HONG KONG'S GREEN PAPER: NO SIGN OF PROGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 002251

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP AND EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2032
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI HK CH
SUBJECT: HONG KONG'S GREEN PAPER: NO SIGN OF PROGRESS

REF: A. HONG KONG 0603

B. HONG KONG 01833

C. HONG KONG 02170

D. HONG KONG 02067

E. HONG KONG 2202

Classified By: Acting E/P Chief Craig Reilly; Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: Hong Kong's "Green Paper" process to develop
a broad consensus on how to implement universal suffrage has
stalled. The key players, including the Hong Kong Government
(HKG),the pro-Beijing and pro-HKG political parties, the
pro-democratization parties, and the central government in
Beijing, all seem unwilling to engage in meaningful
consultation or to compromise. The HKG has begun staging
public forums to discuss the issues, which the pan-democrats
ridicule as a public relations show. The generally pro-HKG
and pro-Beijing DAB has been absorbed with funeral
arrangements for its deceased chairman and selection of his
successor. The pro-business Liberal Party (LP) has backed
away from its previous support for universal suffrage for the
2012 Chief Executive (CE) election in favor of "not later
than 2017 if conditions are ripe." The leader of the
pro-Beijing Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) recently
remarked that universal suffrage in 2012 would be
"impossible," after which Democratic Party (DP) Chairman
Albert Ho told him to "keep his mouth shut." The
pan-democrats continue to criticize their opponents
vociferously while standing fast for universal suffrage for
both the 2012 CE and Legislative Council (Legco) elections.
The central government openly entered the fray when a senior
Hong Kong-based PRC official observed that a majority of Hong
Kong people found 2017 an "acceptable" date for universal
suffrage. A recent public opinion poll suggests majority
support for universal suffrage in 2012 for both elections.
End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: Rather than progress toward a Green Paper
consensus, mutual animosity and rancor seem to be escalating.
The pan-democrats fear that the central government and its
local allies, by urging the public to accept 2017, will
succeed in lowering expectations and rendering the people
resigned to their fate. The HKG seems amenable to that
approach, or simply resigned to the fact that Beijing has the
final say. At this point a compromise solution is not in
sight. Veteran political commentator Frank Ching told us
that unless CE Donald Tsang had a "hidden plan" and could
"pull a rabbit out of his hat," Ching did not see how the
Green Paper process could succeed. He also pointed out that
Beijing continues to insist that the Basic Law gives it
substantive authority to formally appoint the CE; even with
full universal suffrage, that power would enable the central
government to reject the winner of a CE election. End
Comment.


3. (SBU) During his re-election campaign early this year,
Hong Kong CE Donald Tsang publicly and repeatedly vowed to
"resolve" the universal suffrage issue within his term of
office -- i.e., by 2012 (ref a). With the July 11 release of
the "Green Paper" listing various options for reform, the HKG
said it hoped to stimulate a public debate leading to
consensus on the way forward (ref b). CE Tsang previously
had specified that a consensus proposal would require
approval by the HKG, likely approval by two-thirds of Legco
members, support from at least sixty percent of the Hong Kong
public, and "standing a good chance" of gaining acceptance
from the central government in Beijing. Since then, however,
the various players in the process -- the HKG, the
pro-Beijing and pro-HKG political parties, the
pro-democratization parties, and the central government in
Beijing -- do not appear to have engaged in any meaningful
consultation, nor do they appear willing to compromise.

Hong Kong Government
--------------


4. (SBU) On August 21 the HKG, represented by Chief Secretary
Henry Tang, Secretary for Mainland and Constitutional Affairs
Stephen Lam, and Secretary for Home Affairs Tsang Tak-sing,
convened the first of four public forums on the Green Paper.
Tang emphasized the need for consensus and urged attendees to
strive for a balance between economic and political
development and to avoid the use of civil disobedience to
pressure the government. Several pro-democracy participants
criticized the HKG's "monopolization" of the forum, which
they characterized as a public relations show.


5. (SBU) On August 27, Secretary Lam told a district council

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meeting that "some sectors in the community" believed that
universal suffrage in 2012 might be inconsistent with the
Basic Law's requirement of "gradual and orderly progress."
Furthermore, two other issues -- formation of a CE nomination
committee and reform of the Legco functional constituencies
-- were similarly controversial. In response, pro-democracy
Confederation of Trade Unions legislator Lee Cheuk-yan said
Lam had "opened up this box" to attract intervention from the
central government.

