COALITION-BUILDING FOR IRANIAN ELECTIONS: PART ONE-

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000071 SIPDIS SIPDIS LONDON FOR GAYLE; BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD ISTANBUL FOR ODLUM; BAKU FOR HAUGEN PARIS FOR WALLER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2017 TAGS: IR PGOV SUBJECT: COALITION-BUILDING FOR IRANIAN ELECTIONS: PART ONE- REFORMISTS AND CENTRISTS RPO DUBAI 00000071 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: Ramin Asgard, Acting Director, Iran Regional Presence Office, DoS. REASON: 1.4 (d) 1.(C) Summary: Although campaigning for the March 14, 2008 Majles elections is not officially allowed until two weeks prior to the elections, Iran is already very much in election mode. Both reformists and conservatives are attempting to create broad electoral coalitions. Reformist parties have urged former President Khatami to run; while he has called on reformist groups to unite, he has consistently declined to run himself. Nonetheless, Khatami still appears to be the leading figure around whom reformists are rallying. Reformists appear opposed to any electoral boycott; one reformist privately expressed concern that the reformist cause could be undermined if the USG encourages a boycott. The lynchpin issue for the 2008 Majles elections will clearly be the economy; both conservatives and reformists are criticizing the Ahmadinejad government's economic performance. While the international crisis over the nuclear issue will likely play into votes, the upcoming elections promise to be even more about the price of bread than the last one. A look at the conservatives' approach to the elections will be reported septel. End summary. Reformists try to build coalition -------------- 2.(C) Campaigning for Majles elections is not officially permitted until two weeks prior to the elections, which are scheduled for March 14, 2008. Nonetheless, Iran is already very much in election mode. With four months left, reformists appear to have been somewhat more successful to date than conservatives at building an electoral coalition. Former Majles speaker Mehdi Karrubi has, however, thus far kept his National Trust Party out of the larger reformist coalition, a tactic some groups charge may damage reformists in the elections. Karrubi has long viewed himself as a distinct from the main body of reformists, leading him to set up his own party. Despite the National Trust Party keeping its own electoral list, Karrubi has maintained publicly that "90% of those in our list are coordinated with the reformists." 3.(C) Several reformist parties, including the National Trust Party, have publicly urged former President Khatami to run for a Majles seat, but he has consistently declined. He has nonetheless urged reformist groups to consolidate their efforts for the elections. An official of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF) said in an interview on a reformist news site that if Khatami does not run for the Majles, they will urge him to run again for the presidency in 2009. Khatami reportedly plans to make a series of provincial visits, which some observers are reading as possible campaign stops. Whether or not he runs, it is noteworthy that despite being criticized while in office as ineffectual, Khatami appears to be the leading figure around whom reformists are rallying. According to contacts, other possible reformist presidential candidates are former vice president Hamid Reza Aref and former science minister Mostafa Moin. Reformist strategy is to run big names and encourage voting -------------- -------------- 4.(S) A reformist MP asserted that if there were free and fair elections, the Majles would be split 70-30 between reformists and conservatives. He said the goal of the reformists for the 2008 elections is to win 50% of the seats, although a minimum of 100 of the 290 seats would still be considered good. The MP claimed that the electoral strategy of the conservatives is to encourage internal divisions among reformists and added that conservatives are relying on the Guardian Council to disqualify scores of reformist candidates. 5.(S) A Dubai-based businessman who claims to be involved in reformist politics, said that reformists are putting forward prominent, well-known former government and parliamentary officials in order to make it more difficult for the Guardian RPO DUBAI 00000071 002.2 OF 003 Council to block their candidacies. He said this is the opposite of the reformist strategy in the December 2006 municipal elections, when reformists put forward no-name candidates in hopes that their anonymity would give the Guardian Council no grounds on which to bar them from running. The businessman predicted that the current strategy would be more successful, as Iranians tend to favor well-known quantities. 6.