CHAUDHRY SHUJAAT PREDICTS ELECTIONS WILL PROCEED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004729 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PK SUBJECT: CHAUDHRY SHUJAAT PREDICTS ELECTIONS WILL PROCEED AS SCHEDULED REF: ISLAMABAD 4728 Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Pakistan Muslim League President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain said that President Musharraf would resign as Chief of Army Staff as promised and would hold parliamentary elections on schedule in January. Shujaat was surprised that earlier in the day President Musharraf had declined to confirm these decisions when briefing the diplomatic corps in Islamabad but said he would urge the President to make this clear. Shujaat predicted the Provisional Constitutional Order would be lifted in two-three weeks and said the block on private TV news channels was planned to last only three-four days. He dismissed USG concerns about arrests of civil society and opposition political leaders and urged us to concentrate on the important issues--elections and the transition to civilian leadership. Shujaat insisted that Benazir Bhutto would not win approval of a constitutional amendment allowing her to serve a third term as prime minister until after the elections. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Pakistan Muslim League (PML) President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain told Polcouns November 5 that President Musharraf did plan to resign as Chief of Army Staff and hold parliamentary elections as scheduled in January. He expressed surprise on hearing that Musharraf had declined to confirm this earlier in the day during a briefing to the diplomatic corps (reftel) and said he would call the President to urge that he make this clear. According to Shujaat, Pakistan needed to hold elections and the President needed to shed his uniform in order to maintain credibility; "we have promised this to several countries already and must keep our word," he said. When asked why the Prime Minister had indicated that elections might be postponed, Shujaat said that PM Aziz and some parliamentarians "want to keep their jobs a little longer." ¶3. (C) Shujaat brushed aside USG concerns about arrests of political opposition figures and human rights leaders saying these were "necessary administrative measures." Like his cousin Punjab Chief Minister Pervaiz Elahi, Shujaat noted that most of those arrested were under house arrest and able to use their phones. "When I was arrested under a previous regime, we didn't have that luxury--we were sent to jail." He said that the media links would be restored soon as they were planned to last "three or four days." But he urged that the U.S. concentrate on the important issues, which were the elections and the transition to civilian leadership. ¶4. (C) Shujaat confirmed that the government would present the Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) to the parliament for its blessing later this week, but this was a gesture only. Parliamentary approval was not required. He predicted the PCO would be lifted in two-three weeks. ¶5. (C) After the PCO was lifted, the government would announce the date for elections and establish the caretaker government. Without providing names, Shujaat said he was recommending a retired judge as the caretaker prime minister. He expected elections would be held some time in January. ¶6. (C) Shujaat agreed that the political opposition continued to be in disarray but declined to speculate on whether Pakistan People's Party leader Benazir Bhutto would support the ongoing lawyers' protests. "It is impossible to predict what Benazir will do," he said. Asked about rumors Bhutto would be in Islamabad this week, Shujaat asked "for a meeting with the President?" He then said that Bhutto would not get a constitutional amendment allowing her to seek a third term as prime minister "until after the election." The government should lift any remaining charges against Bhutto, "as we agreed" but could not confirm if the GOP had done so already. ¶7. (C) Comment: Shujaat several months ago proposed the scenario that played out this week for what he called "emergency plus" to replace the Supreme Court and end the legal challenges against Musharraf. He believes the PML should move towards elections now rather than delay, probably because they now control the government machinery that will best support his party's electoral chances. While he was ISLAMABAD 00004729 002 OF 002 clearly sincere in his support for proceeding with elections, Shujaat is not the only member of Musharraf's inner circle these days and the President's military/intelligence advisors may be offering conflicting counsel. PATTERSON