REACTION TO PRO-MUSHARRAF RULING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 004209 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2017 TAGS: PGOV PK SUBJECT: REACTION TO PRO-MUSHARRAF RULING REF: ISLAMABAD 4206 Classified By: Ambassador Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Musharraf's spokesman lauded the September 28 Supreme Court ruling allowing the President to run for re-election in uniform and called on all sides to respect the rule of law. Musharraf's coalition partner, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM),called on Musharraf to doff his uniform before the October 6 presidential election. Amid street protests by lawyers' groups, the Election Commission September 29 approved the candidacy of Musharraf, Pakistan People's Party (PPP) nominee Amin Fahim and Wajihuddin Ahmed, a retired justice. Fahim and Ahmed may challenge Musharraf's candidacy in the courts next week. The opposition continues to try and organize a mass resignation October 2 from the National and Provincial Assemblies. End summary. "President respects ruling." -------------- ¶2. (U) "The President respects and honors the judgment of the Supreme Court, as always," said presidential spokesman Rashid Qureshi. Government supporters celebrated into the night after the Supreme Court ruled late September 28 to dismiss on technical grounds the challenges to Musharraf's right to run for re-election in uniform. The press framed this pro-Musharraf ruling as a "great victory" for the President after a summer of losses before the same court. ¶3. (U) Speaking at an emergency cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz urged the opposition "to show enough courage to accept the ruling as justice demands." Aziz turned to the October 6 election, predicting that the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML)-MQM coalition would have enough votes to elect Musharraf and would not seek the support of any other parties, including the PPP. MQM leaders called the Supreme Court decision "historic," but also urged Musharraf to take off the uniform before the October 6 election. Bhutto: "This is a temporary reprieve." -------------- ¶4. (U) PPP leader Benazir Bhutto is quoted as saying that "this is a temporary reprieve and the real test will come when the nomination is challenged." Reacting to the technical grounds on which the petitions were rejected by the Court, Bhutto predicted that Musharraf would face another "more serious" legal challenge once his nomination was accepted by the Election Commission. Disunited Opposition -------------- ¶5. (C) The All Pakistan Democratic Movement (APDM) opposition group organized by Nawaz Sharif offered resigned disapproval. PML-Nawaz acting president Makhdoom Javed Hashmi (recently released from jail) labeled the Court's ruling as "a continuation of the infamous doctrine of necessity," used by prior military dictatorships. The APDM continues to try and organize a mass resignation October 2 from the National and Provincial Assemblies in order to embarrass Musharraf. But the religious block in APDM remains divided on the issue and, without PPP support, this endeavor also threatens to fizzle out. Election Commission Validates; Police Overreact -------------- -- ¶6. (C) The Election Commission September 29 approved the nominations for Musharraf, PPP candidate Amin Fahim and former Supreme Court Justice Wajihuddin Ahmed. Attorneys for Fahim and Ahmed registered their objections with the Election Commission to Musharraf's eligibility; the Commission promptly rejected them. Yesterday's Supreme Court ruling was based largely on the technicality that the petitioners had no stake in the process; today, there are two opposition candidates who now have a legal stake and may act upon it. Ahmed likely will appeal next week to the Supreme Court. Fahim told A/DCM that if the Musharraf-Bhutto power sharing agreement is not completed by October 1, he is considering ISLAMABAD 00004209 002 OF 002 another legal challenge to Musharraf as well. ¶7. (C) Police were again massed in riot control gear September 29 in front of the Election Commission and the Supreme Court. Several hundred lawyers clashed with police, who fired tear gas into the crowd. Several people, including journalists, were injured, and at least two participants were hospitalized. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The pro-Musharraf decision by the Supreme Court was not a surprise, and much of the reaction by the GOP and the various opposition groups was pre-scripted. The PPP is predicating its next steps on progress in the ongoing Musharraf-Bhutto negotiations, but they are running out of time to seal the agreement. The rest of the opposition has so far been unable to unite on a common strategy to embarrass Musharraf with a mass resignation on October 2. Musharraf's legal battles could resume as early as Monday. End Comment. PATTERSON