MARTIN LEE TO VISIT WASHINGTON AS HONG KONG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 002596 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2032 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI CH HK SUBJECT: MARTIN LEE TO VISIT WASHINGTON AS HONG KONG POLITICS HEAT UP REF: A. BEIJING 06399 ¶B. HONG KONG 02251 ¶C. HONG KONG 02587 ¶D. HONG KONG 02333 ¶E. HONG KONG 02067 ¶F. HONG KONG 02202 ¶G. HONG KONG 02359 ¶H. HONG KONG 02465 Classified By: Consul General James Cunningham; Reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Democratic Party founder and legislator Martin Lee will visit Washington October 18-19 for discussions at State and the NSC (requested) on the political state of play in Hong Kong. His visit comes during an unusually busy Hong Kong political season, which this year includes the Chief Executive's (CE) annual policy address, conclusion of the public comment period for the Hong Kong Government's (HKG) "Green Paper" on constitutional reform, the November 18 district council elections, and a hotly-contested by-election for a Legislative Council (Legco) seat on December 2. The by-election is drawing intensive media and public attention, as two high-profile retired civil servants - former Chief Secretary Anson Chan and former Secretary for Security Regina Ip - entered the contest on SIPDIS behalf of the pro-democracy and pro-government camps, respectively. After a large initial advantage for Chan, the public opinion polls now indicate a close contest. The central government reportedly has grown very concerned about the election, which it is watching closely to see if Chan becomes the unifying force in and outside of Legco that the pan-democrats hitherto have lacked. Also, Beijing fears Chan, if elected to Legco, then might decide to run for CE in ¶2012. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Comment: Martin Lee is looking for international support for Hong Kong's democratic movement, hoping that the movement will be energized by an Anson Chan campaign and victory in December. Beijing clearly is watching the Legco by-election, including possible U.S. "interference," very closely, and will accord Lee's travel to Washington a similar level of attention (ref a). A by-election victory for Chan, until recently almost taken for granted, is not assured. She will be opposed by many establishment elements, and we assume Beijing will pull out all the stops behind the scenes, including portraying her as an instrument of the Americans, to defeat her. Lee was one of the first to persuade Chan to run in the belief that she -- and the democratic forces -- would gain new energy and credibility. That indeed is likely to be the result if she wins, but a defeat would end her political career and influence and deal the pan-democrats a serious blow. ¶3. (C) Comment, continued: Ip, with the support of Beijing and Hong Kong's establishment parties, is attempting to change the nature of the debate over democracy by raising the issue of how to best achieve universal suffrage. She is painting herself as a genuine advocate for democracy, calling for universal suffrage in the CE election in 2012 -- if Beijing agrees -- or by 2017, at the latest. Ip is trying to shift the debate from "when will Hong Kong have democracy" to "who can best advocate for democracy without confrontation with Beijing." She argues that only those who can talk to Beijing and have its trust can achieve this goal for the Hong Kong people, and she and the pro-Beijing forces are portraying Chan and the pan-democrats as confrontational oppositionists with whom Beijing cannot deal. The pan-democrats respond that accepting Ip's argument amounts to ceding the choice of candidate to Beijing. If defeated, Ip -- who began as the underdog -- will live to fight again for a Legco seat in next year's elections. End Comment. Martin Lee Travel to U.S. and Europe -------------- ¶4. (C) Democratic Party (DP) founder and legislator Martin Lee, accompanied by DP Vice Chairman and Legislative Council (Legco) member Sin Chung Kai and one or two others, will visit Washington October 18-19 for meetings at State and the NSC, among others requested. Lee and his colleagues intend to brief their USG contacts on the political state of play in Hong Kong, including the "Green Paper" process for electoral reform (ref b),the Chief Executive's October 10 policy address (ref c),the upcoming November 18 district council election, and the December 2 Legco by-election (ref d). They HONG KONG 00002596 002 OF 002 will offer their views on the longer-term prospects for political reform and implementation of universal suffrage in Hong Kong. Lee and his group also plan to travel to London, Brussels, and possibly Canada for meetings with senior foreign affairs officials. Their overall purpose on this trip is to raise awareness and solicit support from sympathetic overseas contacts. The central government in Beijing, which strongly distrusts Lee and views with suspicion his numerous close friendships abroad, already has registered its discontent over his expected access to high-level USG officials. Also, some of Hong Kong's pro-Beijing media recently have accused the U.S. and several other western consulates in Hong Kong of instigating Anson Chan's entry into the Legco by-election race; any publicity accorded to Lee's meetings in Washington, London, and other capitals undoubtedly will generate further condemnation. Politics Takes Center Stage -------------- ¶5. (SBU) This year's political season in Hong Kong began July 11, when the HKG released the "Green Paper" for a three-month period of public review and comment. On August 8, DAB Chairman and Legco member Ma Lik died and the HKG scheduled a by-election for December 2 to fill his seat (refs e, f). Two weeks before the by-election, Hong Kong will hold district council elections, which many view as an important training ground for budding politicians and for building momentum for both the December 2 by-election and the September 2008 Legco general election. Some members of the pro-democracy camp also view the district council contests as a virtual referendum on universal suffrage. ¶6. (SBU) The December 2 Legco by-election contest between Anson Chan, representing the pan-democratic camp, and Regina Ip, who is backed by various pro-government and pro-business groups, attracts intense daily media coverage. Chan's entry into the race (ref g) greatly boosted the hopes of the democrats to grab this seat from the pro-government side. Since Ip formally declared her candidacy, with high-level endorsements from the Liberal Party, the DAB, and the business community, however, the polls have narrowed significantly: what was thought to be a sixty-forty edge for Chan now appears to be an even contest. Chan left a bad impression on some pan-democrats when she left an October 7 rally after just twenty minutes, rather than continue on a march to the government offices. Earlier invited by Chan to join that rally to demonstrate her pro-democracy credentials, Ip had declined, saying "there are many ways one can express support for democracy." ¶7. (C) Shiu Sin-por is a long-time pro-Beijing consulate contact who recently returned from Beijing's Qinghua University to accept an appointment as a member of the HKG's Central Policy Unit. A local delegate to the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC),Shiu worked on the Basic Law Consultative Committee in the 1980s and the Preparatory Committee for Hong Kong's reversion in the 1990s. He confirmed to us on October 5 that the central government had grown very concerned about the by-election since Chan entered the race, which they were watching closely (ref h). Shiu said Beijing feared Chan would become the unifying and coordinating force in and outside of Legco that the pan-democrats hitherto have lacked. Furthermore, he said Beijing feared Chan would want to run for CE in 2012. Marut