Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ISLAMABAD3744
2007-08-28 02:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:
PAKISTAN'S UNCERTAIN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
how-toVZCZCXRO1584 PP RUEHLH RUEHPW DE RUEHIL #3744/01 2400225 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 280225Z AUG 07 FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1358 INFO RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA PRIORITY 2209 RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 7463 RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 1635 RUEHRH/AMEMBASSY RIYADH PRIORITY 5676 RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI PRIORITY 7173 RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE PRIORITY 3257 RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR PRIORITY 1690 RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 2871 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY RHWSMRC/USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003744
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN'S UNCERTAIN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
Classified By: DCM Peter Bodde, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
1, (C) Summary: With the anticipated return of exiled leaders Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto on the horizon, the political atmosphere in Pakistan is buzzing. Politicians of all stripes are full of nervous energy as they try to decipher the various signals from their party leadership abroad and in Pakistan. Timing remains the key question: when will Sharif and/or Bhutto return? Rumors of deals, accommodations, and reconciliations with Musharraf continue to spread, reinforced by furtive meetings both in Pakistan and abroad of key Musharraf stalwarts and opposition party leaders. The emboldened Chief Justice and the rising violence in the tribal areas add another level of complexity and uncertainty to an already anxious political scene. End Summary.
NAWAZ SHARIF
--------------
2. (C) Following the 23 August Supreme Court ruling in his favor, Nawaz and Shahbaz vowed in television appearances this weekend to return “soon.†Nawaz ordered his supporters to plan for his return, but there is rampant speculation on when he will actually appear. Nawaz called his top party leaders to a meeting in London this week to consider the options. His party is enjoying some new-found popularity based on the public perception that Nawaz stood his ground and did not make a deal with Musharraf.
3. (C) But whether Nawaz's party can capitalize on this sudden popularity may depend on whether Nawaz returns before the September 15-16 presidential election. The press reports that Musharraf this weekend echoed his Attorney General in warning that Nawaz would be arrested if he returned. Even Nawaz party stalwarts question their leader's appetite for jail. On August 25, the Accountability Court declined to accept the GOP's bid to re-open three corruption cases against Nawaz, at least not until he actually returned to Pakistan. But current and former justices are debating in the press whether Musharraf has the legal right to reinstate previous charges against Nawaz.
4. (C) There was press speculation that Nawaz would buy some time by going to SAUDI for Ramadan, and the Attorney General headed for SAUDI ARABIA today, presumably to convince the royal family to increase pressure on Nawaz. The press also reported on a July meeting (before the court verdict) in which the son of assassinated Lebanese President Saad Hariri warned Nawaz not to return to Pakistan.
5. (C) Sharif's party leadership claims that if he returns, there will be major defections from the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Musharraf's party). Nawaz may have picked up support of 15-20 members of Musharraf's party, but that will not be enough to change the electoral equation in the indirect presidential election. Even with a secret ballot, it is unlikely that a significant number of major politicians from Punjab will defect to a party that lacks strong political organization. If Nawaz makes a deal with the government and returns after the presidential election, he will have lost significant moral capital but will still be a large boon to his party members as they campaign for the general elections.
BENAZIR BHUTTO
--------------
6. (C) Bhutto, too, has instructed her followers to prepare for her triumphant return, but they are equally in the dark about their leader's true intentions on a deal with Musharraf. Even loyalists are at a loss to explain her strategy of negotiating on two tracks--through Musharraf's interlocutors and in the foreign press, where she is increasingly specific about her demands. Bhutto also called all her top PPP leaders to London for emergency meetings this week.
7. (C) PPP members describe an ideal scenario in which the current National Assembly passes a legislative package that removes the two-term limit on prime ministers, removes the requirement that a presidential candidate wait two years after leaving government office to run, and restricts the tenure of supreme court justices. This scenario assumes that Musharraf will have taken off his uniform before the presidential elections, and it would have to be enacted in time to pre-empt a court challenge of his right to run for re-election. Proponents believe this scenario would appeal to Bhutto, Musharraf and, to a lesser extent even to Nawaz Sharif.
