HONG KONG BY-ELECTION: DEARTH OF POLITICAL TALENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 002333

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NOFORN
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DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2032
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI HK CH
SUBJECT: HONG KONG BY-ELECTION: DEARTH OF POLITICAL TALENT

REF: HONG KONG 02202

Classified By: E/P Section Chief Laurent Charbonnet; Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: Interest in the December 2 by-election to
fill the Legislative Council (Legco) seat vacated by the
death of DAB Chairman Ma Lik has intensified since his August
24 funeral. The various pan-democratic parties have agreed
on a mechanism to select a single candidate, although the
possibility of former Hong Kong Government Chief Secretary
Anson Chan running, as well as the exit from the campaign of
former Legco member Cyd Ho, have complicated the process.
The pan-democrats hope to decide on their candidate by early
October. Former Secretary for Security Regina Ip, possibly
hoping to set the stage for a run for Chief Executive in
2012, is the most likely pro-government and pro-Beijing
candidate. She has met privately to solicit support from
leaders of both the Liberal Party (LP) and the Democratic
Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB),
and she is widely viewed as Beijing's candidate of choice.
The DAB, however, may wish to field its own candidate, in
which case the LP would support that person. Public opinion
polls suggest that only Chan could defeat Ip in a two-way
race. One Civic Party contact bemoaned the pan-democrats'
"dearth of political talent" and was pessimistic they could
defeat Ip if Chan did not run. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: The by-election is politically symbolic and
important, and its outcome could have a significant impact on
both the "green paper" political reform process and next
year's Legco general election. The by-election campaign also
could help all the parties build support for their candidates
in the November 18 district council elections. The
pan-democrats may be taking a major risk when they
characterize the by-election as "democracy versus
non-democracy," especially if Anson Chan declines to run,
because without her they may be unable to defeat the
"non-democracy" icon Ip. They nevertheless want to use the
by-election to boost their campaign for universal suffrage in
2012, which thus far has not gathered momentum. The stakes
may be somewhat smaller for the pro-government parties,
although obviously they want to retain Ma Lik's Legco seat.
End Comment.


3. (SBU) The August 8 death of DAB legislator Ma Lik (ref)
created an immediate vacancy from Legco's Hong Kong Island
constituency. The Electoral Affairs Commission has scheduled
a by-election for December 2, the winner of which will serve
an eight-month term until the September 2008 Legco general
election. An intense public discussion of possible
candidates for Ma's seat began almost immediately after his
death, then picked up steam following the August 24 funeral.

Pan-democrats: Who Will Run?
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4. (SBU) Even before Ma's funeral, at least three
pan-democrats had expressed interest in contesting the
election. Former Democratic Party (DP) Legco member Cyd Ho
quickly announced she would run as an independent democrat,
hopefully with support from the other democratic parties, and
appeared to have the inside track. Some democrats felt they
owed her their support because a strategy blunder by the DP
had cost the incumbent Ho her seat in 2004. Former talk show
host Raymond Wong Yuk-man of the leftist League of Social
Democrats (LSD) also quickly indicated he might run, as did
DP district councilor Kam Nai-wai, who since then has gained
the DP's endorsement as its candidate in the pan-democratic
selection process. Two other LSD members and former
legislators, Lo Wing-lok and Tsang Kin-shing, appeared
interested in the race. The Civic Party, with six current
Legco members, said it probably would support Ho.


5. (SBU) With no obvious leader, the pan-democrats decided to
establish a clear, democratic and transparent mechanism to
select a single candidate. On September 3, they finally
agreed on a three-part formula: 50 percent from a public
opinion poll, 35 percent through votes by ten pan-democratic
organizations, and 15 percent from votes by the 28
pan-democratic district councilors in the Hong Kong Island
constituency. Negotiators from all the democratic parties
agreed to the outcome of the mechanism. The formal process
is scheduled to begin September 23, with the result announced
in early October.

