ANSON CHAN TO CONTEST LEGCO BY-ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 002359

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP AND EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2032
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI HK CH
SUBJECT: ANSON CHAN TO CONTEST LEGCO BY-ELECTION

REF: A. HONG KONG 02202

B. HONG KONG 02333

Classified By: E/P Section Chief Laurent Charbonnet; Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: On September 11, former Hong Kong Government
(HKG) Chief Secretary Anson Chan formally announced her
candidacy for the December 2 by-election for the Legislative
Council (Legco) seat vacated by the death of DAB Chairman Ma
Lik. Chan apparently was convinced by several pan-democratic
"heavyweights," including Democratic Party (DP) legislators
Martin Lee and Albert Ho and "Apple Daily" publisher Jimmy
Lai, that she was the only candidate able to unite the
pan-democrats and defeat presumed pro-government candidate
Regina Ip. It is not clear whether Chan will participate in
the pan-democratic internal vetting process; if she does not,
some of the more leftist parties may decline to support her,
or even run another candidate. On the other side, while
independent Regina Ip presumably remains the front-runner and
most likely candidate, the Democratic Alliance for the
Betterment and Progress of Hong (DAB) has yet to endorse her
and may consider running one of its members in the
by-election. One Anson Chan advisor told us that while
"there was no reason why Chan shouldn't win" the by-election,
the pro-HKG and pro-Beijing side might attempt to "embarrass"
her, perhaps by casting doubt on her pro-democracy
credentials. Separately, a recent public opinion survey
indicates growing support for universal suffrage for both the
Chief Executive (CE) and Legco elections in 2012. End
Summary.


2. (C) Comment: The entry of Chan escalates the importance
and influence of the by-election considerably. Despite
denials by the pro-government parties, many people now will
view the contest as an opportunity to voice their preferences
for political reform and adoption of universal suffrage.
Most observers from both sides believe that a Chan-Ip race
will be close and hard-fought, but that Chan will win. Her
victory would provide Chan with both a popular mandate and a
highly visible platform from which to pursue democratization,
good governance, and genuine governmental accountability.
For CE Donald Tsang, a Chan-Ip race is somewhat of a
"lose-lose" situation: he is known to dislike Ip, but he has
privately made clear that the presence in Legco of Chan, his
former boss, would be very threatening to him. A Chan
victory also might cause discomfort for the central
government in Beijing, which has said it wanted a "harmonious
and stable" political environment in Hong Kong. End Comment.

Putting Her Values to the Test
--------------


3. (SBU) Former Hong Kong Government Chief Secretary Anson
Chan held a September 11 press conference to formally
announce her candidacy as an "independent" for the December 2
by-election for the Legislative Council (Legco) seat vacated
by the August 8 death of DAB Chairman Ma Lik. After more
than one week of denials and hesitations (refs),Chan
apparently was convinced by several pan-democratic
"heavyweights," including DP legislators Martin Lee and
Albert Ho and "Apple Daily" publisher Jimmy Lai, that she was
the only candidate able to unite the pan-democrats and defeat
presumed pro-government candidate Regina Ip. At her press
conference, Chan said it would be an opportunity for her to
put her values to the test and play a role in the advancement
of democracy and good governance.


4. (SBU) Chan's entry into the race was facilitated by the
withdrawal of two other pan-democratic candidates. First, on
September 3 former legislator Cyd Ho, at that time the
probable front-runner, dropped out to "pave the way" for Chan
to run. Next, after conferring with Lee, Ho, Chan, and
senior barrister Denis Chang, a close Chan advisor, DP
district councilor Kam Nai-wai announced late on September 10
that he also would remove himself from contention to allow
the pan-democrats to unite behind Chan.

Vetting Process Uncertain
--------------


5. (SBU) It is not clear whether Chan will proceed through
the preliminary internal vetting process, previously agreed
by all the pan-democratic parties, that was designed to unify
their support behind a single candidate. Some of the leftist
pan-democrats, particularly from the League of Social
Democrats (LSD) and The Frontier, had grumbled recently that
Chan was subverting their internal democratic and transparent
mechanism. The LSD was especially critical: Deputy Chairman

HONG KONG 00002359 002.2 OF 003


Lo Wing-lok, who had been selected as the LSD candidate for
the selection process, publicly described Chan's presumed
refusal to undergo internal vetting as a "dark day for
democracy."


