FINLAND ELECTION 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HELSINKI 000172 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL FI SUBJECT: FINLAND ELECTION 2007 REF: A. HELSINKI 150 ¶B. HELSINKI 94 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: For months, both the polls and conventional wisdom have suggested that Finland's Center Party (CEN) and Social Democrats (SDP) will finish one- two in the March 18 elections and return to government. In the final weeks of the campaign, CEN has indeed consolidated its lead, but the SDP has suffered major public relations damage, thanks to a union-sponsored public service ad. History and bureaucratic advantages still favor the Social Democrats' getting themselves into government, but for the first time the slim possibility of an upset has emerged. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) For more than 60 years, it has been something of a foregone conclusion going into any parliamentary election that the SDP would emerge as the driving player in the resulting coalition government, regardless of who might actually win a plurality of seats. A series of historical and bureaucratic advantages have accrued to the SDP over the decades, allowing the party a certain pride of place -- some opponents even criticize it as a self-ascribed "divine right" -- regarding its persistent presence in government (Ref B). Throughout the current campaign, Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen's CEN has appeared likely to win a plurality at the polls, but this long-standing conventional wisdom regarding the SDP has led most to assume it will take a strong, if not dominant, role in a new CEN-SDP government. A PR DEBACLE -------------- ¶3. (SBU) However, in these final two weeks before the election, the SDP has suffered an unexpected public relations disaster. In late February, the "allegedly apolitical" Finnish Confederation of Labor Unions (SAK) began running "allegedly apolitical" get-out-the-vote public service messages on TV and in print urging all Finns to exercise their civic duty. The ads, however, featured an obese, elderly, smirking, "bourgeois" tycoon sitting in luxurious surroundings before a glutton-like spread of food and liquor. Aloof and arrogant, he sneers, "No, don't go out and vote -- just let me decide everything for you." ¶4. (U) By US standards, not remotely an offensive advertisement -- but in Finland it provoked an uproar. Editorial pages and talk shows brimmed for days with angry attacks accusing the SAK of classism; ageism; anti-bourgeois scare tactics; anti-entrepeneurism; gluttony; poor taste; elitism; and even attempts to recall the bitter social divisions in Finland that followed the 1918 civil war between the Communist "Reds" and the land- and business-owning "Whites." ¶5. (U) Accusations also abounded that the SDP -- and particularly Party Leader Eero Heinaluoma -- was behind the ad. In theory, the SAK is independent. However, its members overwhelming vote SDP and several leading SDP politicians (including President Tarja Halonen) first rose to prominence within the SAK. Heinaluoma was Secretary General until only four years ago, and he owes SIPDIS his rapid rise as party leader to the SDP's powerful labor wing. Given this close association with SAK, Heinaluoma was quickly accused of underwriting the offensive ads, intensifying an already-negative public image that the SDP leader and de facto PM candidate has been unable to shake. He has not confirmed or denied involvement with the ad -- a wise move, one prominent commentator noted, given that even if he had nothing to do with the ads, no one would believe him. For its part, SAK responded humbly and contritely (and some argue brilliantly),withdrawing the ad and issuing in its place a spot that apologized for any offense and simply encouraged people to vote. Conservative Momentum; SDP Malaise -------------- ¶6. (U) The nasty ad is gone, but the damage is done. The first major poll following the ad's release, commissioned by the Finnish Broadcasting Company, showed CEN likely to attract 24.6 percent of the vote, followed by the SDP at 22.6 percent and the Conservative Party (CONS) at 21.9. Based on a 2-point margin of error, CONS and SDP are now in a statistical dead heat. Only six weeks ago, CEN and SDP were statistically tied for the lead, with CONS trailing by more than five points. The Conservatives' gain (or the SDP's loss, depending on one's perspective) is the result of many factors, including the return of Sauli Niinisto as a CONS HELSINKI 00000172 002 OF 002 candidate and Heinaluoma's aforementioned failure to develop any personal rapport with voters. But no one is discounting the SAK ad either. ¶7. (SBU) An SDP failure to get into government would still constitute a major upset by any measure, but for the first time there are whispers both inside and outside the party that the possibility exists. CONS candidates, who a month ago were talking even in public of perhaps returning to government in 2011, suddenly feel a bit of wind at their backs. As one candidate told us, "Second place was the SDP's to lose -- and maybe they've actually gone and done that." On the other hand, a certain malaise has crept into the SDP camp. Although still confident of their inherent advantages, SDP politicians acknowledge that nothing good can come of the SAK flap or of Heinaloma's enduring unpopularity. FM Tuomioja -- the closest thing the SDP has to a "superstar" in the electorate's eyes -- even lamented recent developments to the Ambassador. "It is no longer a sure thing that my party will get into government. I'm just focusing now on getting myself and maybe a few others into parliament," he said, referring to the SDP's high expectations for his coat tails. COMMENT: HEDGING THE FINAL BET -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The SAK ad disaster and the narrowing of the gap between CONS and SDP has injected a note of excitement into the campaign. However, long-time observers caution that the polls always tighten as election day nears, and the safe money is probably still on CEN to win; SDP to place; and CONS to show. If this is the case, the return of a CEN-SDP led coalition seems likely. Still, the slim possibility of a surprise or even an upset -- either at the polls or in the coalition negotiations -- has become real for the first time. If CONS overtakes the SDP or even draws to within a parliamentary seat or two, all bets on what follows in terms of the new government could be off. HYATT