MUSHARRAF
--------------
8. (C) Musharraf dispatched Presidential Advisor Tariq Aziz and Presidential Chief of Staff Hamid Javaid to London for talks with Bhutto this week. Musharraf August 25 also called for a government of “national consensus†to be set up after parliamentary elections, and his unofficial spokesman, Minister for Railways Sheikh Rashid, said of Bhutto that “naturally, she would enjoy powers in the government.†.
9. (C) In a sign that party loyalists are considering their options if he does not take off the uniform, Musharraf's party was forced to extend for five days applications for party electoral slates. Musharraf's party president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussein has also busy creating alternative alliances through outreach to both the religious party leader Fazlur Rehman and even to recently released from jail Nawaz party leader Javed Hashmi. Shujaat is concerned that Nawaz could pick up support from the religious parties, and Musharraf is seeking to split the religious block in his favor. Bhutto, in this weekend's press, accused Shujaat of efforts to block the Musharraf-Bhutto alliance.
CHIEF JUSTICE
--------------
10. (U) Meanwhile, on August 25 the Chief Justice issued a statement saying that the organs of the state must work independently and cease encroaching others' duties. He noted that the Court was now receiving approximately 600 applications daily about human rights and public interest cases, and he urged the lower courts to reduce the caseload burden on the Supreme Court. Musharraf also made a gesture to the court by replacing the Law Minister allegedly responsible for pushing the case against the Chief Justice
11. (C) Comment: In a Sunday editorial, the daily newspaper “Dawn†commented with derision that foreign powers knew more about the fate of Pakistani politics than the Pakistani people themselves. It appears that the Chief Justice is coming to realize the need to control the wave of pent-up emotion that his reinstatement set in motion, but it is not clear that realization will help Musharraf. The media also reported an every growing tally of violent attacks in the tribal areas, including a video of a beheading of a Frontier Corpsman in Waziristan (septel). Within this climate of uncertainty, there is also continued talk of a state of emergency or martial law. We expect the political climate to remain confused and tense, at least until the presidential election.
PATTERSON
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN'S UNCERTAIN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
Classified By: DCM Peter Bodde, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
1, (C) Summary: With the anticipated return of exiled leaders Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto on the horizon, the political atmosphere in Pakistan is buzzing. Politicians of all stripes are full of nervous energy as they try to decipher the various signals from their party leadership abroad and in Pakistan. Timing remains the key question: when will Sharif and/or Bhutto return? Rumors of deals, accommodations, and reconciliations with Musharraf continue to spread, reinforced by furtive meetings both in Pakistan and abroad of key Musharraf stalwarts and opposition party leaders. The emboldened Chief Justice and the rising violence in the tribal areas add another level of complexity and uncertainty to an already anxious political scene. End Summary.
NAWAZ SHARIF
--------------
2. (C) Following the 23 August Supreme Court ruling in his favor, Nawaz and Shahbaz vowed in television appearances this weekend to return “soon.†Nawaz ordered his supporters to plan for his return, but there is rampant speculation on when he will actually appear. Nawaz called his top party leaders to a meeting in London this week to consider the options. His party is enjoying some new-found popularity based on the public perception that Nawaz stood his ground and did not make a deal with Musharraf.
3. (C) But whether Nawaz's party can capitalize on this sudden popularity may depend on whether Nawaz returns before the September 15-16 presidential election. The press reports that Musharraf this weekend echoed his Attorney General in warning that Nawaz would be arrested if he returned. Even Nawaz party stalwarts question their leader's appetite for jail. On August 25, the Accountability Court declined to accept the GOP's bid to re-open three corruption cases against Nawaz, at least not until he actually returned to Pakistan. But current and former justices are debating in the press whether Musharraf has the legal right to reinstate previous charges against Nawaz.
