MUSHARRAF (UNOFFICIALLY) WINS ANOTHER 5-YEAR TERM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004340 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2017 TAGS: PGOV PK SUBJECT: MUSHARRAF (UNOFFICIALLY) WINS ANOTHER 5-YEAR TERM REF: A. ISLAMABAD 4337 ¶B. ISLAMABAD 4064 Classified By: Ambassador Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: According to unofficial results, President Musharraf has been re-elected by Pakistan's electoral college to another five-year term. An October 5 Supreme Court decision barred Pakistan's Election Commission from announcing the official results until pending court cases against Musharraf are adjudicated. In an effort to undercut Musharraf's credibility, most opposition party members were absent from the assemblies because they had resigned over the last few days. Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) abided by her deal with Musharraf and did not resign. However, by not even appearing during today's voting, the PPP continues to hold back its full support. Bhutto is expected to make an official announcement later today. End summary. Unofficial Results ¶2. (SBU) President Musharraf appears to have won in the presidential polls October 6. Voting took place in Pakistan's Electoral College, which is composed of the National and Provincial Assemblies, from 10 am to 3 pm October 6. Members could vote any time during the period, so most came in, voted, talked to colleagues, and left. Following the voting the Election Commission tallied the results in the presence of party representatives; because of the October 5 Supreme Court ruling, the Election Commission did not release an official result and will not until the Court finishes hearing the two pending cases challenging Musharraf's eligibility to seek re-election in uniform. ¶3. (SBU) The unofficial breakdown is as follows for Pervez Musharraf (Pakistan Muslim League),Makhdoom Amin Fahim (Pakistan People's Party),Wajihuddin Ahmed (independent/lawyers' federation) and Faryal Talpor (independent/the sister of Benazir Bhutto's husband). (Please note: the international media is erroneously separating the National Assembly into House and Senate results, although the Assembly and Senate convened today as one body. Different media sources are reporting slightly different numbers.) National Assembly: Musharraf 252; Ahmed 2; voided 3. Punjab Assembly: Musharraf 253; Ahmed 3; voided 1. Sindh Assembly: Musharraf 102; Ahmed 2; voided 1. Northwest Frontier Province: Musharraf 31; Ahmed 2; voided 2. Balochistan: Musharraf 33. ¶4. (SBU) In the Electoral College, there is a total of 702 possible votes; Musharraf won 345. Votes in the National Assembly count for one electoral college vote; votes in the provincial assemblies are weighted. According to the constitution, to win a candidate must only collect the most number of votes cast. Opposition: Resignations and Abstentions -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The media is focusing on the "empty chamber" story. About half of the 1,170 legislators who could have voted actually did (Ref B). With few exceptions, opposition members (including the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the six religious parties forming the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA),and most of the smaller nationalist parties) had already resigned from the National and Provincial Assemblies. The opposition knew it could not affect the outcome, so the resignations were designed to embarrass Musharraf and undercut his legitimacy. Notably, though, one Awami National Party and three MMA legislators crossed the aisle to vote at the National Assembly. ¶6. (C) The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) met the letter, if not the spirit, of its October 5 power sharing agreement with Musharraf. As agreed with Musharraf, the PPP did not resign and "abstained" from the vote. But the PPP also did not appear in the assemblies for today's voting. The PPP's local spokesman Farhatullah Babar said that, absent a final Supreme Court decision, the PPP still considers it unconstitutional ISLAMABAD 00004340 002 OF 002 for Musharraf to run for office in uniform. The party, therefore, did not want to give Musharraf added credibility by appearing in chambers today. However, PML General Secretary Mushahid Hussain downplayed the PPP's absence. He SIPDIS told A/DCM that PML was satisfied that the PPP had kept their agreement. ¶7. (SBU) Babar said that Bhutto would make an official statement on the election later today but could not confirm when. PPP candidate Amin Fahim could not legally withdraw his candidacy after yesterday's Musharraf-Bhutto agreement, but he received no votes in the balloting. Some Clashes in Peshawar and Karachi -------------- ¶8. (U) Islamabad and Lahore were quiet, and voting was orderly. There were violent clashes in Peshawar between lawyers and police when the polling representative for Ahmed was apparently denied access to the provincial assembly building to observe the vote. Police responded with tear gas to protesters burning an effigy of Musharraf. In Karachi, there was some violence with demonstrators throwing stones at police. ¶9. (C) Comment: The October 5 Supreme Court decision to block announcement of an official winner and the opposition walkout robbed Musharraf of an unequivocal win today, but his supporters are nevertheless celebrating. Bhutto stuck to the letter of her agreement with Musharraf but clearly is hedging her bets until there is a final Supreme Court decision on Musharraf's eligibility. The Court is not scheduled to take up the cases again until October 17 and could deliberate another two or more weeks after that. PATTERSON