NPC STANDING COMMITTEE AUTHORIZES HONG KONG TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 003103 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2032 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PHUM CH HK SUBJECT: NPC STANDING COMMITTEE AUTHORIZES HONG KONG TO ELECT CHIEF EXECUTIVE IN 2017, LEGCO LATER REF: A. HONG KONG 03008 ¶B. HONG KONG 03033 ¶C. HONG KONG 03070 Classified By: Acting E/P Section Chief Jeff Zaiser; Reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary and Comment: On December 29, Commissioner Lu Xinhua of the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Hong Kong briefed the Consul General, the U.K. Consul General, and a representative from the Office of the European Commission on the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) decision reached earlier that day regarding future implementation of universal suffrage in Hong Kong. Reading from a prepared text, Lu said the NPCSC had decided that in 2012 neither the Chief Executive (CE) nor the full Legislative Council (Legco) shall be selected by universal suffrage, and the half-and-half ratio between functional constituency and geographic constituency members in Legco shall remain unchanged, although other "appropriate amendments" could be made to the election procedures for that year. For 2017, the selection of the CE "may be implemented by the method of universal suffrage," while election of the entire Legco by universal suffrage would follow at an unspecified later time. (Note: The next Legco election after 2017 will be 2020). Any future amendments to the Hong Kong Basic Law regarding election of the CE and Legco must obtain consent of the Hong Kong CE, approval by two-thirds of Legco, and then be submitted for approval (CE) or for the record (Legco ) to the NPCSC. If the methods for selecting the CE and electing the Legco are not amended, then the existing methods shall continue to apply. To select the CE by universal suffrage, a "broadly representative nominating committee" would "follow democratic procedures and nominate a certain number of candidates" for CE, who then would be elected through universal suffrage by all registered electors of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). ¶2. (C) After reading the prepared text, Lu noted the importance and sensitivity of Hong Kong's "constitutional development" in accordance with the principle of "One Country, Two Systems" and the Basic Law. He said the NPCSC decision constitutes a "major step taken to advance democracy" and "attain the ultimate goal of universal suffrage" for the Hong Kong people, who "now enjoy democratic rights that they never had before." Lu concluded that this was a sensitive issue and he hoped the consular representatives would "be discreet so as not to send any wrong message, or adversely affect our bilateral relations as well as stability and constitutional development of Hong Kong." Following Lu's presentation, the Consul General thanked him for the timely and detailed briefing, and said we would study the decision further before issuing any comment. Shortly after the briefing, local media carried remarks by CE Tsang that a "timetable for universal suffrage now has been SIPDIS set," with selection of the CE in 2017 and Legco in 2020 through universal suffrage. Tsang said he had instructed the Commission on Strategic Development (CSD) to prepare options for 2012 and beyond, which the Hong Kong Government (HKG) would present to the public by the fourth quarter of 2008. End Summary. ¶3. (C) Comment: Tsang's claim to have a timetable for democratization may be premature, as the NPCSC decision does not appear to set a date for implementation of universal suffrage for the entire Legco. While all concerned parties will need some time to study the decision, at first glance it appears to offer a possibility for compromise on the way forward. Whether the pan-democrats can accept somewhat less than they wanted remains to be seen, as many of them are certain to be disappointed that universal suffrage for 2012 has been ruled out, as has alteration of the current ratio of functional to geographic Legco seats. It also is noteworthy that CE Tsang expects the HKG to issue its proposals for reform in 2012 at the end of 2008, after the September Legco election. If the pan-democrats lose more than six of the 26 seats they currently hold, then they no longer will enjoy the one-third blocking minority that halted CE Tsang's previous reform effort in 2005. We should get an early indication of the democrats' response to the NPCSC decision, as they have scheduled a demonstration at Legco followed by a march to Government House on Saturday afternoon, followed by a "candle-light sit-in" outside Government House in the evening. At 8:15 PM local time, NPC Standing Committee Deputy Secretary General Qiao Xiaoyang is scheduled to meet and brief all Legco members at Government House. End Comment. ¶4. (C) On December 29, Commissioner Lu Xinhua of the PRC HONG KONG 00003103 002 OF 003 Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Hong Kong called in the Consul General, the U.K. Consul General, and a representative from the Office of the European Commission for a briefing on the decision by the NPCSC regarding the method for selection of the Hong Kong Chief Executive and Legco. (Note: According to Embassy Beijing, simultaneously