REACTION TO PRO-MUSHARRAF RULING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004209

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV PK
SUBJECT: REACTION TO PRO-MUSHARRAF RULING

REF: ISLAMABAD 4206

Classified By: Ambassador Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: Musharraf's spokesman lauded the September 28
Supreme Court ruling allowing the President to run for
re-election in uniform and called on all sides to respect the
rule of law. Musharraf's coalition partner, the Muttahida
Qaumi Movement (MQM),called on Musharraf to doff his uniform
before the October 6 presidential election.
Amid street protests by lawyers' groups, the Election
Commission September 29 approved the candidacy of Musharraf,
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) nominee Amin Fahim and
Wajihuddin Ahmed, a retired justice. Fahim and Ahmed may
challenge Musharraf's candidacy in the courts next week. The
opposition continues to try and organize a mass resignation
October 2 from the National and Provincial Assemblies. End
summary.

"President respects ruling."
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2. (U) "The President respects and honors the judgment of the
Supreme Court, as always," said presidential spokesman Rashid
Qureshi. Government supporters celebrated into the night
after the Supreme Court ruled late September 28 to dismiss on
technical grounds the challenges to Musharraf's right to run
for re-election in uniform. The press framed this
pro-Musharraf ruling as a "great victory" for the President
after a summer of losses before the same court.


3. (U) Speaking at an emergency cabinet meeting, Prime
Minister Shaukat Aziz urged the opposition "to show enough
courage to accept the ruling as justice demands." Aziz
turned to the October 6 election, predicting that the ruling
Pakistan Muslim League (PML)-MQM coalition would have enough
votes to elect Musharraf and would not seek the support of
any other parties, including the PPP. MQM leaders called the
Supreme Court decision "historic," but also urged Musharraf
to take off the uniform before the October 6 election.

Bhutto: "This is a temporary reprieve."
--------------


4. (U) PPP leader Benazir Bhutto is quoted as saying that
"this is a temporary reprieve and the real test will come
when the nomination is challenged." Reacting to the
technical grounds on which the petitions were rejected by the
Court, Bhutto predicted that Musharraf would face another
"more serious" legal challenge once his nomination was
accepted by the Election Commission.

Disunited Opposition
--------------


5. (C) The All Pakistan Democratic Movement (APDM) opposition
group organized by Nawaz Sharif offered resigned disapproval.
PML-Nawaz acting president Makhdoom Javed Hashmi (recently
released from jail) labeled the Court's ruling as "a
continuation of the infamous doctrine of necessity," used by
prior military dictatorships. The APDM continues to try and
organize a mass resignation October 2 from the National and
Provincial Assemblies in order to embarrass Musharraf. But
the religious block in APDM remains divided on the issue and,
without PPP support, this endeavor also threatens to fizzle
out.

Election Commission Validates; Police Overreact
-------------- --


6. (C) The Election Commission September 29 approved the
nominations for Musharraf, PPP candidate Amin Fahim and
former Supreme Court Justice Wajihuddin Ahmed. Attorneys for
Fahim and Ahmed registered their objections with the Election
Commission to Musharraf's eligibility; the Commission
promptly rejected them. Yesterday's Supreme Court ruling was
based largely on the technicality that the petitioners had no
stake in the process; today, there are two opposition
candidates who now have a legal stake and may act upon it.
Ahmed likely will appeal next week to the Supreme Court.
Fahim told A/DCM that if the Musharraf-Bhutto power sharing
agreement is not completed by October 1, he is considering

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another legal challenge to Musharraf as well.


7. (C) Police were again massed in riot control gear
September 29 in front of the Election Commission and the
Supreme Court. Several hundred lawyers clashed with police,
who fired tear gas into the crowd. Several people, including
journalists, were injured, and at least two participants were
hospitalized.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) The pro-Musharraf decision by the Supreme Court was
not a surprise, and much of the reaction by the GOP and the
various opposition groups was pre-scripted. The PPP is
predicating its next steps on progress in the ongoing
Musharraf-Bhutto negotiations, but they are running out of
time to seal the agreement. The rest of the opposition has
so far been unable to unite on a common strategy to embarrass
Musharraf with a mass resignation on October 2. Musharraf's
legal battles could resume as early as Monday. End Comment.

PATTERSON