6. (C) LSD legislator Albert Chan told us on September 11
that, while some of his colleagues were upset by the manner
in which Chan had entered the race, he personally was "more
neutral" towards her, despite their "quite different
ideological beliefs." If Anson Chan agreed to participate in
the internal vetting procedure, which he believed was
important, then he felt the LSD would support her. If she
refused to be vetted, however, then there would be "more
conflict" and Lo might decide to join the by-election as an
LSD candidate. Albert Chan felt that any of the
pan-democratic candidates - Anson Chan, Lo, or Cyd Ho - could
defeat Ip in a one-on-one race.

What Will the Other Side Do?
--------------


7. (SBU) Chan's entry into the race also clouds the picture
for the pro-HKG and pro-Beijing camp. Although still not a
declared candidate, Regina Ip almost certainly was planning
to run. She had met with leaders of both the Liberal Party
(LP) and the DAB, the former of which said it would support
her as long as the DAB did not field its own candidate. The
DAB, however, had not yet reached a consensus on whether to
back Ip or to put forward a DAB member. On September 10, LP
Chairman James Tien said his party would support DAB Vice
Chair Ip Kwok-him were he selected by the DAB, but would
support Ip if the DAB ran a more junior member against Chan.


8. (SBU) In a September 11 "South China Morning Post" (SCMP)
column, DAB founder and Legco member Jasper Tsang Yok-sing
opined that the pan-democrats were relying on Chan's personal
charisma, rather than voter support for their political
platform, to win the by-election. He said Chan's candidacy
left the pro-government and pro-Beijing camp with two
choices: play down the significance of the by-election as a
"popularity test of various political reform proposals" and
try to divert attention to other, less political issues; or,
put forward a candidate of less stature whose defeat would
incur a lower political cost. Tsang clearly preferred the
first option, with a strong candidate engaging in an "honest
and vigorous debate on Hong Kong's constitutional
development." He believed that choosing the second option
simply would perpetuate the pan-democratic "myth" that the
by-election will be a referendum on democracy.

Press
--------------


9. (C) The Hong Kong press have covered Chan's deliberation
process in great detail. The most recent issue of "East
Week" magazine, which tends to be pro-HKG, was released on
September 11 with photographs of Lee, Ho, Kam, and Lai
conferring in a coffee shop on the morning of September 10.
The article claimed that Ho and Kam then met with Chan to
finalize her announcement strategy. Also on September 11,
the "SCMP" speculated that publisher Jimmy Lai and PCCW
Chairman Richard Li, son of tycoon Li Ka-shing, would provide
financial support for Chan's campaign.

Chan Advisor Christine Loh
--------------


10. (C) Civic Exchange (a local NGO) Chief Executive
Christine Loh, a member of Chan's "Core Group" of advisors
and also a former Legco member, told us September 11 that
"there was no reason why Chan shouldn't win" the by-election.
She likened the race thus far to a chess match, which both
sides have played poorly; the next move would be taken by the
pro-government side. Once their candidate was chosen, Loh
felt they would attempt to "embarrass" Chan, perhaps by
casting doubt on her pro-democracy credentials. Loh believed
it possible that Richard Li might offer financial backing for
Chan's campaign, but if he did so it would become public
information, as all candidates are required to report their
sources of support.

Polls Suggest Pan-democratic Momentum
--------------


11. (SBU) The latest public opinion survey by the Hong Kong
University Public Opinion Program indicates growing support
for universal suffrage in 2012 and, by implication, for the
pan-democratic parties. Conducted September 4-7, the poll

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found that 59 percent of respondents favored universal
suffrage for the 2012 CE election, a four point rise from
late August. Similarly, 51 percent wanted universal suffrage
for the 2012 Legco election, up one point since the previous
survey. Also, 12 percent of respondents favored universal
suffrage for both elections "as soon as possible" (i.e.,
before 2012),the highest level of support yet for that
option.

Cunningham