Chan Undecided, Ho Drops Out
--------------


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6. (SBU) In the meantime, however, several democratic
leaders, including DP founder and legislator Martin Lee,
decided that none of their announced candidates could defeat
Ip, so they began to lobby retired Hong Kong Government Chief
Secretary Anson Chan to enter the race. Chan's immediate

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reaction was that she was "not keen" to run, but she agreed
to give the idea further consideration and discuss it with
her "Core Group" of advisors. Some of the more leftist
democrats, such as Emily Lau, Frederick Fung, and Leung
Yiu-chung, were not eager for Chan to become their candidate
and argued for preservation of the agreed selection
mechanism. As of September 7, Chan had not issued a firm
decision, but most observers believe she is unlikely to join
the race.


7. (C) On September 3, Cyd Ho unexpectedly announced that she
would not run for the Legco seat. The press speculated that
she had been "back-stabbed" by some of the pan-democrats, who
believed she would be unable to defeat Ip. She also had been
criticized for her suggestion that people should withhold tax
payments as a means to press for universal suffrage, and one
Liberal Party district council member had revived an old
semi-scandal about her academic records. Publicly, Ho merely
said she was quitting the race to maximize the pan-democratic
camp's chances for victory in the by-election. She told us
on September 4 that she had "cleared the way" for Anson Chan
to run because Chan was the "best hope" and the pan-democrats
"cannot lose this battle."


8. (C) On September 7, Civic Party Secretary General Joseph
Cheng dejectedly told us that Chan probably would not run and
that neither the DP's Kam nor anyone from the LSD would be
able to defeat Ip. Former ICAC Commissioner Lily Yam, a
member of Anson Chan's Core Group recently rumored to be
under consideration, also was not interested. Cheng said the
Civic Party itself did not have any strong candidates:
neither media commentator Claudia Mo nor solicitor Tanya
Chan, both of whose names had been floated in the press, was
ready or willing to contest the by-election. Mo was
preparing to run in the Kowloon West constituency in 2008 and
would not want to switch to Hong Kong Island, while the party
hoped to pair Chan with incumbent leader Audrey Eu to win two
seats from Hong Kong Island in 2008. Were Mo or Chan to
contest the by-election, a loss to Ip would seriously damage
their public images and future political careers. Cheng
bemoaned the pan-democratic camp's "dearth of political
talent."

Pro-Government: Regina Ip the Front-runner
--------------


9. (SBU) Regina Ip clearly is the most likely pro-government
and pro-Beijing candidate, although she has yet formally to
announce her candidacy. Some political commentators believe
Ip wants to win the Legco seat to set the stage for a run for
Chief Executive in 2012. Ip has no known party affiliation,
but she has met privately with leaders of both the LP and the
DAB and is widely viewed as Beijing's candidate of choice.
LP Chairman James Tien said his party would not field its own
candidate and would support Ip as long as the DAB did not
offer its own candidate. On August 26 DAB founder Jasper
Tsang, while noting there was "very good room for

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cooperation" with Ip, declined to throw his party's support
to her, citing a need to canvass the DAB for any suitable
candidates. Tsang said each candidate's "chances for
success" should be the primary selection criterion.


10. (C) As of September 7, however, the DAB still was not
ready to openly back Ip. DAB Vice Chairman Greg So told us
that press reports alleging DAB support for Ip at this time
were "not accurate." He said the party was actively looking
for its own candidate, although they did not rule out
supporting a "like-minded" person from outside the DAB. So
noted that some party members, including newly elected
chairman Tam Yiu-chung, strongly believed that the DAB should
field one of its own for the election. So said they would
decide by the end of September.

Polls: Only Chan Could Beat Ip?
--------------


11. (SBU) A late August poll by the independent "Ming Pao"
newspaper found that Ip would defeat any of her likely
opponents, including Ho (by 50 to 34 percent) and Wong (by 56
to 30 percent). After the possibility of an Anson Chan
candidacy appeared, however, a Hong Kong University poll
commissioned by and published in the "Apple Daily" on
September 7 indicated Chan would defeat Ip by 52 percent to

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32 percent.

Cunningham