PAKISTAN'S WHEAT SHORTAGE AND FOOD INFLATION ADD TO

UNCLAS ISLAMABAD 004254

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/PB, EB/TPP
USDA FOR FAS/OCRA/SHATZ/RADLER, OGA/CHAUDHRY/ROCKE, OFSO/DEVER
USAID FOR ANE MWARD
COMMERCE FOR ANESA/OSA
DOHA FOR FCS/PEASLEE

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ETRD ECON EAGR PREL PK

SUBJECT: PAKISTAN'S WHEAT SHORTAGE AND FOOD INFLATION ADD TO
RAMADAN WORRIES


1. SUMMARY: During this year's holy month of Ramadan, the average
Pakistani is more concerned about finding a bag of flour than who
will win the upcoming elections. A combination of overly optimistic
production estimates, increased domestic consumption, a temporary
lifting of the export ban, and rising food inflation have produced a
demand for wheat imports despite 2006 carryover wheat stocks of over
four million tons.


2. Over the first week of Ramadan, wheat flour was selling at
nearly twice pre-Ramadan levels - if bags of flour could be found at
all. Accusations of hoarding abound. The price of all food items
has risen 40 percent since the start of the holy days. The GOP's
announcement on September 15 that they will allow the import of one
million tons of wheat somewhat calmed the markets as overall price
inflation has begun to ease. In addition to the desire for food
prices to return to normal, Pakistanis have two questions. Where is
the wheat and will hoarders be punished for their actions? END
SUMMARY.

INFLATED CROP ESTIMATE STARTED THE TROUBLE
--------------


3. The GOP continues to maintain its estimate of a 2007 bumper
wheat crop of 23.5 million tons, despite average yearly production
of about 21.5 million tons. Analysts questioned the official
estimate throughout the growing season since the wheat planted area
increased by only one percent over the previous crop year, while the
official estimate reflected an incredible 10 percent rise in
production. Growing conditions were indeed favorable, but most
believe the crop is at least one million tons lower than the GOP
estimate. (Comment: FAS Islamabad's unofficial forecast of the
crop in March 2007 was 21.8 million tons. End Comment.)


4. In April 2007, the GOP lifted the ban on wheat exports that was
imposed in 2003. Traders quickly took advantage of the wide price
spread between Pakistani wheat and the international grain market.
Exporters shipped out 500,000 tons of wheat before the GOP
reinstated the export ban on wheat by land and sea on May 25, 2007.
Despite the small window of opportunity, exports had the desired
effect of raising farm prices. However, wheat exports also had the
negative effect of starting the spiral of food inflation which would
slowly simmer in early summer to ignite during Ramadan.


FOOD INFLATION MAJOR CONCERN
--------------


5. The GOP's inflation target for both FY 2007 and FY 2008
(July-June) was established at 6.5 percent. In FY 2007, the CPI
actually rose 7.8 percent. It is estimated that the FY 2008 CPI
will increase by 7.5 percent, mainly reflecting higher food prices.
Food inflation this August alone reached 8.6 percent as prices for
rice, beans, peas, lentils, vegetables, fruit and other food
commodities rose steeply.


6. Wheat and flour prices began rising in May, following the brief
opening of the wheat export window. By August, accusations of
speculative hoarding by major traders and businessmen in Punjab and
Sindh Provinces were rampant. In May, a kilo of wheat flour cost
12-14 rupees ($0.20-0.23). By the first week of Ramadan, the cost
of flour had risen 80 to 85 percent to 22 rupees ($0.37),with
widespread concern that prices would soon rise 100% to 25 rupees
($0.42).


7. While wheat and flour prices initiated the inflation spiral, the
cost of all food items rose 40 percent during the first week of
Ramadan, due in part to the paradoxical increased demand for food
during the month-long daylight fast. Families normally hold large
"iftari" evening meals to break the Ramadan fast, inviting family
and friends. This feasting/fasting cycle causes not only digestive
complaints and weight gain, but contributes to food inflation as
families prepare larger and more elaborate than normal meals.


8. In response to supply problems and inflationary pressure, the
GOP began releasing wheat stocks to flour mills on September 7. On
September 15, the GOP announced its intention to import 1 million
tons of wheat. These combined actions caused a lagged reaction the
following week as flour prices in the major cities are now floating
around 16-18 rupees ($0.27-0.30) per kilo, approaching the GOP's
original target price of 14.25 rupees ($0.24) per kilo. Prices in
the NWFP and Balochistan are generally slightly higher due to

transportation costs -- reportedly around 20 rupees ($0.33) per
kilo.

