RED MOSQUE AFTERMATH; DEMISE OF NORTH WAZIRISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003084 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC PK SUBJECT: RED MOSQUE AFTERMATH; DEMISE OF NORTH WAZIRISTAN AGREEMENT? Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Peter Bodde, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) operation was a catalyst for implementation of this weekend's attacks on Pakistani security forces in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) and the FATA. However, the attacks were primarily a tribal response to the growing re-deployment of government security forces in the area and are likely to continue. Despite the July 14 announcement by militants that the North Waziristan Agreement was dead, the government may try one more time to revive it. End Summary. Spate of Attacks in NWFP and FATA -------------- ¶2. (C) On July 14 and 15, three suicide attacks, in North Waziristan, Dera Ismail Khan, and the Swat valley, left approximately 70 Pakistanis dead and 100 wounded, mostly security forces. Authorities defused a large bomb in a busy marketplace in Peshawar on July 14, and rocket attacks against a Bannu-area military outpost and the Malakand University campus in Chakdara damaged buildings but resulted in no casualties. ¶3. (C) President Musharraf condemned the attacks and called for a cabinet meeting on July 16 to review plans for military operations in the NWFP and FATA. In a nationwide speech July 12 to defend the Lal Masjid operation, Musharraf pledged to root out extremism and promised additional troops and equipment for the Frontier Corps. Weak Political Protests Against Red Mosque Operation -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Over the weekend, political protests against the Lal Masjid operation were relatively weak. On July 13, the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) coalition of religious parties organized small protests in Peshawar, Quetta, and Islamabad. However, on July 16, MMA leader Liaqat Baloch told PolOff the party was now shifting its focus back to the Chief Justice's case, Musharraf's uniform, and general elections. Pakistan People's Party leader Benazir Bhutto warned against any alleged efforts to delay elections because of the security situation. There is continued press speculation about civilian casualties from the Lal Masjid operation as familles continue to wait for news on the whereabouts of students, some of whom remain in police custody. End of the North Waziristan Agreement? -------------- ¶5. (C) On July 14, Islamic militants (including Taliban members) announced the end of their ten-month old "peace agreement" with the government. The September 2006 agreement had been brokered by a jirga of tribal leaders, and its main points called for government withdrawal from checkpoints in exchange for an end to attacks on Pakistani security forces, an end to cross-border movement of fighters for military operations in Afghanistan, and expulsion of foreign militants. Both the government and the militants have claimed continuous violations of the agreement. Militants have been claiming that the government broke that agreement after May re-deployments to checkpoints in Swat and North and South Waziristan. ¶6. (C) There have an ongoing series of militant attacks on security forces in North and South Waziristan since the May 22 Pakistani military attack on Zargarkhel and the June 19 and 23 NATO strikes on Datta Khel and Shawal. Azmat Hanif, Secretary to NWFP Governor Ali Mohammed Jan Orakzai, said on SIPDIS July 16 that the government could make one last effort to revive the North Waziristan Agreement, but that talks would be "tough" and include a charge sheet of militant violations (septel from Consulate Peshawar). After months of working to delay or deter military operations, Orakzai may finally be willing to stop opposing military action. ¶7. (C) Comment: While the Lal Masjid operation was ISLAMABAD 00003084 002 OF 002 probably the catalyst for this weekend's attacks, growing tribal resentment at the Army's redeployment into the NWFP and FATA was--and remains--the root cause. Therefore, we expect these attacks to continue. It may be premature to announce the death of the government's North Waziristan Agreement. With our without a formal pact, the government will want to keep lines of communication with the militants open in order to execute military operations with minimum casualties. PATTERSON