SCENESETTER: CHAIRMAN JCS GENERAL PACE MEETING

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 ISLAMABAD 002316 SIPDIS //////CORRECTED COPY - CLASSIFIED BY LINE ADDED////// SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2017 TAGS: PREL PK AF IN SUBJECT: SCENESETTER: CHAIRMAN JCS GENERAL PACE MEETING WITH PAKISTAN JCS GENERAL EHSAN UL HAQ ISLAMABAD 00002316 001.2 OF 004 Classified by Charge d'Affaires Peter Bodde, reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C//NF) Embassy Islamabad welcomes your meeting with Chief of Joint Staff General Ehsan Ul Haq of the Pakistan Army. Your meeting comes at an important time in U.S.-Pakistan relations: Politicians, opinion makers, and the press are paying close attention to what Pakistanis view as unfair public criticism of their policies and efforts on the War on Terror. The mid-March suspension of Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry from the Pakistan Supreme Court has challenged President Musharraf's political party, and an April 30 meeting in Ankara between Musharraf and Afghan President Hamid Karzai, although it enhanced ties between the two countries' governments, failed to resolve essential disagreements between the leaders. On May 12, violent clashes between political parties in Karachi left over 40 people dead and hundreds wounded. ¶2. (C//NF) The current government in Islamabad is facing challenges, but these challenges are neither new to Pakistan's leadership nor insurmountable. Your meeting with General Ul Haq is an opportunity to reassure a key ally that the U.S. remains committed to our alliance. While General Ul Haq is expecting a frank exchange with you in private about the War on Terror, the FATA, the Taliban, and al-Qa'ida, the Government of Pakistan even more than usual needs the meeting to highlight a public posture that encourages Pakistani honor and pride. Public statements that emphasize our appreciation for Pakistan's significant assistance and sacrifices to the war on terror - and our interest in sustaining a broad-based strategic partnership with Pakistan will help assuage the fears of Pakistanis who are increasingly worried that we intend to down-shift our relationship with Pakistan. U.S./Pak Relations -------------- ¶3. (C//NF) The U.S. has developed a close partnership with the Government of Pakistan (GOP) since 9/11. We provide financial and technical support on many fronts: counterterrorism; military assistance and training; earthquake relief and reconstruction; economic development; social and educational capacity building; the largest Fulbright senior scholar exchange program in the world; law enforcement training; judicial reform; counter-narcotics assistance; intelligence sharing; and support to strengthen electoral institutions and political party workers in preparation for upcoming Parliamentary elections. ¶4. (C//NF) President Musharraf and the Government of Pakistan have shown considerable courage in aligning their country with the U.S. and in advancing a platform of enlightened moderation. Musharraf often is cast as a puppet of the West when he attempts to crack down on militants or introduce progressive legislation, such as the Women's Protection Bill. In our public diplomacy efforts, we are careful to thank Musharraf for his leadership and the people of Pakistan for their friendship while not encouraging the perception that the President is pursuing his agenda only to keep the West happy. ¶5. (C//NF) Pakistani politicians and the press continue to express concern that House Resolution 1 (which aims to implement 9/11 Commission recommendations) will negatively impact the U.S.-Pakistan relationship. Pakistanis view proposed certification requirements on Pakistan's commitment to the War on Terror and democracy as successors to the Pressler Amendment and herald the proposed legislation as proof that the U.S. has near-term plans to end its financial and technical support to Pakistan. Domestic Issues -------------- ISLAMABAD 00002316 002.2 OF 004 Classified by Chrage d'Affaires Peter Bodde, reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶6. (C) Democracy: President Musharraf has committed publicly and privately to moving Pakistan toward a civilian-led government. He has also committed to holding general elections on time, which, according to Pakistan's Constitution, must be before January 15, 2008. Musharraf seems to understand the imperative of holding credible elections. The U.S. Embassy has set an ambitious agenda of working with the Government to organize a credible and transparent election. We are assisting the Election Commission of Pakistan to ensure that all Pakistani citizens who are eligible to vote are included on the country's new computerized voter rolls. The U.S. is also strengthening parties across Pakistan's political spectrum by offering technical assistance focused on organizing issue-based campaigns, increasing party membership, and engaging the Election Commission of Pakistan on rules and laws that affect elections. ¶7. (S//NF) Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA): Over the past year, Pakistan has been implementing a new, multi-faceted strategy in the tribal areas, focused on strengthening the government's writ; tamping down on the spread of talibanization; increasing development assistance; and engaging in military strikes on militant compounds based on intelligence provided by the U.S. and Coalition forces. Effective development and enhanced security in FATA are essential to rendering the area inhospitable to terrorism and extremism, and the U.S. has an important role to play on both fronts. To support the GOP's comprehensive approach to the FATA, the State Department has asked Congress for $750 million over five years to support development activities in FATA, and $72 million in FY07 to enhance the capacity of Pakistan's Frontier Corps. ¶8. (S//NF) FATA continued: As part of its overall strategy, the GOP entered into an agreement with tribal elders in North Waziristan in September 2006. The Government believes that the agreement will halt the talibanization of the area and decrease attacks originating from Pakistan against Coalition forces in Afghanistan. Musharraf recognizes that the agreement has not met all of its goals. His government is pushing local tribes to "keep up their side of the bargain," but he reserves the right to take military action if necessary. ¶9. (C//NF) FATA continued: Pakistan's January 16 strike