HONG KONG VOTERS ELECT PRO-DEMOCRACY LEGISLATOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L HONG KONG 002949

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP AND EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2032
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI HK CH
SUBJECT: HONG KONG VOTERS ELECT PRO-DEMOCRACY LEGISLATOR

REF: A. HONG KONG 02934

B. HONG KONG 02855

Classified By: Acting E/P Section Chief Jeff Zaiser; Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: Former Hong Kong Government Chief Secretary
and pan-democratic leader Anson Chan won the December 2
Legislative Council (Legco) by-election, defeating her
equally high-profile pro-government opponent Regina Ip by a
55 to 43 percent margin. After the election, Chan said the
poll results indicated the people of Hong Kong were anxious
to push forward to full democracy. Ip has announced that she
will try again for a Legco seat in the September 2008 Legco
general election. The pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for
the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB),which had
strongly backed Ip, already is looking ahead to that
election, in which it hopes to equal or increase its current
holding of eleven Legco seats. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: Chan was carried to victory by the high (52
percent) turnout rate, suggesting that Hong Kong's booming
stock market and healthy economy did not dampen the desire
for democracy among Hong Kong Island's middle and
upper-middle class voters. She also benefited from
continuing concerns about Ip's record while Secretary for
Security in 2003, when her abrasive stewardship of the highly
unpopular and ultimately unsuccessful Article 23 national
security legislation led to her resignation. While the
pan-democrats have survived to fight another day, Chan's
solid victory has not resolved their deeper strategic,
organizational, and financial issues. It is not yet clear
whether Chan, a reluctant candidate this year at age 67, will
run for a full four-year term next year or choose to resume
her retirement. End Comment.

Democrats Get the Vote Out
--------------


3. (SBU) On Sunday, December 2, former Hong Kong Government
Chief Secretary and pan-democratic leader Anson Chan won the
by-election to fill the Hong Kong Island Legco seat left
vacant by the death of DAB Chairman Ma Lik last August. Chan
gained just under 55 percent of the vote, while her main
challenger, former Hong Kong Government Secretary for
Security Regina Ip, received almost 43 percent. The turnout
rate compared favorably to the most recent Legco by-election
seven years ago (33 percent),and also to the 2004 Legco
general election (55.6 percent). In the weeks prior to this
election, the pan-democrats had worried that voter apathy
might cost Chan the election; specifically, they believed a
turnout rate of less than 45 percent would give the election
to Ip (ref a).


4. (C) In her post-election remarks Chan, who had centered
her campaign on the pan-democrats' demand for rapid
implementation of full universal suffrage, opined that the
"road to democracy would continue to widen." She said the
poll results indicated that the people of Hong Kong were
anxious to push forward to full democracy, which would be the
only way to safeguard Hong Kong's freedoms and values, build
a compassionate and fair society, and enhance social justice.
Civic Party Secretary General Joseph Cheng told us that the
election results showed that the "Hong Kong people were
sensible and valued preservation of checks and balances.
They do not want a one-party situation." In that sense,
Cheng believes Chan benefited from the pan-democrats' poor
showing in the November 18 district council elections (ref
b),which were dominated by the DAB.


5. (C) For its part, the DAB already is looking beyond the
by-election to plan for the 2008 Legco general election for
all sixty members, thirty of whom will be elected through
universal suffrage in geographic districts. On December 3,
DAB Chairman Tam Yiu-chung told the Consul General that his
party already was preparing for the "very important" 2008
election, in which it hoped to maintain or increase its
current number of Legco seats (11). Tam said the DAB had
"learned a lot" in the by-election. He believed Ip would run
again, although she would need to find a better way to handle
her Article 23 "baggage." Tam and other DAB leaders admitted
they were somewhat surprised by the intensity of continuing
popular concern about this issue.

Cunningham