ANOTHER LEGAL BATTLE FOR MUSHARRAF; MASS POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 004271

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PK
SUBJECT: ANOTHER LEGAL BATTLE FOR MUSHARRAF; MASS POLITICAL
RESIGNATIONS

REF: A. ISLAMABAD 4209

B. ISLAMABAD 4235

Classified By: Ambassador Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: Pakistan's Supreme Court agreed October 2 to
begin immediate hearings on petitions filed by two opposition
presidential candidates challenging Musharraf's right to seek
re-election in uniform. Simultaneously, in an effort to
embarrass Musharraf, 86 opposition politicians resigned en
masse from the National Assembly, and others resigned from
three of the four Provincial Assemblies. Notably, Pakistan
People's Party members did not resign. On both the legal and
political front, the GOP voiced confidence that Musharraf
will be re-elected on October 6. End summary.

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Back to Court for Some
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2. (U) Pakistan's Supreme Court will hear October 3 petitions
challenging Musharraf's right to seek re-election in uniform.
The cases were filed by Musharraf's two main presidential
challengers to Musharraf -- Pakistan People's Party (PPP)
Amin Fahim and the legal fraternities' Wajihuddin Ahmed.
Their petitions appeal the September 29 decision of
Pakistan's Election Commission that Musharraf is an eligible
candidate.


3. (U) Fahim's petition further asks the Court to stay the
October 6 election until a final judgment can be reached.
The Ahmed petition also argues that the next president should
be chosen by new National and Provincial Assemblies after a
general election.


4. (C) While the opposition has gotten the Supreme Court to
hear the two petitions immediately, they lost their bid to
have the full 17-member bench rule on the joined case.
Instead, a nine-justice panel, led by pro-Musharraf Justice
Javed Iqbal, will hear the case. Iqbal is one of five
justices who will serve on this panel and also were part of
the 6-3 ruling in Musharraf's favor on September 28.

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Mass Resignations
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5. (U) Joined by 1,000 peaceful demonstrators, 86 National
Assembly members belonging to the opposition All Pakistan
Democratic Movement (APDM) marched October 2 on parliament to
resign prior to the presidential contest. Speaking at the
October 2 resignation rally, Parliamentary opposition leader
Fazlur Rehman, of the religious Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam party
(JUI-F),announced more demonstrations for October 6.
Pakistan's Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan went
further, predicting that the public would join opposition
legislators in the streets.


6. (U) Opposition party members also resigned October 2 from
three of the four Provincial Assemblies -- Punjab (46),
Balochistan (25) and Sindh (7). Resignations from the
Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) Assembly were postponed by
procedural action to block the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal
(MMA)-controlled Assembly from dissolving.


7. (C) Noticeably absent from those resigning were PPP
politicians. Septels report on progress made in
Musharraf-Bhutto negotiations over a power-sharing
arrangement. A key component of that deal is Bhutto's
promise not to support PPP resignations.


8. (C) Comment: Musharraf now faces yet another legal
hurdle, although the composition of this bench would seem to
favor a pro-Musharraf decision. He still has the simple
majority of votes required for re-election, and in a sign of
his growing confidence, Musharraf named General Kiyani the
new Vice Chief of ARMY Staff, to be come the new Chief when
Musharraf resigns. Behind the scenes, however, Musharraf's
party is working overtime to close the deal with Bhutto and
block dissolution of any of the four Provincial Assemblies
required to ensure his re-election.
PATTERSON