4. (C) There was press speculation that Nawaz would buy some time by going to SAUDI for Ramadan, and the Attorney General headed for SAUDI ARABIA today, presumably to convince the royal family to increase pressure on Nawaz. The press also reported on a July meeting (before the court verdict) in which the son of assassinated Lebanese President Saad Hariri warned Nawaz not to return to Pakistan.
5. (C) Sharif's party leadership claims that if he returns, there will be major defections from the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Musharraf's party). Nawaz may have picked up support of 15-20 members of Musharraf's party, but that will not be enough to change the electoral equation in the indirect presidential election. Even with a secret ballot, it is unlikely that a significant number of major politicians from Punjab will defect to a party that lacks strong political organization. If Nawaz makes a deal with the government and returns after the presidential election, he will have lost significant moral capital but will still be a large boon to his party members as they campaign for the general elections.
BENAZIR BHUTTO
--------------
6. (C) Bhutto, too, has instructed her followers to prepare for her triumphant return, but they are equally in the dark about their leader's true intentions on a deal with Musharraf. Even loyalists are at a loss to explain her strategy of negotiating on two tracks--through Musharraf's interlocutors and in the foreign press, where she is increasingly specific about her demands. Bhutto also called all her top PPP leaders to London for emergency meetings this week.
7. (C) PPP members describe an ideal scenario in which the current National Assembly passes a legislative package that removes the two-term limit on prime ministers, removes the requirement that a presidential candidate wait two years after leaving government office to run, and restricts the tenure of supreme court justices. This scenario assumes that Musharraf will have taken off his uniform before the presidential elections, and it would have to be enacted in time to pre-empt a court challenge of his right to run for re-election. Proponents believe this scenario would appeal to Bhutto, Musharraf and, to a lesser extent even to Nawaz Sharif.
MUSHARRAF
--------------
8. (C) Musharraf dispatched Presidential Advisor Tariq Aziz and Presidential Chief of Staff Hamid Javaid to London for talks with Bhutto this week. Musharraf August 25 also called for a government of “national consensus†to be set up after parliamentary elections, and his unofficial spokesman, Minister for Railways Sheikh Rashid, said of Bhutto that “naturally, she would enjoy powers in the government.†.
9. (C) In a sign that party loyalists are considering their options if he does not take off the uniform, Musharraf's party was forced to extend for five days applications for party electoral slates. Musharraf's party president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussein has also busy creating alternative alliances through outreach to both the religious party leader Fazlur Rehman and even to recently released from jail Nawaz party leader Javed Hashmi. Shujaat is concerned that Nawaz could pick up support from the religious parties, and Musharraf is seeking to split the religious block in his favor. Bhutto, in this weekend's press, accused Shujaat of efforts to block the Musharraf-Bhutto alliance.
CHIEF JUSTICE
--------------
10. (U) Meanwhile, on August 25 the Chief Justice issued a statement saying that the organs of the state must work independently and cease encroaching others' duties. He noted that the Court was now receiving approximately 600 applications daily about human rights and public interest cases, and he urged the lower courts to reduce the caseload burden on the Supreme Court. Musharraf also made a gesture to the court by replacing the Law Minister allegedly responsible for pushing the case against the Chief Justice
11. (C) Comment: In a Sunday editorial, the daily newspaper “Dawn†commented with derision that foreign powers knew more about the fate of Pakistani politics than the Pakistani people themselves. It appears that the Chief Justice is coming to realize the need to control the wave of pent-up emotion that his reinstatement set in motion, but it is not clear that realization will help Musharraf. The media also reported an every growing tally of violent attacks in the tribal areas, including a video of a beheading of a Frontier Corpsman in Waziristan (septel). Within this climate of uncertainty, there is also continued talk of a state of emergency or martial law. We expect the political climate to remain confused and tense, at least until the presidential election.
PATTERSON