FINLAND: OSCE MADRID MINISTERIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000848 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2017 TAGS: OSCE PREL PGOV PHUM FI SUBJECT: FINLAND: OSCE MADRID MINISTERIAL REF: STATE 157672 Classified By: Polchief Greg Thome for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: With its chairmanship only five weeks away, the GOF is realistic about the fact that few if any miracles will emerge from the Madrid Ministerial, and that Finland will be left to manage a range of divisive issues. Finland is in "complete agreement" with our emphasis on maintaining an OSCE presence on Kosovo. The GOF has set aside funds for an OSCE Central Asia border mission, but feels that other EU countries are not stepping up. The GOF agrees with the US that the OSCE should do more in Afghanistan, but reaching consensus at the Madrid Ministerial will be difficult. Finland sees agreement on a "package" approach to the 2009-2010-2011 OSCE chairs at Madrid as urgent, because "deal-making will only get harder" after that. Despite Russia,s pressure, Finland will seek to keep the door open to NGO participation, in accordance with the OSCE's 1992 Guidelines on NGO Partnership. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) PolChief delivered subject demarche to Aleksi Harkonen, Director of the Finnish MFA's OSCE Chairmanship Task Force, Nov. 23. With its OSCE Chairmanship only five weeks away, Finland hopes that several of the thorniest issues currently facing the Organization can be resolved -- or at least significantly advanced -- at the Madrid Ministerial. However, Harkonen expressed no naivety in this regard, fully recognizing that Finland will be in the tough position of managing several of the most divisive issues facing the OSCE when the GOF assumes the chairmanship on Jan. ¶1. Balkans -------------- ¶3. (C) The GOF "completely agrees" with the US views that the OSCE must maintain a robust presence in Kosovo and that there is no organization prepared to adequately replace OmiK. Finland has engaged in bilateral consultations at the Director General level with Russia and Serbia, expressing to both the fact that it is in everyone's interest -- and particularly the ethnic Serbs in Kosovo -- that the OSCE remain, Harkonen reported. Neither the Russians nor the Serbs appeared prepared to accept that argument, and Russian FM Lavrov went so far as to suggest to Finnish FM Ilkka Kanerva during a bilateral Nov. 16 that the OSCE would have to withdraw if Kosovo declared unilateral independence, Harkonen said. The GOF believes that the OSCE mission could 
be reduced once the EU mission in Kosovo begins to stand up (a point it has NOT raised with Moscow or Belgrade). Harkonen opined that ultimately the Russians may not take too hard a line on the OSCE in Kosovo -- Lavrov's tough talk notwithstanding -- given that they much prefer an OSCE presence to an EU presence. ¶4. (SBU) On Croatia, Harkonen said Finland supported drawing down the OSCE presence with an eye toward ending the mission in the second half of 2008. Afghanistan / Central Asia -------------- ¶5. (C) Finland strongly supports an OSCE border-strengthening mission in Central Asia and warmly welcomed the emphasis our points placed on it. Harkonen said that Finland is so enthusiastic that it has set aside "half a million Euros" for the project and designated administrators and law enforcement trainers for the job. However, he added, "we feel a little lonely," given that very few OSCE member states -- particularly those who are also EU members -- have stepped up with offers of funds or personnel. Harkonen was also open-minded about an OSCE mission inside Afghanistan, but noted that there is "likely to be no consensus on activities inside Afghanistan." Russia remains adamant that the OSCE should do nothing outside OSCE territory. And despite the fact that OSCE activity in Afghanistan would make a lot of sense, the Russian view "finds a lot of sympathy," including throughout the EU. OSCE Chairmanship Questions -------------- ¶6. (C) Spain's latest "Package Approach" to post-Finland OSCE Chairmanships is now: Greece in 2009; Kazakhstan in 2010; Lithuania in 2011. This is not an ideal approach, Harkonen said, especially if the Package is put forward without any caveats on Kazakhstan's behavior or reforms before 2010. Nevertheless, Finland, for its part, sees the adoption of some sort of Package at Madrid as urgent, given that "deal making will only get harder" the longer the issue remains unresolved. In addition, the longer the Kazak question is left open, the longer Russia will use the Chairmanship question as an excuse to keep other, unrelated issues open, Harkonen added. For these reasons, Finland is likely to support whatever "package" emerges in Madrid. (EMBASSY COMMENT: We also know that the GOF absolutely does not want to find itself in a position of having to pass judgment on Kazakhstan's reform efforts during its presidency -- yet another reason the GOF will likely support whatever package emerges. END COMMENT.) NGOs -------------- ¶7. (C) The GOF was pleased with the emphasis the US places on keeping the door open to NGOs, and FM Kanerva has expressed a personal commitment to ensuring maximum NGO participation in the OSCE, Harkonen said. Kanerva raised the issue in his recent meeting with Lavrov, assuring the Russian that the GoF would be strictly guided by the OSCE's 1992 Guidelines on NGO Participation, but also emphasizing that the Guidelines were designed to include NGOs, not exclude them. This has become a particularly delicate issue for the GOF because the Russian-Chechnyan Friendship Society -- banned in Russia -- has now registered itself as a Finnish NGO, and the GOF fully supports its participation in appropriate OSCE events. WARE