DEMARCHE TO SUPPORT UN KOSOVO PROPOSALS -- FINNISH

C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000232 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV UNMIK UN YI EU FI SUBJECT: DEMARCHE TO SUPPORT UN KOSOVO PROPOSALS -- FINNISH RESPONSE REF: STATE 37835 Classified By: PolChief Gregory Thome, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Finland increasingly expects Russia to block any UNSC action to implement UN Special Envoy Ahtisaari's final status recommendations for Kosovo. The Finns are also dismayed by eleventh hour hesitation from some EU member states -- especially Italy, a Contact Group member. No EU country is more committed to supporting Ahtisaari's recommendations than is Finland, and the GOF hopes the US will use its leverage to bring Italy back to the fold within the Contact Group. Russia, however, will be a tougher sell. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) PolChief delivered subject demarche to Balkans Office Director Juha Ottman March 27. Ottman said that the GOF fully supports all our points; remains fully committed to supporting UN Special Rep Martti Ahtisaari; and understands that EU-US unity is the only hope for winning support for a UNSCR to implement Ahtisaari's proposals. PESSIMISTIC ABOUT A UNSCR -------------- ¶3. (C) That said, Ottman expressed pessimism about Russia's intentions at the UNSC. Without a full Serbian endorsement, the GOF now believes that the GOR will block a UNSCR, either by "promoting" a lack of consensus among UNSC members which prevents a resolution from even coming forward, or simply by vetoing it. Russian officials have suggested that China might be leaning toward following Russia's lead in opposition to Ahtisaari's recommendations. However, Ottman disputed this; China and the non- permanent UNSC members would follow the lead of the US, the EU and Russia, if all were united. But without such unity, others might waver. ITALY SENDS CONFLICTING SIGNALS -------------- ¶4. (C) Equally worrying to Finland is the flagging resolve of certain EU member states. Italy, in particular, is sending conflicting signals, Ottman said. On the one hand, Rome says within the Contact Group that it is fully on board behind Ahtisaari's final status recommendations; on the other, Italy has indicated to Russia and to others that it might be interested in "re-opening" and reconsidering certain of Ahtisaari's key proposals, including decentralization and possibly even a UN seat for Kosovo. Italy's hesitation is also weakening resolve in Slovakia, Cyprus, Romania and to a lesser extent Greece, Ottman added, although Italy remains the most worrisome because of its position in the Contact Group. A "PHASED APPROACH" IS DANGEROUS -------------- ¶5. (C) Ottman also rejected any "phased approach" to implementing Ahtisaari's recommendations, highlighting in particular the dangers this would pose to mounting an UNMIK follow-on mission. Regardless of whether UNMIK is replaced by the EU or the UN, lack of final status would make it very difficult for many EU member states to contribute. Especially in the case of an EU mission, the "phased approach" would "chain the EU to an indefinite mission with no mandate for a way forward, under potentially very hostile conditions," Ottman noted. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) For obvious reasons, no EU country is more committed than Finland to supporting the hard work and final proposals of Ahtisaari, Finland's former president. And while a problematic Russian response to Ahtisaari's recommendations does not come as a shock, the Finns are deeply troubled by emerging fissures within the EU. During the Finnish EU Presidency, the GOF was well placed to press hesitant member states like Italy to maintain a unified response. However, no longer in that position, Finland hopes that the US will use its leverage within the Contact Group to bring Italy back to the fold. As our contact phrased it, there is no getting a UNSCR without a unified approach from the EU, the US and Russia; but there is no getting Russia on board without a unified US-EU approach. End Comment. WARE