AMBASSADOR'S INTRODUCTORY CALL ON FAZLUR REHMAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004273



SIPDIS



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2017

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, EAID, PTER, PK

SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S INTRODUCTORY CALL ON FAZLUR REHMAN



Classified By: Anne. W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d).



1. (C) Summary. During a September 28 courtesy call with

National Assembly Opposition Leader Fazlur Rehman, Ambassador

discussed U.S. plans to provide economic and social

development assistance to Pakistan's tribal areas,

U.S.-Afghan policy, and our support for democracy in

Pakistan. Rehman repeatedly indicated a desire to work for

peace and against extremism, but, not suprisingly, said he

believes coalition military operations in Afghanistan

undermine those goals. Rehman, who is know as being the

shrewdest politician in Pakistan, strikes us as being a

classic power broker who knows he holds several trump cards

in the coming Pakistani elections. End Summary.



FATA Development

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2. (C) Ambassador described the U.S. plans for providing

economic, health and education assistance in the Federally

Administered Tribal Area (FATA) and said the U.S. hoped that

the Rehman and his JUI-F party would support these efforts to

improve the quality of life in FATA. Rehman responded that

the had been supporting USAID efforts since they restarted

programs five to six years ago and would continue to do so.



Afghanistan

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3. (C) However, Rehman said that the situation in the FATA

was being influenced by events in Afghanistan. Rehman's

repeatedly said his Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) supports

peace and reconciliation as the only way forward in

Afghanistan, but the violence there is spilling over into the

FATA. Reiterating views he has expressed publicly, Rehman

said that the Afghan people are not convinced that U.S.

intentions are positive, and this is a problem for both the

U.S. and for Pakistan. He noted that the USSR had promised

Afghanistan economic aid but no one believed them; now, the

Afghan people doubt the ultimate U.S. goals as well. He

urged the U.S. to shift from a military strategy to one based

on economic and political development.



4. (C) Ambassador responded that the U.S. is supports the

Afghan government and President Karzai's efforts at political

reconciliation. The U.S. and its coalition allies have no

intention of being a permanent occupying force, but we must

help the GOA establish security and are committed in the long

term to assisting economic and social development in both

Afghanistan and Pakistan.



5. (C) Rehman said that these were good intentions; he

recognizes the power of the U.S. and welcomes its positive

support. Rehman said Karzai had spoken to him about national

reconciliation as well. But he questioned whether the Afghan

outreach was anything more than a goodwill gesture. He told

Karzai that it was important to engage the insurgents, as

there could be no progress on reconciliation without them.

But how, he asked, can Karzai engage the Taliban when they

are living in caves, hiding out because they are labeled as

terrorists? Ambassador noted that this issue had been

discussed when the Deputy Secretary met in Kabul with

Pakistan and Afghan Presidential Advisors Aziz and Rassoul.

The Afghan government has opened the door to those who

sincerely wanted reconciliation.



Pakistan Politics

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6. (C) Ambassador reitered U.S. support for free and fair

elections in Pakistan and asked Rehman for his views on the

current political scene. Rehman replied that he had worked

with previous administrations, including those of Zia al-Haq

and Benazir Bhutto. He supported the return of both Nawaz

Sharif and Benazir Bhutto. Bhutto will discover, he

predicted, that she is out of touch with the common man in

Pakistan. He suggested that Bhutto believes she can use U.S.

support to "make fools" of people here. He was concerned

that some of Bhutto's recent statements were alienating

Pakistanis, especially in his party. He cited Bhutto's

comments against madrassas and her stated intention to

eliminate extremism. It appeared, he said, that she was



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parroting U.S. concerns without understanding the true

situation in Pakistan and this would not help national

reconciliation.



7. (C) According to Rehman, JUI-F wants to give the

extremists "sentimental satisfaction" so that they will work

within the constitutional framework. This will allow them to

vet their grievances. He suggested that if the JUI-F is

included in a ruling coalition, this will enhance efforts to

moderate extremist groups. If Bhutto controls the coalition,

however, this will lead to confrontational politics that will

spill over to damage Pakistan's relations with Afghanistan,

India, China, Iran and ultimately the U.S. What was needed,

according to Rehman, was balance to create a prosperous,

peaceful Pakistan that has good relations with the U.S. In

closing, Rehman said he had been invited to attend the

National Prayer Breakfast in Washington three years in a row

but was disappointed he could never get a visa.



8. (C) Comment. Rehman is considered to be the shrewdest

politician in Pakistan. The JUI-F is the largest member of

the religious parties bloc, is included in the coalition

ruling the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP),and holds sway

over the largest group of tribes in the FATA. This makes

Rehman capable of delivering the NWFP assembly to Musharraf

in the presidential election, providing the key Senate votes

required for a constitutional amendment that Benazir Bhutto

needs to serve a potential third term as prime minister, or

throwing his considerable political weight behind the

opposition party block organized by Nawaz Sharif.



9. (C) In his meeting with the Deputy Secretary (Reftel),

Musharraf mentioned Rehman three times as the key figure in

GOP efforts to control extremism in the FATA and balance what

will be perceived locally as an overly pro-Western alliance

between Musharraf and Bhutto. In exchange, Musharraf

reportedly will offer Rehman a key government position in the

NWFP government. Rehman's ultimate goal is to be prime

minister, but he knows that scenario is out of reach at the

moment.



10. (C) Rehman talks to and takes favors from all sides,

including Taliban supporters in the FATA and across the

border in Afghanistan. He met last week with recently

deported former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Saudi Arabia

(Note: the GOP released him from house arrest of opposition

leaders in order to travel to Saudi for umrah and meet with

Nawaz. end note). He is critical of U.S. policies in

Afghanistan. But he does not strike us as being an extreme

Islamic fundamentalist; instead, he is more of a classic

power broker who knows he holds several trump cards in the

coming elections. End Comment.

PATTERSON