HONG KONG BY-ELECTION: ANSON CHAN TOUGHENS STANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 002751 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2032 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI CH HK SUBJECT: HONG KONG BY-ELECTION: ANSON CHAN TOUGHENS STANCE ON DEMOCRACY REF: A. HONG KONG 02359 ¶B. HONG KONG 02465 ¶C. HONG KONG 02587 Classified By: E/P Section Chief Laurent Charbonnet; Reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Nine candidates have registered to contest the December 2 Legislative Council (Legco) by-election to fill the seat vacated by the death of Ma Lik. The clear front-runners remain former senior civil servants Anson Chan of the pan-democratic camp and her pro-Beijing opponent Regina Ip; none of the other candidates is expected to impact the race significantly. In her campaign platform released October 29, Chan said her primary goal was to push for full universal suffrage for both the Chief Executive (CE) and Legco in 2012. Chan also said she would improve dialogue between the Hong Kong Government (HKG) and Beijing, push for resolution of the June 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, and address various socio-economic livelihood issues of concern to working class and elderly voters. Ip, who unveiled her platform October 23, also claims to favor universal suffrage in 2012, but says 2016-17 would be acceptable "fallback options" if consensus could not be reached by 2012. The pan-democrats have criticized Ip's much more complex formula for electoral reform as raising the bar for pro-democracy candidates to contest the elections. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Comment: By toughening her position on universal suffrage, adding the need to resolve the June 1989 crackdown, and broadening her platform's coverage of livelihood issues, Chan is seeking to sharpen the distinctions between herself and Ip. Even more than before, she hopes to turn the by-election into a referendum on universal suffrage and - through inclusion of the Tiananmen issue - on Hong Kong's uniqueness and autonomy. This strategic adjustment probably reflects the common perception that the race is growing closer. Democratic Party (DP) legislator Martin Lee, DP Chairman Albert Ho, and Frontier legislator Emily Lau all told the Consul General on November 1 that they still believed Chan would win, but the race is becoming tougher. Ho and Lau also observed that Ip was running a professional, well-planned campaign, while the pan-democrats were feeling pressured by the pro-government camp's organizational and financial advantages, especially at a time when there was no galvanizing political issue to bring out the voters. End Comment. Nine Candidates Join the Race -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In addition to Anson Chan and Regina Ip, seven candidates have registered for the December 2 Legco by-election to fill the seat vacated by the death of pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) chairman Ma Lik (refs a, b). (Note: Candidates are required to obtain nominations from 100 voters and pay a deposit of HKD 50,000 (USD 6,500), refundable if they win three percent of the vote. End note.) Hong Kong media have speculated that some of the late-joining, lesser-known candidates might have been fielded by the pro-government camp to dilute the Chan vote, but they more likely are simply trying to promote themselves and attract attention for their issues and/or future campaigns. None of the seven - with the possible exception of heritage activist Ho Loy - is expected to have any significant impact on the race. Political scientist Ma Ngok estimated that the seven "fringe" candidates at most would win a total of ten percent of the votes cast. Chan: Universal Suffrage in 2012 -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In her campaign platform released October 29, Chan said her primary goal was to push for full universal suffrage for both the CE and Legco in 2012 "because this is what will give us good governance." She publicly withdrew her previous position that a delay to 2016 might be acceptable if there was a compelling reason to wait, as no such reasons had been offered by anyone. Chan said any candidate able to gain nomination by ten percent of the 800-member Election Committee should be able to stand for CE in a one person, one vote election. For Legco, she proposed that the thirty functional constituency seats should be replaced by directly elected geographic constituencies, also in 2012. Noting that her advocacy of democracy was "in line" with PRC President Hu Jintao's policy of "people-based governance," Chan also said she would improve dialogue between the HKG and Beijing. More HONG KONG 00002751 002 OF 002 controversially, she called for "our nation to resolve" the "major historical issue" of the June 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown. ¶5. (SBU) Beyond political issues, Chan sought to expand her platform to include more socio-economic livelihood issues of concern to working class and elderly voters. She supports introduction of a minimum wage for low-income occupations and increased allowances and benefits for elderly people. Chan also urged tighter controls on air pollution, expanded efforts for conservation, and expansion of an existing and popular voucher scheme for kindergarten students. Ip: Raise the Bar for Democratic Candidates -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Ip, who unveiled her platform October 23, also claims to favor universal suffrage in 2012, but says 2016-17 would be acceptable "fallback options" if consensus could not be reached by 2012. Under Ip's much more complex formula for electoral reform, the existing 800-member CE Election Committee would be replaced with a 1,800-member, four-sector body. To contest the election, a CE candidate would need nominations from at least ten percent of each of four sectors: business and commercial (400 members); professional (400); labor, social services, and religion (400); and Legco, district councils, and local National People's Congress (NPC) and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) delegates (600). Defending the plan, Ip said CE candidates should have to work hard to win "balanced representation" from each sector. Aside from electoral reform, Ip said she supported the ten major infrastructure projects proposed by CE Donald Tsang in his annual policy address (ref c) as a way to maintain solid economic growth. She also included various livelihood issues, such as education reform and reduction of environmental pollution, in her platform. Chan vs. Ip -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Many of the pan-democrat leaders have spoken publicly in favor of Chan's revised campaign platform, although some of the more liberal members of the camp said she could have gone further on issues such as the minimum wage. At an October 28 rally, leaders of the 170,000-member Confederation of Trade Unions and the 80,000-member Professional Teachers' Union publicly appealed to their members to support Chan. Chan has described Ip as a "fake democrat" who would bring "gradual and orderly regress" to political reform. She said Ip's proposal for implementation of universal suffrage would "set even more hurdles" for universal suffrage that were "more onerous than those laid down in the Basic Law." Chan said there was no reason to accept any "filtering mechanism" that would prevent "candidates whom the public may wish to see standing for election." To illustrate Chan's point, the pan-democrats note that Civic Party legislator Alan Leong -- who won 132 nominations and was able to contest the March 2007 election against incumbent CE Tsang - did not win a single nomination from the business sector. Had Ip's system been in place, Leong could not have joined the CE race. Similarly, thus far Chan has not won a public endorsement from any major business leader. ¶8. (SBU) Ip's allies in the pro-Beijing DAB repeatedly have attempted to blur the distinctions between Ip and Chan, at least in public. They claim there are no big differences between the platforms of the two contestants. Ip herself, however, has described Chan's platform as full of "ideals and visions," while claiming that her own positions were more realistic and feasible. Cunningham