WHERE'S THE WHEAT?
--------------


9. Despite the government's inflated crop estimate, there should
have been plenty of wheat flour available in Pakistan at this time
of year. However, a series of events caused a chain reaction
resulting in empty shelves of wheat flour at retail outlets.


10. While destinations and volumes of exports during the April-May
period are not yet officially released, likely buyers of the 500,000
tons include countries in the Middle East and South Asia, as well as
India. In addition, at least one million tons of wheat and wheat
flour was smuggled into India and Iran due to the favorable price
differentials. While a Pakistani living in a border town can earn
about one third more than his daily wage as a laborer by smuggling a
single 20 kilo bag of flour into India, most smuggling is organized
and carried out by influential groups.


11. Due to a lack of operating flour mills, wheat is not normally
exported to Afghanistan. Consequently, flour is legally exported to
Afghanistan with a 15 percent export tax. In addition, illegal
smuggling into Afghanistan and onwards to the Central Asian
Republics has siphoned flour out of Pakistan.


12. Speculative hoarders, mainly big commodity traders and others
with sufficient influence and warehouse capacity, could be sitting
on as much as 2 million tons of wheat. It is assumed that the GOP
knows where much of this wheat is located but the public and press
are doubtful that any of the hoarders will be held responsible for
their actions.


13. A final factor is domestic consumption which has increased this
year as well. Most of the domestic wheat utilization of 22 million
tons is for human consumption; however, the high price of corn and
broken rice relative to wheat has resulted in farmers increasing
their utilization of wheat in poultry and livestock feed. Also, the
high price of rice has contributed to increased human consumption of
wheat. This has likely pushed domestic wheat demand above 23
million tons.


14. Taking all of the above into consideration, and assuming the
GOP maintains its 4 million ton wheat reserve, analysts calculate
the shortfall in wheat anywhere between 1.5 and 2.5 million tons.

IMPORTS NEEDED DURING A PERIOD OF WORLDWIDE SHORTAGE
-------------- --------------


15. On September 15, 2007, Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz announced
that the GOP would import one million tons of wheat, stating that
this action was necessary to "maintain a reasonable buffer stock for
the future." The export price for Pakistani wheat during the
April-May export window was approximately $225-232 per ton. For
December 2007 delivery, Pakistan is now looking at an import price
of $380-400 per ton. The timing couldn't be worse. World wheat
stocks are at a 26-year low, mainly due to severe weather conditions
in the major production areas of Canada, Australia, the EU and
Ukraine. Consequently, wheat prices have hit all-time record highs.



16. The GOP subsequently decided to make smaller wheat purchases,
rather than a single 1 million ton purchase. It announced a tender
for 100,000 tons of wheat for December delivery with additional
tenders expected monthly. GOP officials cited overbooking at the
Port of Karachi and the problems berthing larger vessels as well as
the need for a monthly review of the wheat situation as reasons for
moving away from a single tender. They have also hinted that they
may lift the ban on private imports. We expect that Pakistan will
provide a subsidy for the imported wheat to cover the differential
between the government issue price and the import price.

COMMENT
--------------


17. (SBU) The GOP unwittingly walked into a perfect storm scenario
on wheat during the election season. Not only were its initial
estimates of this year's wheat harvest overly optimistic, but its
well-intentioned decision to lift the four-year wheat export ban
further contributed to shortages and price increases. Increased

Ramadan demand further contributed to price increases and supply
shortages. Inflation, particularly food inflation, is frequently
cited in polls here as a primary concern of the Pakistani public.
It is surprising that the Pakistanis have borne this inconvenience
stoically, with no demonstrations or violence that might have
occurred elsewhere.


18. (SBU) The food "crisis" scenario which played out this summer
points to the fact that the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and
Livestock does not have a coordinated long-term commodity policy.
There are no staff economists or commodity experts advising
policymakers on critical issues affecting the wider economy.
Consequently, the GOP did not have the foresight to see the
implications of maintaining an artificially high crop estimate or
allowing wheat exports. Lowering the official crop estimate would
have had the same effect on farm prices as exports, while keeping
more wheat within Pakistan.

PATTERSON