ANOTHER LEGAL BATTLE FOR MUSHARRAF; MASS POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 004271 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2017 TAGS: PGOV PK SUBJECT: ANOTHER LEGAL BATTLE FOR MUSHARRAF; MASS POLITICAL RESIGNATIONS REF: A. ISLAMABAD 4209 ¶B. ISLAMABAD 4235 Classified By: Ambassador Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Pakistan's Supreme Court agreed October 2 to begin immediate hearings on petitions filed by two opposition presidential candidates challenging Musharraf's right to seek re-election in uniform. Simultaneously, in an effort to embarrass Musharraf, 86 opposition politicians resigned en masse from the National Assembly, and others resigned from three of the four Provincial Assemblies. Notably, Pakistan People's Party members did not resign. On both the legal and political front, the GOP voiced confidence that Musharraf will be re-elected on October 6. End summary. -------------- Back to Court for Some -------------- ¶2. (U) Pakistan's Supreme Court will hear October 3 petitions challenging Musharraf's right to seek re-election in uniform. The cases were filed by Musharraf's two main presidential challengers to Musharraf -- Pakistan People's Party (PPP) Amin Fahim and the legal fraternities' Wajihuddin Ahmed. Their petitions appeal the September 29 decision of Pakistan's Election Commission that Musharraf is an eligible candidate. ¶3. (U) Fahim's petition further asks the Court to stay the October 6 election until a final judgment can be reached. The Ahmed petition also argues that the next president should be chosen by new National and Provincial Assemblies after a general election. ¶4. (C) While the opposition has gotten the Supreme Court to hear the two petitions immediately, they lost their bid to have the full 17-member bench rule on the joined case. Instead, a nine-justice panel, led by pro-Musharraf Justice Javed Iqbal, will hear the case. Iqbal is one of five justices who will serve on this panel and also were part of the 6-3 ruling in Musharraf's favor on September 28. -------------- Mass Resignations -------------- ¶5. (U) Joined by 1,000 peaceful demonstrators, 86 National Assembly members belonging to the opposition All Pakistan Democratic Movement (APDM) marched October 2 on parliament to resign prior to the presidential contest. Speaking at the October 2 resignation rally, Parliamentary opposition leader Fazlur Rehman, of the religious Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam party (JUI-F),announced more demonstrations for October 6. Pakistan's Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan went further, predicting that the public would join opposition legislators in the streets. ¶6. (U) Opposition party members also resigned October 2 from three of the four Provincial Assemblies -- Punjab (46), Balochistan (25) and Sindh (7). Resignations from the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) Assembly were postponed by procedural action to block the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA)-controlled Assembly from dissolving. ¶7. (C) Noticeably absent from those resigning were PPP politicians. Septels report on progress made in Musharraf-Bhutto negotiations over a power-sharing arrangement. A key component of that deal is Bhutto's promise not to support PPP resignations. ¶8. (C) Comment: Musharraf now faces yet another legal hurdle, although the composition of this bench would seem to favor a pro-Musharraf decision. He still has the simple majority of votes required for re-election, and in a sign of his growing confidence, Musharraf named General Kiyani the new Vice Chief of Army Staff, to be come the new Chief when Musharraf resigns. Behind the scenes, however, Musharraf's party is working overtime to close the deal with Bhutto and block dissolution of any of the four Provincial Assemblies required to ensure his re-election. PATTERSON