Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ISLAMABAD4337
2007-10-05 13:55:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:
MUSHARRAF SIGNS DEAL WITH BHUTTO; COURT DELAYS RELEASE OF OFFICIAL ELECTION TALLY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004337
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PK
SUBJECT: MUSHARRAF SIGNS DEAL WITH BHUTTO; COURT DELAYS RELEASE OF OFFICIAL ELECTION TALLY
REF: (A) ISLAMABAD 4309 (B) ISLAMABAD 4271
Classified By: Ambassador Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004337
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PK
SUBJECT: MUSHARRAF SIGNS DEAL WITH BHUTTO; COURT DELAYS RELEASE OF OFFICIAL ELECTION TALLY
REF: (A) ISLAMABAD 4309 (B) ISLAMABAD 4271
Classified By: Ambassador Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
1. (C) Summary. President Musharraf October 5 signed the “reconciliation package†sealing his agreement with Pakistan People's Party leader Benazir Bhutto. Meanwhile, Pakistan's Supreme Court ruled that the presidential election, scheduled for October 6, can proceed. However, the Court barred the Election Commission from announcing the official election results until petitions from two presidential challengers can be heard in full. The government plans to hold the election and issue unofficial results. End Summary.
Reconciliation Package
2. (C) President Musharraf October 5 signed the “reconciliation package†negotiated over the past few days with Pakistan People's Party leader Benazhir Bhutto (Ref A and previous). The deal grants indemnity to Bhutto and other politicians and civil servants accused of corruption. The package also includes measures to increase electoral transparency and outline a code of conduct for the political parties.
Court Ruling
3. (C) The Supreme Court October 5 also upheld the Election Commission's decision to hold the presidential election on October 6. The Court has been hearing two petitions filed by presidential candidates Amin Fahim (Pakistan People's Party) and Wajihudden Ahmed (lawyers' fraternity). The petitions challenge the Election Commission's decision to allow Musharraf to run for re-election in uniform. One of those petitions asked the Court to stay the election until a decision had been reached on the cases; the Court denied that request today. However, the Court also ordered the Election Commission not to release official results of the polling until after it had finished hearing the two cases. The Court plans to renew hearing arguments on the case October 17, after the Eid holiday. Court sources expect it will take at least two weeks to complete arguments.
4. (C) President Musharraf issued a statement saying he would accept the Court's verdict. Ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) Secretary General and Senator Mushahid Hussain told A/DCM that the parliament would go forward with the process and announce the “unofficial†results of the election after the voting. Attorney General Malik Qayyum welcomed the ruling, saying that it was an acceptance of Musharraf standing for election while remaining Chief of Army Staff. Ahmed's spokesperson called today's judgment “a half victory,†indicating there was still a chance that the Court would rule against Musharraf.
5. (C) PPP party members have not yet received instructions from Bhutto over whether to attend, abstain or participate in tomorrow's election. PPP attorney Khosa told POLOFF that if the deal goes through, he expects that Amin Fahim will withdraw his candidacy. This would pave the way for the PPP to support the election with its presence but abstain from the vote, as worked out in the Musharraf-Bhutto agreement. Fahim suggested to the Ambassador that he would still be a candidate, so we are not sure if the PPP has a made a final decision.
6. (C) Comment: Approval of the reconciliation package caps painstaking negotiations to form what will be a difficult partnership between Musharraf and Bhutto. Musharraf has the votes in the electoral college to win re-election October 6, but the resignation of 86 National Assembly and significant numbers of Provincial Assembly members may weaken his legitimacy. Still, Musharraf has gotten a serious shot in the arm from the Bhutto deal since the PPP has the most democratic credibility among the rather sorry panoply of Pakistani parties.
