PAKISTAN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE, PART 1: POLITICAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003199

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE, PART 1: POLITICAL
PARTY PRIMER

REF: ISLAMABAD 1842


1. (SBU) Summary. Pakistan's multi-party parliamentary
system includes large personality-based secular parties,
regional nationalist/ethnic parties with limited appeal and
surprisingly democratic religious parties. Party/personal
loyalty and a spoils system count for more with voters than
often non-existent party platforms. Illiterate workers often
vote as directed by feudal landowners or factory owners in a
politically moderate but religiously conservative Islamic
society. Three key politicians lead their parties from exile
in London, and few but the wealthy elite can afford to run
for office. Despite institutional constraints, the constant
activity of this alphabet soup of parties keeps Pakistan's
political scene vibrant. This cable is the first in a series
exploring Pakistan's political party landscape in the run-up
to 2007/2008 parliamentary elections. End summary.

THE RULING COALITION
--------------


2. (U) The ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML),often
referred to as PML-Q (Quaid-i-Azam),is President Musharraf's
ruling party. The PML enjoys Pakistan's best brand-name in
politics, since the country's founder Muhammad Ali Jinnah led
the original Muslim League. The PML controls 153 seats in the
342-seat National Assembly. PML president Chaudhry Shujaat
Hussain and his cousin Punjab Chief Minister Pervaiz Elahi
are the main political actors within the party; and they help
to maintain PML's strong support base in the Punjab,
Pakistan's most populous province. There are several other
smaller parties in the ruling coalition, including the
Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) and the Pakistan People's
Party-Sherpao (PPP-S).


3. (SBU) Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM): A secular democratic
party by its manifesto, the MQM is concentrated in Sindh and
has been known for its violent past. The party's base remains
the "mohajirs," those Pakistanis who migrated from India at
partition, and their descendants. The MQM has 18 seats in the
National Assembly. The party's founder, Altaf Hussain, lives
in London, reportedly because he fears for his safety in
Pakistan. Political violence on May 12 in Karachi has largely
been blamed on the MQM and has tarnished its efforts to gain
nation-wide appeal.


4. (U) Pakistan People's Party-Sherpao (PPP-S): Interior
Minister Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao leads a small faction of
the PPP that broke off from Benazir Bhutto's main party to
join President Musharraf's coalition. The PPP-S holds only 2
seats in the National Assembly; however, Sherpao is highly
influential in his native Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP).


THE OPPOSITION PARTIES
--------------


5. (U) Pakistan People's Party (PPP): The PPP was founded by
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, whose daughter Benazir inherited the
party after Zia ul-Haq's regime executed her father. It is
the most liberal of the national parties in Pakistan and has
promoted both economic and social reforms. It remains
centered around the personality of Benazir Bhutto, who has
lived in self-imposed exile in London and Dubai since 1999.
Bhutto faces corruption charges in Pakistan and abroad from
her two previous terms as Prime Minister (1988-90, 1993-96).
The PPP holds 55 seats in the National Assembly, which is
over one-third of the opposition bench, and is overall the
single most popular party in Pakistan. The PPP's stronghold
remains in Sindh, but it also enjoys grassroots support
nationwide.


6. (U) Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N): The Nawaz
faction split from the PML after the Musharraf-led coup in

1999. Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz, both of whom
divide their time between London and Saudi Arabia, lead the
party. After the 1999 coup, the Pakistan Supreme Court found
Nawaz guilty of corruption and Musharraf exiled him to Saudi
Arabia until 2010. The PML-N holds 16 seats in the

ISLAMABAD 00003199 002 OF 002


opposition. The July 2007 formation of a new All Parties
Democratic Alliance effectively ended PML-N's uncomfortable
alliance with the PPP. The PML-N has a support base among
right-of-center Punjabis, especially those in medium-sized
industrial cities.


7. (U) Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA): The MMA, a political
alliance of six religious parties, has 66 seats in the
National Assembly and thus holds the most seats in the
opposition. It is the ruling party in the NWFP provincial
assembly and is in the ruling coalition with the PML-Q in the
Baluchistan provincial assembly. The two largest and most
influential parties in the MMA are the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI)
and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F). MMA president Qazi Hussain
Ahmad also leads the JI and his party's support base is in
the urban middle class. Maulana Fazlur Rehman is the leader
of the opposition in the National Assembly and also leads the
JUI-F. His party appeals mostly to Pashtuns in the NWFP and
Baluchistan. The JI is a revivalist party similar to the
Muslim Brotherhood and it appeals to a narrow sector of the
educated, conservative middle class. The JUI-F is a more
traditional Deobandi party that has far wider appeal to
tribal conservatives.


8. (SBU) Pakistan Tehreek Insaaf (PTI): Led by former
Pakistan cricket star, Imran Khan, PTI holds only one seat in
the national assembly. Though a minor party, Khan's
media-savvy opposition message endears him to many Pakistanis
and expatriates. PTI - with little political capital of its
own to lose - is a vocal supporter of the new opposition
alliance with the PML-N and the MMA.


9. (U) The Nationalist Parties: The other smaller parties in
the opposition include Pashtun nationalist parties: Awami
National Party (ANP) and Pukhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party
(PKMAP). There are several Baluch nationalist parties in the
opposition: Baluch National Party (BNP),National Party (NP),
and Jahmoori Watan Party (JWP). All the nationalist parties
are secular and appeal to their regional and ethnic
constituencies and feel disenfranchised by Punjabi-dominate
national politics. All have minimal political power at the
national level.

PATTERSON