BHUTTO'S HOMECOMING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004472 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PK SUBJECT: BHUTTO'S HOMECOMING REF: ISLAMABAD 4439 Classified By: Ambassador Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: After over eight years in self-imposed exile, Pakistan People's Party leader Benazir Bhutto returned to Karachi October 18. Hundreds of thousands greeted her at the airport, while thousands of security personnel guarded her against terrorist assassination threats. Bhutto returns to a very different Pakistan than the one she left. Today, many members of her party and the much expanded private media are criticizing her deal with Musharraf. An emboldened Supreme Court has stayed implementation of the National Reconciliation Ordinance, the core of her deal with Musharraf, which granted her amnesty from corruption charges. She faces a tough parliamentary elections fight to win the right to serve again as Prime Minister. Still, her party has more political legitimacy than any other party in Pakistan. Today she is basking in the applause of her supporters. End summary. A Well-Oiled Machine -------------- ¶2. (U) Dressed in Islamic green and holding prayer beads, a tearful Benazir Bhutto returned to Karachi October 18 accompanied by party loyalists and 150 journalists. She told reporters that her goals were to restore democracy, eradicate poverty and fight terrorism. The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) turned out over 500,000--some reports suggest up to 2 million--supporters for her arrival. Hundreds of thousands of devotees lined her route from Karachi's international airport to the mausoleum of Pakistan's founder, Ali Jinnah. Tens of thousands more, bused in from her power base in Sindh, plus Balochistan and parts of the southern Punjab, patiently waited to see her pass by in an armored truck somewhat reminiscent of the pope-mobile. It was expected that her journey from the airport to the mausoleum and then to her family home would take 12 hours; Pakistani television continues live coverage of the event. ¶3. (SBU) Bhutto's next stop is scheduled to be her ancestral town of Larkana in Sindh Province. Larkana is where Bhutto's father, former Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, was entombed after being executed in 1979 by then President Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq. She is expected to stay in Larkana for up to 10 days. The PPP is debating Bhutto's next steps. These could include a road trip from Karachi to Lahore, or a flight to Islamabad and then a road trip to Lahore and the southern Punjab. The road trip would attempt to replicate the crowds that appeared for the Chief Justice earlier this year when he toured Pakistan after having been suspended by Musharraf. ¶4. (C) President Musharraf publicly requested that Bhutto abide by her agreement not to return before the January parliamentary elections. His Pakistan Muslim League (PML) party is concerned that Bhutto's return will prompt Saudi Arabia to allow recently re-deported former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif also to return and leach votes from the PML. An ambivalent PML also knows that Bhutto represents both Musharraf's negotiating partner and their biggest political rival. "There is no way to protect her" -------------- ¶5. (C) PPP supporters are concerned that "there is no way to protect her," but Bhutto nevertheless stood on top of her bulletproof truck to address the crowds. "There are intelligence reports that three different groups have plans to carry out attacks on Bhutto," stated Sindh Home Secretary Ghulam Mohammad Mohtaram. Two groups have been described as Pakistani jihadi groups with links to al Qaeda, and the third is Baitullah Mehsud's Taliban group, already responsible for holding 200-300 Pakistani soldiers hostage in Waziristan. ¶6. (C) Musharraf has assured the PPP that Bhutto will receive adequate security protection. Members of the government have been at pains to explain to Embassy officials that the GOP has done everything possible to provide for her security. To protect her, some 3,500 police and troops manned her route and rally. Additional specialized units, e.g., bomb disposal ISLAMABAD 00004472 002 OF 002 squads, monitored the scene and stood by ready to react. GOP interlocutors claimed that nearly 20,000 personnel were engaged in order to ensure Bhutto's safety. Officials also assured that cell phone coverage along the route would be shut down, bullet proof vehicles would be provided, and a helicopter might even be at her disposal to be able to by-pass the mega-city's most dangerous chokepoints. Not the Same Pakistan -------------- ¶7. (C) This is a different Pakistan than the one Bhutto left. The private media is larger and no longer shy about airing criticisms of Bhutto, and the Supreme Court is much more powerful. Most media today suggested that Bhutto had tainted her claim to support democracy by her "deal with the devil," a reference to her power sharing agreement with President Musharraf. ¶8. (C) The media carried numerous stories about pending corruption charges against Bhutto and her husband for alleged graft and kickbacks of millions if not billions of dollars. Her Washington comments about granting the IAEA access to AQ Khan, about allowing the U.S. to strike terrorist targets in Pakistan, and about asserting control over the military have drawn considerable criticism from various sectors in Pakistani society. ¶9. (C) Bhutto has rejected the allegations as politically motivated. Still, according to PPP contacts, Bhutto is concerned that Pakistan's Supreme Court may find the NRO unconstitutional. The Supreme Court already has stayed its implementation of the NRO, and technically this means that Bhutto could face arrest. Government sources have assured us she will not be arrested, but PML leaders did order that some PPP banners be taken down in Karachi. Actions in the National Accountability Board to withdraw cases against Bhutto also are on hold pending the Court's decision. ¶10. (C) Comment: Bhutto's planned road trip across Pakistan is based on hard analysis that the PPP faces a battle to win a majority in the upcoming parliamentary elections in January. Bhutto wants to solidify her base in Sindh and woo voters in Balochistan and Punjab. She will need to assuage her party's concerns about her continued independence from the PML and decide whether to reach out to the religious right or other opposition parties. She will have to fight for the right to again become Pakistan's Prime Minister. But for today, she is basking in the applause of hundreds of thousands of fans. End comment. PATTERSON