on a militant training base in Zamzola, South Waziristan, precipitated an ongoing series of deadly retaliatory attacks - over 20 to date - throughout the country. They have resulted in the death of several high-ranking police officers, as well as scores of civilians and military personnel. On April 28, a suicide bomber attempted to assassinate Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao near Peshawar; 28 people died and 40 were wounded. The GOP's resolve to fight the militants in this region has not abated, but the casualties from these attacks, along with the approximately 800 War on Terror-related deaths of Pakistani military and paramilitary personnel, fuels public questioning of Pakistan's GWOT participation. ¶10. (C) Domestic Politics: President Musharraf uses the term "enlightened moderation" to describe his policies that discourage the radicalization of Islam and promote the empowerment of women. Musharraf is the first leader of Pakistan since the 1950s to say "no" to Pakistan's radical Islamists. The Women's Protection Bill, signed in December 2006, was the first-ever rollback of Zia-ul Haq's Islamization measures of the 1970's. Musharraf has also re-energized the Council of Islamic Ideology, a nationally respected and forward-looking body of Islamic scholars. The Neighborhood ISLAMABAD 00002316 003.2 OF 004 Classified by Charge d'Affaires Peter Bodde, reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶11. (S) Afghanistan: The relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan continues to suffer from mutual suspicion and recrimination, with Afghanistan concerned about cross-border infiltration and Pakistan worried by the prospect of India using its diplomatic assets in Afghanistan to foment instability in Balochistan. Both capitals engage in bouts of unhelpful public rhetoric, each blaming the other for the presence of militants in the border region, and for not doing enough to prosecute the battle against their common enemies. ¶12. (C//NF) Afghanistan (cont): Since Presidents Musharraf and Karzai met over dinner with President Bush in September 2006, relations between the two countries have remained chilly. A late April 2007 meeting between Musharraf, Karzai, and Turkish President Sezer in Ankara failed to resolve essential disagreements between the two leaders. Tensions between the two Presidents are sometimes mirrored by troops on the border, as can be seen by recent firing incidents. Meanwhile, in an attempt to encourage some of Pakistan's 2.6 million remaining Afghan refugees to return home, Pakistan has announced its intention to close four refugee camps in ¶2007. Refugees who do not repatriate will be resettled in other camps in Pakistan. ¶13. (S//NF) India: Relations between India and Pakistan have rarely been better, but problems remain. In February 2004, President Musharraf and then-Indian-Prime Minister Vajpayee started the "Composite Dialogue" peace process, which has significantly reduced tensions between the two countries. The fourth round of the Composite Dialogue began in March 2007 with talks on core disputes as well as cooperation in trade, agriculture, education, and other areas. The dialogue has produced Confidence-Building Measures, such as a Nuclear Risk Reduction Treaty, bus-lines across the Line of Control between Pakistani and Indian Kashmir, and people-to-people cultural exchanges. Although the core Kashmir, Siachen, and Sir Creek disputes remain unresolved, senior officials from the countries meet and speak with one another on these and other important strategic matters regularly. Pakistan has appreciated President Bush's even-handed statements about the need for good relations between India and Pakistan and for a peaceful resolution of the dispute on terms acceptable to Pakistan, India, and the people of Kashmir. ¶14. (C) The Middle East: In January, President Musharraf renewed his two-year old effort to be a leader of the moderate Muslim world with trips to nine Islamic capitals in four weeks. Musharraf is pushing the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, Indonesia, Iran, and Turkey to unite around a "new forceful initiative" to work on issues of concern, including Israel/Palestine, Iraq, and Lebanon. ¶15. (C) Iran: Pakistan has a long and complicated relationship with its neighbor Iran. Government of Pakistan officials often allude to Pakistan's vulnerability to Iranian troublemaking, citing the influence of Tehran on Pakistan's sizable Shi'a community, approximately 20 percent of the population. Privately, Prime Minister Aziz and Foreign Minister Kasuri recognize that Iran's nuclear program has the potential to destabilize the region, including Pakistan. Both have urged their Iranian counterparts to take the EU-3 and U.S. proposals seriously and begin negotiations forthwith. Publicly, the Government of Pakistan has called for all parties to abide by their international obligations and to pursue a negotiated resolution. On February 5, President Musharraf met with Iranian President Ahmedinejad in Tehran. They discussed security in the Gulf and Afghanistan as well as implementation of a multi-billion dollar gas pipeline that would transit Iran, Pakistan, and India. Musharraf used his ISLAMABAD 00002316 004.2 OF 004 Classified by Charge d'Affaires Peter Bodde, reason 1.4 (b),(d) trip to Iran to deliver tough points on Iran's unhelpful interference in the internal affairs of Lebanon, Iraq, and Afghanistan and the need to tamp down Sunni-Shi'a tensions. 16.(C) China: Chinese interaction with Pakistan generally sticks to the bottom line of business, eschewing discussion of democracy, human rights, or Islamic extremism. China is well regarded by the Pakistan public for its high-profile investments in Pakistan's infrastructure (the Karakoram Highway and the development of port facilities in Gwadar and energy resources in Balochistan,),and for its economic prowess. Chinese military sales - unencumbered by the Congressional notifications and rigorous releasability reviews that characterize U.S. defense sales - are often sweetened by attractive financing arrangements. Even so, Pakistani military officials candidly admit that they get what they pay for with Chinese arms and equipment and that they prefer to buy American. The first Pak-China joint military exercise in Pakistan - "Friendship 2006" - occurred in early December 2006, shortly after the successful state visit of Chinese President Hu to Pakistan. BODDE