(U) The centrists appear to be adopting a similar strategy, although it is not yet clear whether they will join the reformist coalition electoral list or remain separate. The electoral list of the centrist Rafsanjani-affiliated Executives of Construction party includes prominent figures such as former nuclear negotiator Hassan Rowhani, former Iranian ambassador to France Sadegh Kharrazi, and Rafsanjani's brother Mohammad Hashemi, among others. Political scientist Farideh Farhi posited in a November editorial that this "powerful" electoral list is intended to make it difficult for the Guardian Council to disqualify its candidates since many are former government officials and key policymakers. 7.(S) The reformist MP told IRPOff that another part of the reformist strategy is to encourage voter participation, as conservatives would benefit if the "silent majority" does not vote. The MP implied that he did not favor a boycott, even if the conservative Guardian Council disqualifies many reformist candidates. The MP claimed, however, that Karrubi has threatened to boycott the elections if there are massive disqualifications. (Note: There has been no indication in the press that Karrubi intends to urge an election boycott if there are massive disqualifications. In a March 2007 interview, Karrubi characterized a previous boycott as being responsible for reformist electoral defeat. End note.) Concern over possibility of US call for boycott -------------- -- 8.(S) The Dubai-based businessman was weighing the risks of returning to Iran to help organize the reformist electoral campaign in a province outside Tehran. He expressed to IRPOffs his concerns that the reformist cause could be undermined if the USG encouraged an election boycott using Farsi-language VOA and Radio Farda broadcasts, as he felt the US had in the 2005 Iranian presidential elections. Commentary on elections/electoral strategies -------------- 9.(U) Iranian political scientist Sadeq Zibakalam predicted in a domestic newspaper interview that excessive disqualifications of candidates by the Guardian Council could lead to decreased voter participation. He commented, "The principle-ists [i.e. conservatives] are like tight-rope walkers who are treading on a very thin rope. If they make extensive use of expedient supervision, they risk losing public participation; if they don't, their opponents will take the Majles. I predict that they will disqualify prominent reformist personalities and allow minor ones to run, hoping that they lack name recognition." It's the economy, stupid -------------- 10.(C) The key issue in the March Majles elections, and likely also in the 2009 presidential elections, will be the domestic economy. Both conservatives and reformists are criticizing the Ahmadinejad government's economic policies, a somewhat distinct issue from the economic pressures from nuclear-related sanctions. Conservative deputy Majles speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar said that the most important challenge faced by principle-ists is controlling inflation. The secretary general of the reformist IIPF, Mohsen Mirdamadi, strongly criticized the RPO DUBAI 00000071 003.2 OF 003 Ahmadinejad government's economic performance, saying, "What our people currently see through heavy propaganda launched by official and unofficial media about unrivalled achievements of the country in all fields is excessive prices, unbridled inflation, reducing economic growth, declining standards of living and loss of hope in future." 11.(S) Background: Asked about the procedure for candidacy, the reformist MP said a potential candidate must have approval from four parts of the government: the ministry of intelligence; the judiciary (ensuring that there are no corruption charges against the candidate); the education ministry (candidates must have a university degree to be eligible); and the law enforcement forces (verifying that the candidate has no criminal record). The MP also said that the government does not fund or subsidize campaigns in any way, but did not elaborate on sources of campaign funds. 12.(C) Comment: The upcoming elections in Iran promise to be even more about the price of bread than the last election. Although some reformists have criticized the government's nuclear policies in their speeches, the nuclear issue is not the driving issue in these elections. If reformist groups manage to create a united electoral strategy, and appeal effectively to public dissatisfaction over the economy, they may stand a good chance of increasing their numbers in the Majles. While predictions about results are still premature, the idea that reformists may regain the Majles is perhaps overly ambitious. Although early indications of coordinated cooperation on the elections between Karrubi, Khatami, and Rafsanjani, have reportedly eroded due to personal differences between Karrubi and Rafsanjani, the three do not appear to be working at cross-purposes. ASGARD