AS PROTESTS OVER CHIEF JUSTICE CONTROVERSY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 001267 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2017 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PHUM PK PREL SUBJECT: AS PROTESTS OVER CHIEF JUSTICE CONTROVERSY CONTINUE, GOVERNMENT SOFTENS APPROACH REF: ISLAMABAD 1234 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador Ryan Crocker, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Protests over the proceedings against Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry continued over the weekend, drawing an estimated crowd of 10,000 - 12,000 in Lahore on Saturday. The protests continue to be minimally violent by Pakistani standards. The Chief Justice controversy continues to dominate headlines and conversations, and a nationwide "wheeljam strike" is planned for March 21, the next scheduled day for the Supreme Judicial Council's hearing against Chaudhry. President Musharraf called an emergency meeting of senior government officials late March 18 and reportedly chastised them for not providing sufficient public support. At the meeting, he outlined his strategy to deal with the crisis. Musharraf confirmed that Justice Rana Bhagwandas -- the second most senior judge on the Supreme Court -- will assume the role of Acting Chief Justice upon his return from abroad March 23. Throughout the crisis, the Pakistan People's Party has remained low-key. The silence has been partly to allow lawyers' associations to take the lead, but the People's Party is preparing to assume a more public role. Both the Minister of Interior and the Pakistan Muslim League Secretary General acknowledged to Ambassador that holding police accountable for the raid on Geo T.V. will be important. Thus far, the U.S. Government's low-key approach to the controversy has been appropriate, as Pakistan's civil society has risen to the perceived challenge to a free press and judiciary, leaving the U.S. out of the headlines. End Summary. -------------- Protests Continue -------------- ¶2. (U) Protests continued over the weekend and into the week in Lahore, Karachi, and Peshawar. On March 17, demonstrations in Lahore drew 10,000 - 12,000 people. At one point, lawyers began to throw stones and other items at police, who responded in kind and ultimately resorted to baton charges, tear gas, and arrests to subdue the crowd. Sporadic demonstrations continued throughout Lahore on March 19, but no roadblocks or other disruptions were reported. Overall, the protests have been minimally violent by Pakistan standards, especially compared to last year's demonstrations over the Danish cartoons. 
¶3. (U) Protests in Karachi and Peshawar continued throughout the weekend as well, but have been more subdued. A Karachi Bar Association demonstration planned for March 19 was postponed to March 20 due to rain. In the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP),lawyers continued to protest on March 17 and March 19 with symbolic one hour strikes at courts in Peshawar and other key cities in the province. (Comment: With the NWFP's MMA government having received a fair degree of criticism in recent months over the deteriorating law and order situation, Peshawar observers expect that the NWFP's provincial government to work hard to maintain a peaceful atmosphere at demonstrations over the Chief Justice's removal. End Comment.) ¶4. (SBU) A nationwide "wheeljam protest" (in which no traffic is allowed to transit major city routes and commercial activities cease) has been announced for March 21, the next scheduled day for the Supreme Judicial Council's hearing ISLAMABAD 00001267 002 OF 003 against Chaudhry. Political party representatives tell us that police are arresting party organizers in the lead up to the protests, which are scheduled for all cities. Pakistan People's Party officials are expecting routes into Islamabad to be blocked ahead of the March 21 demonstration, and are telling their members not already in Islamabad to remain (and demonstrate) where they are and not to bother coming to the capital city. -------------- President Musharraf Calls Emergency Meeting -------------- ¶5. (C) On March 18, President Musharraf called together senior government officials and coalition partners for a hastily-arranged meeting. Press reports and outside observers reported that Musharraf was unhappy that senior government officials had not sufficiently supported him in public, and directed them to fight the opposition's efforts to recast the proceedings against Justice Chaudhry as a crisis. We have already seen government officials carrying out their marching orders to enhance public outreach. Late on March 19, the Foreign Secretary convened Ambassador to hear the Government's side of the story, which we will report septel. ¶6. (C) Pakistan Muslim League Secretary General Senator Mushahid Hussain, who attended the meeting, told us that Musharraf outlined his strategy to deal with the crisis. Musharraf confirmed that the ban against the Geo television program "Aaj Kamran Khan Kay Saath" ("Today With Kamran Khan") will be lifted and that Musharraf will appear on Khan's March 19 show. Musharraf also said that Justice Rana Bhagwandas -- the second most senior judge on the Supreme Court -- will assume the role of Acting Chief Justice and, if he wishes, the head of the Supreme Judicial Council on his March 23 return from India. Although this will slow down the process, Mushahid said, it is important to ensure the credibility of the process and not allow it to become politicized. -------------- Pakistan People's Party Supports Protests, But Public Profile is Low -------------- ¶7. (C) Notable in its absence, the Pakistan People's Party has maintained a low public profile since the beginning of the protests. Central Information Secretary Sherry Rehman told POLOFF that this has been partly deliberate, since lawyers' associations (many of whose members also belong to the party) have asked that they be allowed to take the lead in the fight against the government. (Note: Party officials estimate that 80-100 Peoples Party members are currently behind bars, but those are mostly lawyers who were demonstrating as law association members. By contrast, Pakistan Muslim League - Nawaz (PML-N) officials estimate that they have approximately 57 people behind bars as a result of the protests. End Note.) Even though the lawyers asked to take the lead, they will soon tire, according to Rehman. The People's Party is ramping up to fill the gap. PPP leaders have cleared their calendars for Thursday, Rehman said, because they assume they will be arrested during protests planned for March 21. ¶8. (C) The People's Party is wary of allowing the protests to play to the advantage of the religious parties, Rehman said, ISLAMABAD 00001267 003 OF 003 so while there has been contact with the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal religious alliance, coordination has been minimal. Public speculation that the People's Party's silence over the judicial crisis is a signal of an electoral deal with the Musharraf government is wrong, Rehman added. The deal is off, as of now. If Benazir Bhutto were to make any arrangement with Musharraf at this point, she said, workers would leave the party. -------------- -------------- Government Officials Tell Ambassador Accountability Important -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) On March 19, Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao told the Ambassador that the police raid on Geo television station was a result of mass confusion after a student radical group started throwing rocks at police from inside the Geo building. When the police stormed the building in response, one of the protesters grabbed a police officer, and then the situation got out of control. Nevertheless, he agreed that accountability for the incident was important. Pakistan Muslim League Secretary General Senator Mushahid Hussain told the Ambassador that he knows the whole Chief Justice situation looks bad, and it is a result of bad advice given to President Musharraf by the Law Minister and the Attorney General. Mushahid agreed with the Ambassador that the Law Minister should be sacked and suggested that Islamabad's Deputy Inspector General of Police should probably be fired as well. Mushahid closed by saying that the government will now have to bend over backwards to prove that there is no judicial crisis and that justice will be done. -------------- Government Hears Public Outcry -------------- ¶11. (C) Comment: The Chief Justice controversy has shown that elements of Pakistan's civil society are willing to step up to the plate when they see a perceived threat to their constitutional freedoms. Punishment is likely for higher-level police officials who directed the raid against Geo television station, and there likely will be more government affirmations of respect for press freedom. Most importantly, it appears that the Government of Pakistan is anxious to place responsibility for resolving the Chief Justice's suspension into the lap of the Supreme Judicial Council. ¶12. (C) Comment, cont. The Government appears to be reacting in a measured way to counteract public outcry, but no one is predicting a prompt resolution of the crisis. Without the distraction of the Cricket World Cup (Pakistan lost to Ireland March 18 -- a huge blow to national pride) the media will continue to focus on the Chief Justice controversy. End Comment. CROCKER