DEATH OF HONG KONG DAB CHAIRMAN MA LIK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HONG KONG 002067

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NOFORN
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DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/CM
NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2032
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR CH HK
SUBJECT: DEATH OF HONG KONG DAB CHAIRMAN MA LIK

REF: HONG KONG 01511

Classified By: Acting Consul General Chris Marut; Reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: Ma Lik, Legislative Councilor and Chairman
of the pro-Beijing Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and
Progress of Hong Kong (DAB),died on August 8 in a Guangzhou
hospital at age 55. His passing creates vacancies in both
the Legislative Council (Legco) and the DAB leadership that
will be strongly contested and for which there are no obvious
successors. The most likely candidates for his Legco seat
are Hong Kong Human Rights Monitor Chair and District
Councilor Cyd Ho and former Secretary for Security Regina Ip,
both of whom have been widely expected to run for the Legco
in 2008. Many will view a by-election contest, probably
within the next three months, between the liberal democrat Ho
and the pro-government Ip as a referendum on the future
course of universal suffrage and political reform in Hong
Kong. Within the DAB, none of the four current vice chairmen
has a clear edge to succeed Ma. End Summary.


2. (C) Ma Lik, Legislative Councilor and Chairman of the DAB,
died at 2:00 pm August 8 in a Guangzhou hospital. Earlier
the same day, various papers had reported that Ma was in
critical condition. Diagnosed with colon cancer in 2004, Ma
reportedly had recovered following surgery in Guangzhou,
although he regularly returned there for post-operative
treatment. Recently, following his controversial remarks
about the June 1989 Tiananmen crackdown (ref),Ma had been
absent from Hong Kong, prompting speculation either that his
health had deteriorated or that he was avoiding media
attention. During an August 3 lunch, several of Ma's DAB
colleagues told us that he remained in a Guangzhou hospital
but that his condition was improving. Press reports this
morning revealed that Ma was comatose and his prognosis was
"not optimistic." A DAB contact confirmed this morning that
the media reports were accurate and that "short of a miracle"
Ma would not survive much longer.


3. (C) The DAB is Hong Kong's largest political party, with
over 10,000 members, and generally supports policy positions
favored by the Hong Kong and central governments. With the
start of Chief Executive Donald Tsang's new term on July 1,
many observers believed that the DAB's influence on policy
would increase, particularly through the appointments of
Tsang Tak-shing as Secretary for Home Affairs and more

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recently Shiu Sin-por (who, while not a DAB member, is
strongly pro-Beijing) as a member of the Central Policy Unit.
The death of Ma probably will not affect this trend, as
party stalwarts Jasper Tsang and Maria Tam generally were
more active and influential on policy issues than Ma.


4. (C) Ma's death creates vacancies and competitions for both
his Legco seat and his DAB chairmanship. In Legco, Ma
represented a geographic (directly elected) constituency on
Hong Kong Island. According to the Hong Kong Legislative
Council Ordinance, the Electoral Affairs Commission must
arrange for a by-election to fill Ma's seat, but the law does
not specify a timeframe. A similar situation occurred when a
legislator resigned in 2000, and the by-election was held
within three months. Initial press speculation suggests that
the most likely candidates are Hong Kong Human Rights Monitor
Chair and District Councilor Cyd Ho, who narrowly lost her
seat in the 2004 Legco elections and has told us she intends
to run in 2008, and former Secretary for Security Regina Ip,
who also is widely believed to be a candidate for Legco in

2008. Given the prominence of both Ho and Ip, as well as
Ma's recent controversial remarks, many would view a
by-election contest between the liberal democrat Ho and the
pro-government Ip as a referendum on the future course of
universal suffrage and political reform in Hong Kong. Both
the DAB and the pan-democratic parties will work hard to
mobilize their supporters for the election campaign.


5. (C) Within the DAB, the likely succession process is less
clear. There are four vice chairmen, none of whom are
obvious front-runners: Legco members Tam Yiu-chung and Lau
Kong-wah, former Legco member Ip Kwok-him, and Greg So
Kam-leung (who recently replaced NPC Deputy Maria Tam as vice
chairman). Tam Yiu-chung is the most senior of the four, but
his strong Federation of Trade Unions connections and lack of
fluency in English may conflict with the party's attempts to
attract relatively younger and more professional members.
Lau, while meeting those needs, may be hampered by his past
association with the United Democrats, the precursor of the
Democratic Party. Some of the DAB's more left-wing members
continue to regard him with suspicion. Ip, like Tam, is not
fluent in English, but may be more seriously hampered by the

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fact that he lost a 2003 District Council race against Cyd
Ho. Ip could strengthen his position with a strong
performance in the November District Council elections.
Finally, So is intelligent and articulate, but he probably is
too young (48),too "foreign" (he holds a Canadian passport),
and too inexperienced within the party; he also lacks close
connections with Beijing. One way out of this dilemma would
be for the party to convince former chairman Jasper Tsang to
resume the position he left in 2003, but at this time we do
not know if Tsang would be interested in doing so.
Marut