a similar briefing was convened by the MOFA in Beijing.) Lu said the NPCSC had adopted the decision earlier that morning. The NPCSC was responding to a December 12 request for a determination from Hong Kong CE Donald Tsang (ref a). ¶5. (C) Reading from a prepared statement (text has been transmitted via email to EAP/CM),Lu said the NPCSC had issued a four-point decision. First, in 2012, the CE shall not be selected by universal suffrage, and the election of Legco "shall not be implemented by the method of electing all the members by universal suffrage." Furthermore, the half-and-half ratio between functional constituency and geographic constituency members in Legco shall remain unchanged, as will the procedures for voting on bills and motions in Legco. Subject to these restrictions, "appropriate amendments conforming to the principle of gradual and orderly progress may be made" to the methods for selecting the CE and Legco in 2012. ¶6. (C) Second, Lu said that prior to the future selection of the CE by universal suffrage, the CE must report to the NPCSC regarding amendment of the method for selecting the CE, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Hong Kong Basic Law and the previous NPCSC interpretation of the Basic Law. The NPCSC then would issue a determination. The HKG would prepare and submit bills to amend the CE selection method to Legco for approval by at least two-thirds of its members, which with the "consent" of the CE would then be reported to the NPCSC for approval. Third, the CE also must report to the NPCSC regarding amendment of the methods for forming Legco and for Legco voting on bills and motions, again in accordance with the Basic Law and the previous NPCSC interpretation. The NPCSC then would issue another determination. The HKG would introduce bills to amend the election method and the Legco procedures, which would require approval by two-thirds of Legco members and the consent of the CE before being reported to the NPCSC "for the record." Fourth, if the methods for selecting the CE, electing the Legco, or Legco procedures are not amended, then the existing methods would continue to apply. Finally, the NPCSC also said that to select the CE by universal suffrage, a "broadly representative nominating committee shall be formed" and it "shall follow democratic procedures and nominate a certain number of candidates for the office of the CE, who is to be elected through universal suffrage by all registered electors of the HKSAR, and to be appointed by the Central People's Government." ¶7. (C) After reading the prepared text, Lu added the following three points. First, the "constitutional development" of Hong Kong was an "important issue that should be handled with great care." The NPCSC decision conforms to the principle of "One Country, Two Systems" and the Basic Law, takes full account of the actual situation in Hong Kong and the interests of various sectors in Hong Kong, and "gives expression to the principle of gradual and orderly progress." It constitutes a "major step taken to advance democracy" and "attain the ultimate goal of universal suffrage." Second, it is the "consistent position and firm objective of the Chinese Government to support the HKSAR in developing a democratic system suitable to local conditions, in a gradual and orderly manner and in accordance with the Basic Law." Furthermore, the Hong Kong people "now enjoy democratic rights that they never had before." Third, "ensuring the long-term prosperity and stability of Hong Kong serves the interests of both China and foreign investors in Hong Kong. We recognize that (the U.S., U.K. and E.U.) have business and investment interests in Hong Kong, and it is in the spirit of friendship that I have given you this briefing." Finally, Lu noted that this was a "sensitive issue" and he hoped that the consular representatives would "be discreet so as not to send any wrong message, or adversely affect our bilateral relations as well as stability and constitutional development of Hong Kong." ¶8. (C) Following Lu's presentation, the U.S. and British Consuls General both expressed appreciation for the detailed briefing, which they said they would study further before issuing any comment. The Consul General also thanked Lu for taking the initiative to brief us in such a timely manner. HONG KONG 00003103 003 OF 003 ¶9. (SBU) Shortly after the briefing, local media carried remarks by CE Tsang that a "timetable for universal suffrage now has been set." He said that under the NPCSC decision, Hong Kong would select the CE in 2017 and Legco in 2020 through universal suffrage. Tsang urged the Hong Kong people to apply "fresh thinking" to secure implementation of universal suffrage for the CE first, in 2017, to be followed by Legco in 2020. Tsang spoke highly of the NPCSC decision, which he characterized as "the most important step for Hong Kong's constitutional development." He said he had instructed the HKG's Commission on Strategic Development (CSD) to form a "task group" as soon as possible to study the relevant issues, including possible changes to the election methods for the CE and Legco in 2012. The task group would meet shortly after lunar new year (February) and complete its work by mid-2008. By the fourth quarter of 2008, Tsang said the HKG would "formulate options" for 2012 and then consult with the public. Cunningham