CONFLICTING CLAIMS WHETHER MOUSAVIAN WILL BE RELEASED

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000031 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS LONDON FOR GAYLE; PARIS FOR WALLER; BAKU FOR HAUGEN; BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/9/2027 TAGS: PREL PGOV IR KNNP SUBJECT: CONFLICTING CLAIMS WHETHER MOUSAVIAN WILL BE RELEASED RPO DUBAI 00000031 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian L. Burns, Director, Iran Regional Presence Office, Dubai, UAE. REASON: 1.4 (d) 1.(S/NF) Summary: An Iranian close to conservative circles believes former nuclear negotiator Mousavian is innocent of espionage charges but unlikely to be released soon. Another source close to Rafsanjani thinks he will be released within days. The first source believes Ahmadi-Nejad ordered Mousavian's arrest as an indirect hit against Rafsanjani and the think tank linked to the Expediency Council. The source claims to have tried to find out information about Mousavian from the head of Evin Prison but was told Mousavian was being held in the section controlled by the Ministry of Intelligence. End summary Arrest of Mousavian -------------- 2.(S/NF) A doctor reportedly close to Iranian conservative circles told IRPO Director May 7 that he believes that former nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian is innocent of the charges of espionage, but he doubts Mousavian will be released soon. In contrast, a source close to Rafsanjani -- who also believed that Mousavian was innocent -- said May 7 that he thought Mousavian would be released in a few days. (Note: There are unconfirmed reports May 9 that Mousavian will be released on bail. End note) Scapegoat? -------------- 3.(S/NF) The doctor believes Ahmadi-Nejad ordered Mousavian's arrest to target Rafsanjani and the Center for Strategic Research. Because the president cannot go directly after Expediency Council head Rafsanjani, he goes after Mousavian, who is a close associate, reasoned the doctor. The source claimed that the arrest was also designed to discredit the think tank affiliated with the Expediency Council, Center for Strategic Research, where Mousavian is the deputy head. The center is headed by former Supreme National Security Council secretary Hojatoleslam Hassan Rowhani. 4.(S/NF) The doctor said the arrest was then initiated by the Ministry of Intelligence. He claimed the Minister Ejei is actually "with" Rafsanjani, but because he is in Ahmadi-Nejad's cabinet, he cannot ignore the president's orders. 5.(S/NF) The doctor claimed the "facts" of the case do not add up. The authorities claim they have been monitoring Mousavian for 2-3 years. If this is true, he said, it does not reflect well on Iranian intelligence since Mousavian has been allowed to travel frequently outside the country. He also claimed in true cases of espionage, the government hides the charges. So far Mousavian has been accused of spying for the UK and Switzerland, said the doctor. He assumes, however, that the government will later point the finger at the US, particularly given the relationship between the US and the Swiss, its protecting power in Iran. Chilling effect -------------- 6.(S/NF) When asked if anyone were lobbying inside Iran on Mousavian's behalf, the doctor said he doubts anyone will speak up for him out of fear of being tainted. The doctor said "everyone" in Iran is really frightened as a result of the arrest of Mousavian, the highest level Iranian official to be arrested on such serious charges in some time. (Note: Al-Alam TV reported May 8 that Minister Ejei said two other people were summoned on the same charge as Mousavian and are under investigation. End note) The source said only MP Boroujerdi has raised his case publicly but without coming to his defense. (Note: According to Fars News May 6, Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, chaired by Alaoddin Boroujerdi, summoned Intelligence Minister Ejei to brief on Mousavian's detention. HYPERLINK "http://opensource.dni.sgov.gov/cgi-bin/cqcgi/ @rware.env?CQ _CUR_DOCUMENT=1&CQ_USER_NAME=Mos2Bookmark&CQ_ PASSWORD=Document&CQ _LOGIN=Yes&CQ_DO_QUERY=Yes&CQ_CUR_LIBRARY=ALL &CQ_QUERY_STRING.DOC UMENT_ID=IAP20070506950034&CQ_MOS2_DO_QUERY_B OOKMARK_ARTICLE=Yes& TrackDocID=IAP20070506950034" \\l "HIT0006#HIT0006" Boroujerdi said he would inform the press about the case as soon as he receives the needed details. Endnote) RPO DUBAI 00000031 002.2 OF 002 Prison within a prison -------------- 7.(S/NF) According to the doctor, Mousavian flew back to Tehran, left the airport with no problem, drove back to his house, and there about 15 officials arrived to take him away, blindfolded. The doctor said Mousavian is being held at in the section of Evin prison run by the Ministry of Intelligence. He claimed Mousavian's wife called him for help because he is friends with the head of Evin. The source said when he tried to find out any information, the prison's central office told him they do not even have access to Mousavian. The doctor assumed he is being tortured. 8.(S/NF) Comment: We have not heard before the assertion that Ahmadi-Nejad may have ordered Mousavian's arrest to target the Center for Strategic Research, rather than just Rafsanjani himself. If true, it raises the question of whether Rowhani will also be accused. The second source cited who is close to Rafsanjani was very concerned about Mousavian's arrest but did not comment further on the case, other than predicting his release. BURNS