7. (C) Following today's ruling, the specter of yet another Court decision against Musharraf still hangs in the air. Government supporters are betting that the Court's decision after the fact of the election will be irrelevant, and many analysts here agree. Bhutto will resume planning for a triumphant arrival in Karachi October 18. Both Musharraf and Bhutto likely will turn to shoring up support for the deal within their rank and file and preparing for parliamentary elections that will determine the balance of power between them in the next government.
PATTERSON
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PK
SUBJECT: MUSHARRAF SIGNS DEAL WITH BHUTTO; COURT DELAYS RELEASE OF OFFICIAL ELECTION TALLY
REF: (A) ISLAMABAD 4309 (B) ISLAMABAD 4271
Classified By: Ambassador Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
1. (C) Summary. President Musharraf October 5 signed the “reconciliation package†sealing his agreement with Pakistan People's Party leader Benazir Bhutto. Meanwhile, Pakistan's Supreme Court ruled that the presidential election, scheduled for October 6, can proceed. However, the Court barred the Election Commission from announcing the official election results until petitions from two presidential challengers can be heard in full. The government plans to hold the election and issue unofficial results. End Summary.
Reconciliation Package
2. (C) President Musharraf October 5 signed the “reconciliation package†negotiated over the past few days with Pakistan People's Party leader Benazhir Bhutto (Ref A and previous). The deal grants indemnity to Bhutto and other politicians and civil servants accused of corruption. The package also includes measures to increase electoral transparency and outline a code of conduct for the political parties.
Court Ruling
3. (C) The Supreme Court October 5 also upheld the Election Commission's decision to hold the presidential election on October 6. The Court has been hearing two petitions filed by presidential candidates Amin Fahim (Pakistan People's Party) and Wajihudden Ahmed (lawyers' fraternity). The petitions challenge the Election Commission's decision to allow Musharraf to run for re-election in uniform. One of those petitions asked the Court to stay the election until a decision had been reached on the cases; the Court denied that request today. However, the Court also ordered the Election Commission not to release official results of the polling until after it had finished hearing the two cases. The Court plans to renew hearing arguments on the case October 17, after the Eid holiday. Court sources expect it will take at least two weeks to complete arguments.
4. (C) President Musharraf issued a statement saying he would accept the Court's verdict. Ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) Secretary General and Senator Mushahid Hussain told A/DCM that the parliament would go forward with the process and announce the “unofficial†results of the election after the voting. Attorney General Malik Qayyum welcomed the ruling, saying that it was an acceptance of Musharraf standing for election while remaining Chief of Army Staff. Ahmed's spokesperson called today's judgment “a half victory,†indicating there was still a chance that the Court would rule against Musharraf.
5. (C) PPP party members have not yet received instructions from Bhutto over whether to attend, abstain or participate in tomorrow's election. PPP attorney Khosa told POLOFF that if the deal goes through, he expects that Amin Fahim will withdraw his candidacy. This would pave the way for the PPP to support the election with its presence but abstain from the vote, as worked out in the Musharraf-Bhutto agreement. Fahim suggested to the Ambassador that he would still be a candidate, so we are not sure if the PPP has a made a final decision.
6. (C) Comment: Approval of the reconciliation package caps painstaking negotiations to form what will be a difficult partnership between Musharraf and Bhutto. Musharraf has the votes in the electoral college to win re-election October 6, but the resignation of 86 National Assembly and significant numbers of Provincial Assembly members may weaken his legitimacy. Still, Musharraf has gotten a serious shot in the arm from the Bhutto deal since the PPP has the most democratic credibility among the rather sorry panoply of Pakistani parties.
7. (C) Following today's ruling, the specter of yet another Court decision against Musharraf still hangs in the air. Government supporters are betting that the Court's decision after the fact of the election will be irrelevant, and many analysts here agree. Bhutto will resume planning for a triumphant arrival in Karachi October 18. Both Musharraf and Bhutto likely will turn to shoring up support for the deal within their rank and file and preparing for parliamentary elections that will determine the balance of power between them in the next government.
PATTERSON