Pro-Government Parties
--------------


6. (SBU) Hong Kong's largest political party, the Democratic
Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB),
almost always supports the central government and generally
supports the HKG on major policy issues. Since the August 8
death of party chairman Ma Lik (refs d and e),however, the
DAB leadership has been absorbed with funeral preparations
followed by the election of a new chairman, Tam Yiu-chung, on
August 28. Now that their internal issues are more settled,
the DAB likely will play a greater role in the public debate
on constitutional reform.


7. (SBU) The Liberal Party (LP),which reflects the interests
of Hong Kong's leading tycoons and also supports the HKG on
many issues, has backed away from its previous support for
universal suffrage in the 2012 CE election. In a position
paper submitted to CE Tsang during a consultation on the CE's
annual October policy address, the LP says it now favors
returning the CE by universal suffrage "not later than 2017
if conditions are ripe." For Legco, the LP paper said reform
should be phased in sometime after the CE election is
democratized. LP Vice Chair Selina Chow claimed "not later
than 2017" was clearer than its previous conditional support
for 2012. While the Democratic Party immediately criticized
the LP's "U-turn," political scientist Ma Ngoc noted that the
party had little choice but to "follow Beijing's line."


8. (SBU) The Federation of Trade Unions (FTU),Hong Kong's
largest labor confederation, is strongly pro-Beijing and
usually pro-HKG. Its President, Cheng Yiu-tong, is a member
of both the Executive Council and Legco, and the FTU has two
other Legco members as well. On August 25, Cheng remarked
that it would be "impossible" to attain universal suffrage in
2012 because to do so would conflict with the Basic Law's
requirement for "gradual and orderly progress." After
pan-democratic leaders including Democratic Party Chairman
Albert Ho objected strongly, telling Cheng to "keep his mouth
shut," he subsequently clarified his statement by saying he
was merely expressing his personal views.

Pro-Democracy Parties
--------------


9. (SBU) Members of the various pan-democratic parties also
have been somewhat pre-occupied with selection of a joint
candidate to contest the December 2 by-election for Ma Lik's
Legco seat. Several democrats continue to promote their
proposal to implement a form of universal suffrage for both
the CE and Legco in 2012. They would expand the CE
nomination committee and modify the functional constituency
election process to make it more democratic. At the same
time, the democrats have responded vigorously and critically
to comments by HKG leaders, the LP, the FTU, and the central
government (see paras 4, 5, 7, 8, 10).

Beijing
--------------


10. (SBU) The central government, represented by the Central
Government Liaison Office (CGLO) and the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs Office, tends to keep a very low public profile in
Hong Kong. For the most part, they have avoided much comment
on the Green Paper, leading some observers to believe their
tactic was simple procrastination. On August 22, however, a
senior mainland official, CGLO Deputy Director Li Guikang,
observed that more than half of the Hong Kong people found it
"acceptable" if universal suffrage for the CE and Legco could
not be achieved in 2012. This, he said, demonstrated the
increasingly "rational" views of the Hong Kong people. The
pan-democrats immediately complained that Li's comments
revealed that the Green Paper process was a "fake" because
Beijing already had ruled out the possibility of universal
suffrage in 2012. Several days later, veteran politician
Allen Lee -- who has close ties with Beijing -- called on the
pan-democrats to accept 2017 and then focus on ensuring that
target is met.

HONG KONG 00002251 003 OF 003



Hong Kong Public Opinion
--------------


11. (SBU) Recent public opinion polls on the Green Paper and
universal suffrage have indicated large fluctuations in
public support for the various options, probably due to the
less-than-clear nature of the Green Paper itself and to
differences in phrasing by the pollsters. Hong Kong's most
authoritative pollster, Hong Kong University Professor Robert
Chung, recently issued findings that appear to show strong
support for universal suffrage in 2012. In a survey
conducted August 20-24, Chung found that 55 percent of
respondents favored universal suffrage for the CE and 50
percent for Legco in 2012. However, he also found that an
additional 10-15 percent of the respondents favored universal
suffrage sometime before 2012. Combining the two groups,
Chung produced support rates for universal suffrage not later
than 2012 of 69 percent for the CE and 60 percent for Legco.

Cunningham