; small student protest reported near Consulate. The Sindh Taraqi Pasand Party (STPP) announced a protest throughout Sindh for 8 November and a strike for 9 November. Peshawar ¶13. (U) Peshawar CG received reports of more lawyers arrested and demonstrations by the legal community throughout the NWFP on 7 November. Students yesterday observed a "black day" in Peshawar and Charsadda by boycotting classes and organizing demonstrations. Peshawar CG said the JI is planning protests in Peshawar today; lawyers at the High Court continue their hunger strike. PATTERSON