HONG KONG DECEMBER 2 BY-ELECTION: VOTER TURNOUT IS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 002934 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP AND EAP/CM NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2032 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM SOCI CH HK SUBJECT: HONG KONG DECEMBER 2 BY-ELECTION: VOTER TURNOUT IS KEY REF: A. HONG KONG 02751 ¶B. HONG KONG 02855 Classified By: E/P Section Chief Laurent Charbonnet; Reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) Summary: On December 2, Hong Kong will hold a by-election to fill the Legislative Council (Legco) seat vacated by the death of Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) leader Ma Lik last August. Only two of the eight contestants - pro-democracy leader Anson Chan and pro-Beijing candidate Regina Ip - have any chance of winning. The campaign is widely viewed as a referendum on the future of democracy in Hong Kong. Chan continues to hold a low double-digit lead in the opinion polls, but her chances of success hinge on a high turnout rate by the pan-democrats. According to one member of her campaign team, a voter participation rate of less than 45 percent would be dangerous for Chan, as the "pro-establishment" parties may be able to mobilize up to 90 percent of their supporters. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Comment: Winning this election is crucial for the pan-democrats, and to do so they need to motivate their supporters to go out and vote. In the November 18 district council election, they suffered an embarrassing rout that exposed their strategic and organizational shortcomings; former Democratic Party (DP) chairman Lee Wing-tat's subsequent resignation as chief campaign strategist apparently was accepted without argument. That election also demonstrated the DAB's superior groundwork and ability to mobilize supporters on election day; it and Ip's other allies certainly will attempt to duplicate that effort on December ¶2. For the Legco by-election, however, the issues of chief concern may play less to the DAB's strength - local bread-and-butter issues - and more to the broader questions of political reform, democratization and relations with Beijing. As those issues form the basis of the pan-democrats' policy platform, both now and for 2008, it will be vital for them to demonstrate that their supporters are both numerous and motivated on election day. For the pro-Beijing parties as well as for Ip personally, winning this time would be nice, but both would accept a reasonably close defeat as a moral victory that would enable them to return undamaged for the Legco general election next September. End Comment. Sunday By-Election -------------- ¶3. (SBU) On Sunday, December 9, the 600,000 registered voters on Hong Kong Island will select a replacement to serve the remaining eight months of the term of former legislator and DAB Party Chairman Ma Lik, who died August 8. Although eight candidates are listed on the ballot, only two - former Hong Kong Government Chief Secretary Anson Chan and former Hong Kong Government Secretary for Security Regina Ip - are likely to draw significant support. Chan is supported by the pan-democrats, Ip by both the pro-Beijing DAB and the pro-business Liberal Party. Since Chan and Ip entered the race in September, the campaign has been widely viewed as a referendum on the future of democracy in Hong Kong, and the debate has become increasingly acerbic (ref a). The polls will close at 10:30 pm, and results should be available by 2:00 am Monday morning local time. District Council Warm-Up -------------- ¶4. (SBU) While some observers viewed the November 18 district council election (ref b) as both a warm-up and a test of the relative strengths of the two competing camps, the geographic scale (all of Hong Kong) and the relevant issues (local facilities and constituent services, welfare benefits, education, and environment) of that election were fundamentally different from the Legco contest. The DAB used its vastly superior local organization to mobilize its supporters and rout the pan-democrats. That experience, with the subsequent warnings from democratic leaders of dire consequences for democracy if Ip were to defeat Chan, should have alerted the democrats to the need to get their voters to the polls. Polls Favor Chan, But ... -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Chan has led Ip since late September by 10-15 percentage points, although the "undecided" rate has remained HONG KONG 00002934 002 OF 002 high. This lead has not diminished: according to a Lingnan University Public Governance Programme poll conducted November 27, Chan's support rate had increased to 39.9 percent versus 22.6 per cent for Ip. None of the other six candidates received more than one percent. Perhaps more importantly, about 82 percent of those surveyed said they intended to vote on election day, leading the pollster to estimate that more than 50 percent of the voters actually would cast ballots on Sunday. ¶6. (C) Civic Party Secretary General and Chan supporter Professor Joseph Cheng confirmed to us November 30 that the primary concern for the pan-democrats was voter turnout. Historically in Hong Kong, legislative by-elections have drawn just 33-38 percent of the voters, but Cheng said anything less than 45 percent would be dangerous for Chan. He said the "pro-establishment" parties could mobilize up to 90 percent of their supporters; if the democrats got 60 percent of their people to the polls they would win, and 45-60 percent would give them a strong chance. ¶7. (SBU) In the last week of the campaign, both sides have attempted to energize their supporters and build their images. On November 25, a second televised debate drew testy exchanges between the contestants and scuffles among their supporters. Ip called Chan a "radical," while Chan accused Ip of being a "fake democrat." Since then, DP legislator and Chan campaign team member Sin Chung-kai distributed an e-newsletter warning voters not to be "fooled" by polls showing Chan with a double-digit lead over Ip. Similarly, another Chan team member, former Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) chair Lily Yam, sent a personal e-mail to former civil servants urging them to vote for Chan. On November 28, Ip staged a campaign rally in Chater Garden, adjacent to the Legco building, where she was joined by DAB leaders Tam Yiu-chung and Jasper Tsang Yok-sing, Liberal Party legislators Selina Chow and Miriam Lau, executive councilor and Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) president Cheng Yiu-tong, and Ocean Park chairman Allan Zeman. The actual election day in Hong Kong is expected to be quiet, with no last-minute rallies and no exit polls released until after the polls close. Cunningham