PAKISTAN: UPDATE ON OPPOSITION RESIGNATIONS

UNCLAS ISLAMABAD 004290 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PK SUBJECT: PAKISTAN: UPDATE ON OPPOSITION RESIGNATIONS REF: ISLAMABAD 4271 ¶1. (U) Eighty-six members of the opposition alliance All Pakistan Democratic Movement (APDM) resigned October 2 from the National Assembly, according to Speaker Chaudhary Amir Hussain. The speaker's office has not yet formally accepted the resignations, but Hussain announced that he would consult a legal expert on whether they could be accepted before the October 6 presidential election. ¶2. (U) Also on October 2, opposition politicians resigned from three of the four provincial assemblies - Balochistan, Sindh and Punjab. Speakers of Balochistan and Sindh Assemblies have already accepted their colleagues' resignations. The Punjab Assembly Speaker has not yet formally responded to the 46 assembly members who filed resignations there. ¶3. (U) Two members of Mutihidda Majlis-e-Amal (MMA),the main component of APDM, have already retracted their resignations of yesterday from the Balochistan Assembly. In the Sindh Assembly, another member of MMA refused to resign, defecting to the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam Group). NWFP: Pro-Government Forces Stall Assembly's Dissolution. ¶4. (U) In the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP),the pro-government minority bloc preempted dissolution of the MMA-controlled assembly by launching a no confidence vote against NWFP Chief Minister Akram Khan Durrani. If the assembly is eventually dissolved, the APDM hopes to undermine Musharraf's political legitimacy, although such an action would have no effect on his re-election. In its October 3 session to debate and vote on the no confidence motion, media reported "a rumpus in the house," causing the assembly's speaker to adjourn the session until October 4. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: Despite these resignations, the GOP is confident of the final count on October 6, secure in the knowledge that Musharraf has the votes for re-election regardless of the opposition's political maneuvers. Rampant reports of a Musharraf-Bhutto deal in the form of a "National Reconciliation Ordinance" also seems to have buoyed the pro-Musharraf camp. The GOP is hoping that the opposition Pakistan People's Party (PPP) will keep its members in the assemblies and simply abstain, legitimizing the process and not recording a vote against Musharraf. End comment. PATTERSON