FINNISH RESPONSE - RESPONDING TO RUSSIAN THREATS

C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000144 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR ALL NATO POST COLLECTIVE, EUR A/S DAN FRIED, A/S PAULA DESUTTER, A/S ISN JOHN ROOD, NSC/ DAVID STEPHENS AND JUDY ANSLEY, AND OSD/P BRIAN GREEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2017 TAGS: MARR PREL EZ PL FI SUBJECT: FINNISH RESPONSE - RESPONDING TO RUSSIAN THREATS AGAINST MISSILE DEFENSE IN POLAND AND THE CZECH REPUBLIC REF: SECSTATE 21640 Classified By: POLCHIEF GREGORY THOME FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) DCM delivered subject demarche to Finnish MFA Undersecretary for Political Affairs Markus Lyra on March ¶1. Lyra thanked the US for sharing detailed information regarding the missile defense assets that are to be deployed as well as regarding the extensive consultations the US has held with Russia regarding our plans. He expressed appreciation that Finland was included among the small group of non-NATO allies with whom the information had been shared. ¶2. (C) Lyra noted that Finland fully understands that the missile defense assets to be deployed in Poland and the Czech Republic are defensive with no offensive capabilities -- and that they are not designed to defend against Russia. Finnish technical experts had already assured the MFA that both geography and the laws of physics indicated that these weapons could only be designed to defend against ballistic missile attacks originating from elsewhere. Lyra added that Finland and the EU viewed Russian threats to withdraw from the INF as particularly unhelpful, but added that such statements were "probably not realistic." In his view, Moscow is upset about NATO expansion and frustrated about the fact that Russia is "behind the US and NATO" in terms of nuclear and conventional weapons capabilities; because of this frustration, they have made comments about the INF that are "emotional not logical." However, he continued, the Russians know that withdrawing from the INF would not serve their purposes. ¶3. (C) In response to DCM's request that the GOF consider making a public statement to "calm the waters" on the missile defense issue, Lyra pointed to a public comment FM Erkki Tuomioja made last week indicating that the GOF understood that the assets in question were in no way intended for offensive purposes. Although he agreed to pass on our request to the FM, he could not promise additional statements. Lyra noted though -- with parliamentary elections only two weeks away -- questions on this issue could indeed arise and our fact-based points would be of use in responding accurately. WARE