MGPK01: SITREP 08, AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD: LAWYERS'

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004754 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2017 TAGS: AEMR AMGT CASC KFLO PGOV PINR PK PREL SUBJECT: MGPK01: SITREP 08, AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD: LAWYERS' PROTESTS CONTINUE REF: ISLAMABAD 4739 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Overall, the country remains calm. Sporadic lawyers' demonstrations occurred through the country, some involving police beatings of journalists and activists. The government agreed in theory to release 50-60 human rights activists in Lahore, but a paperwork glitch postponed their release until tomorrow morning. Human rights groups see this as a purposeful delay. The PM chaired a cabinet meeting to discuss a timetable for elections; the National Assembly is scheduled to meet November 7 to discuss the political situation. Benazir Bhutto arrived in Islamabad for a series of meetings and rallies. Press curbs have not been lifted on transmission of private TV news channels. All mission offices continued to operate normally. End summary. ¶2. (C) The government is calling the National Assembly into session November 7, but it is unclear if they will be voting on the Provisional Constitutional Order (CPO) or will only be briefed on the CPO Media report that Prime Minister Aziz chaired a cabinet meeting to discuss a timetable for parliamentary elections; no decisions have been announced as yet. ¶3. (C) Responding to international concerns, particularly ours, Punjab Chief Minister Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi informed PO Lahore that the 50-60 Human Rights Commission of Pakistan members currently under house arrest would be released on bail. The magistrate has delayed the release, and human rights groups see this as intentional. ¶4. (U) In an TV interview today, Asma Jahangir of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan said that efforts to get Musharraf to remove his uniform and hold free and fair elections without delay is good, but not enough. Efforts also need to target human rights abuses and the suspension of free media. She is still under house arrest. ¶5. (U) Ambassador called on the Election Commissioner to urge that elections be held on schedule. He assured her that he had no information to the contrary and was proceeding with electoral plans as soon as President Musharraf decides on a timetable. Following the meeting, Ambassador gave an interview to CBS and Pakistan Television. ¶6. (U) Embassy sources report that all senior members of Pakistan's many bar associations have been arrested, leaving the lawyer's movement without leadership. The total number of lawyers arrested in Lahore has reportedly reached 400 while "hundreds" more according to the media have been detained in Karachi. The Karachi Bar Association is on strike. At least 300-400 lawyers gathered at Peshawar's High Court, and other protest rallies were held at two bazaars in the city. In Lahore, a small peaceful protest took place at the Lahore University of Management. ¶7. (U) CG Karachi reports that at least six journalists were arrested outside the Karachi Press Club while covering a pro-democracy demonstration; at least one was beaten by police. There are reports of journalists and political activists (particularly Sindhi nationalists) being beaten in Sindh and Balochistan following gatherings at press club or bar association events. Police have been posted at the Peshawar Press Club to arrest anyone going there to protest the CPO and journalists have been warned that any resistance will bring punitive action. ¶8. (U) In Quetta yesterday, the Pashtoonkhwa National Democratic Alliance (PNDA),an alliance of the Pashtoonkhwa Milli Awami party whose leader was arrested in Quetta, called a successful strike in the city. A rally organized by the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) was planned for this afternoon in Peshawar, although some senior leaders are under house arrest. ¶9. (C) Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader Benazir ISLAMABAD 00004754 002 OF 002 Bhutto arrived in Islamabad an plans party meetings for November 7, a campaign rally in Rawalpindi November 9, and a reception for the diplomatic corps on November 10. PPP sources said the party has no plans to protest the PCO because "we have not been asked." Bhutto reportedly plans to call a meeting of the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD) and may also meet Musharraf at a date/time yet to be determined. ¶10. (C) At a weekly diplomatic meeting of "like-minded" countries, representatives from Commonwealth countries were in agreement that the Ministers' Action Group (CMAG) would threaten suspension of Pakistan's membership in the Commonwealth. Many representatives indicated that November 15 is a watershed date for their government. The EC Parliament is reportedly "reviewing" its aid package. ¶11. (U) The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) recovered by less than 1 per cent after a nearly five per cent drop yesterday. Analysts speculated that the market would recover since the majority of yesterday's losses was based on unfounded rumors that Musharraf was under house arrest. Yesterday's per cent drop was small in comparison to past market reactions to other major events in Pakistan's recent history. The KSE lost 12.4 per cent after Pakistan launched nuclear tests in May 1998, and lost 7.1 per cent after Musharraf deposed Nawaz Sharif in October 1999. ¶12. (U) Moody's Investors Service downgraded the outlook on Pakistan's B1 and B2 foreign and local currency government bonds from stable to negative, which underscores how vulnerable Pakistan's economy is to political uncertainty. Musharraf's political difficulties now appear to be a greater threat to investor confidence than previously. A further ratings downgrade could occur if external capital flows decrease significantly or if a loss of domestic confidence led to a slowdown in economic activity. Standard and Poors cut its evaluation trip short after the imposition of the state of emergency. PATTERSON