MUSHARRAF TELLS EDITORS: IT IS MODERATES VS.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003128 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2017 TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV PK SUBJECT: MUSHARRAF TELLS EDITORS: IT IS MODERATES VS. EXTREMISTS; HE WILL SEEK RE-ELECTION IN UNIFORM Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a surprisingly wide ranging and confident interview with senior Pakistani editors July 18, President Musharraf flatly stated that Pakistan was in a direct confrontation with extremist forces and the biggest challenge was to stop the spread of Talibanization. To win that fight required a "unified" civilian-military command; therefore, he will run for re-election as president, in uniform, before the current assemblies. He reviewed a military response but also reached out for media/civil society support. Addressing the concerns of the political opposition, he pledged not to impose a state of emergency and to honor the constitution and hold "free and fair" elections when the current assemblies' term expires. Opposition parties, which had vowed efforts to block Musharraf's re-election from the current assemblies, now face the challenge of how to respond. End Summary. ¶2. (U) President Musharraf talked to a group of senior newspaper editors on July 18. While we have no transcript of the conversation, the media reported that Musharraf said: -- We are in direct confrontation with extremist forces. It is moderates vs. extremists. He appealed to moderates to support the government in this fight. -- Pakistan's biggest challenge is to stop the spread of Talibanization. -- Two full Pakistan Army divisions had been dispatched to the NWFP and FATA, and steps were underway to increase and strengthen local paramilitary forces. -- He will not use the current violence as a pretext to impose a state of emergency. -- Only a "unified command" of civilian and military leadership can defeat the extremists. A civilian government alone cannot handle this military situation. -- He will stand for re-election as president, without taking off his uniform (as Chief of Army Staff),before the current assemblies' terms expire. -- Parliamentary elections will be free and fair, and they will be held on time - by early next year at the latest. -- He rejected the conclusions of the latest U.S. National Intelligence Estimate assessing that Pakistan had failed to prevent the regrouping of al Qaeda along the Pak-Afghan border. Opposition Reaction -------------- ¶3. (C) Musharraf will face a firestorm of criticism from opposition parties for his decision to seek re-election, in uniform, before the current assemblies. Many of his opponents had hoped Musharraf would wait until after national and provincial elections (scheduled to occur by early next year) because they believe that the ruling Pakistan Muslim League party will lose seats in the national and provincial assemblies. At an All Parties Opposition conference in London July 7-8 (septel),there were calls for a mass resignation from parliament if Musharraf attempted reelection from the current assemblies. However, the two opposition parties with the largest electoral base, the Pakistan People's Party and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, did not endorse the call for mass resignation. The opposition thus remains fragmented in how to move forward. Musharraf/MFA Reject U.S. NIE -------------- ¶4. (U) In rejecting the latest U.S. National Intelligence Estimate, Musharraf told the editors that the country was in open battle with Islamic militants, that al Qaeda was on the run in tribal areas and that the flow of Taliban from Pakistan into Afghanistan has been reduced. He added that two divisions of Army troops had deployed to troubled border areas (between Dera Ismail Khan and Malakand) and that these troops will be supplemented in December by a newly-trained ISLAMABAD 00003128 002 OF 002 and better-equipped paramilitary force that would handle the militancy. ¶5. (U) Foreign Office Spokesperson Tasneem Aslam on July 18 echoed Musharraf's rejection, stating "It does not help simply to make assertions about the presence or regeneration of al Qaeda... What is needed is concrete and actionable information and intelligence sharing." Aslam also re-asserted Pakistan's territorial sovereignty: any counter-terror action on Pakistani soil would be conducted by Pakistani security forces. ¶6. (C) Comment: Editors reported that Musharraf appeared more relaxed and confident than he has been in months. The Red Mosque operation appears to have galvanized his determination to launch a campaign against extremists and provided what he sees as a clear rationale to seek re-election in uniform. In reaching out to moderates in media and society, however, Musharraf recognized that the fight against extremists cannot be won with military forces alone. Although opposition political parties will severely criticize Musharraf's decision to seek re-election, in uniform, before the current assembly, the fragmented opposition faces a challenge in how to respond. PATTERSON