NIINISTO SEES A TOUGH ROAD FOR THE CONSERVATIVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000094 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL FI SUBJECT: NIINISTO SEES A TOUGH ROAD FOR THE CONSERVATIVES REF: HELSINKI 75 Classified By: POLCHIEF GREGORY THOME FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Conservative Party's (CONS) most popular candidate, Sauli Niinisto, told the Ambassador that CONS is likely to remain in opposition following the March parliamentary election. The Finnish Center Party (CEN) will win, he suggested, but the Social Democrats (SDP) -- even if they finish second -- are so entrenched in government that they can still operate as the power behind the throne. Niinisto downplayed widespread speculation that his return to domestic politics has caused a power struggle in his own party, alluding frequently to Chairman Katainen's clear leadership role. Niinisto's entry into the race has been the Conservatives' brightest hope this election season, and his sober assessment of their chances may be the best indicator that a CEN/SDP governing coalition is likely to continue after the March contests. END SUMMARY. Slim Chances for the Conservatives -------------- ¶2. (U) Ambassador Ware hosted Sauli Niinisto for lunch Feb. 12. Niinisto has clearly emerged as the Conservative's leading contender and best hope for the upcoming March parliamentary election. A former Finance Minister, EU Central Banker and near-winner in last year's presidential election, Niinisto's entry into the election has buoyed CONS and added momentum to its campaign (reftel). ¶3. (SBU) Despite his wide popularity in Finland and his reputation as an outstanding campaigner, Niinisto was sober in his assessment of the Conservatives' chances to return to government. In order to join the coalition, CONS would have to "beat the SDP and come in second," he said. Even if CONS were to gain several seats at the SDP's expense, it would be very difficult politically for the Center Party to "reach around the Social Democrats" and choose CONS as its governing partner if the SDP held on to second place. Niinisto strongly suggested that the Center Party is likely to win, based both on the public's general satisfaction with the current CEN-SDP coalition as well as on the strength of the enormously popular CEN Prime Minister, Matti Vanhanen. Indeed, he acknowledged, economic times have been good and the current cabinet has performed well, making it hard for CONS, as the largest opposition party, to mount a convincing campaign. The SDP Still Calls the Shots -------------- ¶4. (C) But if CEN is the favorite, SDP is still the kingmaker. Niinisto said that even if the Social Democrats do not win outright, they enjoy such an entrenched tradition of serving in government -- and of pulling government's strings -- that, in effect, they still call the shots. As an example, Niinisto noted that following last year's presidential elections, President Halonen scolded him for running a campaign that was too tough and too personal. Her accusation stunned Niinisto, not only because he nearly scored an upset victory, but also because in his opinion the campaign was tough but totally issue-based -- never personal. In retrospect, he said, he concluded that the President and the other SDP leaders are so accustomed to being in power that a real challenge from any other party is almost viewed as a lack of respect. ¶5. (SBU) As part of the same analysis, Niinisto noted that several SDP candidates have sharply criticized the concept of a "non-socialist" or "bourgeois" coalition, which some pundits and candidates have floated as the best means for CONS and CEN to join forces and unseat the SDP (see reftel). Niinisto himself dismissed the possibility of such a coalition, noting that many issues still separate CEN and CONS and that, again, CONS would need a strong second-place finish to gain the credibility necessary for moving from opposition to government. However, he characterized the SDP's shrill reaction as yet another example of its leaders simply being offended that CONS and CEN would consider such a bold challenge to SDP dominance. No Power Struggles -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Niinisto did not specifically address the wide speculation that his sudden and warmly received return to domestic politics has caused a power struggle -- and HELSINKI 00000094 002 OF 002 even rumors of a possible change in leadership -- within his own party. But he made a clear effort on several occasions to suggest to the Ambassador that Chairman Jyrki Katainen is clearly in charge. He referred to Katainen's strong leadership, his good campaign skills, and his command of both the issues and the party's overall strategy. He praised Katainen's skill in winning the youth vote for the party -- something he joked that he is not as skilled at (Katainen is 35 and Niinisto is 58). Nevertheless, Niinisto knows he is the CONS standard bearer in the voters' eyes and that he will be a significant player regardless of whether the party gets into government or not. He even went so far as to suggest that if the unlikely occurred and CONS did return to government, he would welcome being named either Speaker of Parliament or Foreign Minister. Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Niinisto is a strong campaigner, a veteran politician who has served both in opposition and in government, and he is clearly the Conservatives' best hope to pick up seats in the upcoming election. For all these reasons, his sober assessment of CONS's chances may be one of the better indicators that the current CEN/SDP coalition is likely to remain in power after the election. CEN and SDP have worked well -- and worked well together, in the voters' eyes -- and CONS is still the dark horse. Some analysts say that CONS, and Katainen, this year actually have their sights set on the next election when they hope Katainen will be more seasoned and the party better positioned for an upset. ¶8. (SBU) Comment Continued: Perhaps more intriguing is Niinisto's analysis of the SDP's ability to pull strings, even if CEN wins. Many claim that the SDP did just that in 2003, when it came in second and reluctantly conceded the prime ministership, but managed to grab both the Foreign and Finance Ministries -- arguably Finland's most powerful portfolios. Indeed, over the past 40 years, the SDP has only been out of power once -- from 1991 to 1995 -- and on that occasion it actually won the election but stepped aside and allowed CONS and CEN to form the government. Septel will examine whether or not the current SDP leadership - - which is showing some early signs of struggling at this highest levels -- is still in position to play the kingmaker role. WARE